Vancouver Canucks

Pacific · 25-49-8, 58 pts

82 GP · 8th Pacific
2025-26 · regular season

Adjusts with rink filters

shots for◀ 5v5 offense

shots against5v5 defense ▶

How to read this map

One rink, both ends: what VAN generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per game. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league, the league baseline at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · • on net · ◦ missed · small • blocked.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout, and the strength buckets segregate them anyway — which is why the empty-net control greys out unless the view can actually contain one. Everything inside the outlined box moves with the filters; everything below it does not.

Observed production

5v5 · regular season

for against

axis spans ±31% of league average · centre = average · right = more

Goalsteam

131 3rd pctl210 100th pctl

Shotsteam

1,601 13th pctl1,945 94th pctl

Attemptsteam

3,504 22nd pctl4,038 91st pctl

xGteam

146.5 6th pctl200.7 100th pctl

xGF%share of team xG

42.2%3rd pctl

0% 50% = even split · gray = league middle 50% / 90% 100%

Percentiles and the gray spread rank against all 32 teams recomputed under the current filter — every bar and band here moves together, so a slice never ranks against a different slice's league.

Rolling xGF%

5v5 · regular season

Per-game chance share, smoothed. drag the slider to set the window

Model estimates

🔒 full season · 5v5

Season-long ratings — the filters above don't apply here. goals vs league average · bar grows from average

Shootingour skaters · on our shots

+4.625th pctl

3,504 attempts · 100% by rated shooters

Savingour goalies · on shots faced

+2.019th pctl

Kevin Lankinen 2,139 · Nikita Tolopilo 984 · Thatcher Demko 863 · Jiri Patera 52 shots faced

Shooting againsttheir skaters · on shots faced

-11.53rd pctl

sign-flipped — positive means they shot worse than average

Saving againsttheir goalies · on our shots

-6.294th pctl

negative means their goalies stopped more than average

−23league average+23

These four are not centred at zero: the league average of each sits well away from it, and the two against columns barely vary between teams, since every team faces roughly average opposition. So the level of a bar is not the signal — its rank is. They are shown because they genuinely move adjusted xGF% below, and folding them into the two own-team rows would have hidden half of that.

Adjusted xGF%skill-weighted chance share

40.8%3rd pctl · -1.37 pp

0% 50% = even split · gray = league middle 50% / 90% 100%

How it's built, and what it isn't

unadjusted 42.2% +shooting +0.76+saving against -1.02+shooting against -1.35+saving +0.23 = adjusted 40.8%

How it's builtEvery 5v5 shot is re-scored with σ(logit(xG) + shooter − goalie) and both ends re-summed. Both skill terms land on every shot — one team's for side, the other's against side — so the league share still averages 50%. The two moves are taken in that order and sum exactly to the total; shares don't decompose additively, so a side-by-side split would not close.

What it isn'tA descriptive re-score of shots already taken, not a forecast. Against future goal share the combined adjustment is indistinguishable from plain xGF% (+0.019 r, p = 0.192); only the shooting half shows a small honest lift (+0.026, p = 0.020), and the saving half contributes nothing forward-looking. The premise underneath is itself unestablished — xGF% over GF% is +0.040, p = 0.246. Read it as what this roster's skill was worth on these shots — nothing more.

The four segments are the four rows above, in order. They are four and not two because η puts both rating terms on every shot: the shots we took carry our shooters and the opposing goalie, and the shots we faced carry their shooters and ours. Over a full season the two “against” terms would sit near league average and contribute nothing — but the ratings are not centred at zero this season, so they do move the number, and hiding them inside a single “shots faced” figure would have left half the adjustment unexplained.

Season context

descriptive · not modeled

How the season was played, not how well. Not a modeled component: each is its own metric (a rate, a TOI share, or opponents' net xG-RAPM), shown with a league percentile only where one exists, never added together. Not a grade.

Ice timeshare by strength

5v5 80%PPPK

+0.7PP − PK min/60

Score stateTOI by game state

trail 44%tied 35%lead 21%

trails a lot

Goalie workloadstarter's share of shots

53%of 5v5 shots against

Schedule strengthopponents' net xG-RAPM

not available in the pipeline

—

0league average100 pctl

Full table · all numbers

Family	Stat	Value (current slice)
Observed ◆ filtered	Goals for / against	131 / 210
Observed ◆ filtered	xG for / against	146.5 / 200.7
Observed ◆ filtered	Shots for / against	1,601 / 1,945
Observed ◆ filtered	Attempts for / against	3,504 / 4,038
Modeled 🔒 5v5	Shooting — our skaters · on our shots	+4.6 G 25th pctl
Modeled 🔒 5v5	Saving — our goalies · on shots faced	+2.0 G 19th pctl
Modeled 🔒 5v5	Shooting against — their skaters · on shots faced	-11.5 G 3rd pctl
Modeled 🔒 5v5	Saving against — their goalies · on our shots	-6.2 G 94th pctl
Modeled 🔒 5v5	Unadjusted xGF%	42.2%
Modeled 🔒 5v5	↳ shooting shift	+0.76 pp
Modeled 🔒 5v5	↳ saving against shift	-1.02 pp
Modeled 🔒 5v5	↳ shooting against shift	-1.35 pp
Modeled 🔒 5v5	↳ saving shift	+0.23 pp
Modeled 🔒 5v5	Adjusted xGF%	40.8% 3rd pctl
Context	Ice time — share by strength	+0.7
Context	Score state — TOI by game state	trails a lot
Context	Goalie workload — starter's share of shots	53%
Context	Schedule strength — opponents' net xG-RAPM	—

Observed values reflect the active rink filters; modeled values are fixed at their full-season 5v5 fit.

Modeled ratings come from joint__baseline_xg__42ccb89b (as of 2026-06-14) — a separate surface from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.