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Playoff and Cup odds

The rest of the season played out 20,000 times from today's standings (311 games played, 1,033 to go), each game priced by the same model that makes the daily pregame calls, then the playoffs played out through the real bracket. Updated every morning.

The race

Atlantic

0%25%50%75%100%Nov 10Nov 14TOR — Playoffs 2% on 2026-11-14TOR2%DET — Playoffs 2% on 2026-11-14DET2%BUF — Playoffs 56% on 2026-11-14BUF56%FLA — Playoffs 59% on 2026-11-14FLA59%MTL — Playoffs 70% on 2026-11-14MTL70%OTT — Playoffs 73% on 2026-11-14OTT73%BOS — Playoffs 80% on 2026-11-14BOS80%TBL — Playoffs 98% on 2026-11-14TBL98%

Metropolitan

0%25%50%75%100%Nov 10Nov 14PHI — Playoffs 5% on 2026-11-14PHI5%NYI — Playoffs 9% on 2026-11-14NYI9%CBJ — Playoffs 14% on 2026-11-14CBJ14%PIT — Playoffs 21% on 2026-11-14PIT21%NYR — Playoffs 52% on 2026-11-14NYR52%WSH — Playoffs 76% on 2026-11-14WSH76%NJD — Playoffs 85% on 2026-11-14NJD85%CAR — Playoffs >99% on 2026-11-14CAR>99%

Central

0%25%50%75%100%Nov 10Nov 14CHI — Playoffs 0% on 2026-11-14CHI0%UTA — Playoffs 28% on 2026-11-14UTA28%WPG — Playoffs 48% on 2026-11-14WPG48%STL — Playoffs 59% on 2026-11-14STL59%NSH — Playoffs 76% on 2026-11-14NSH76%DAL — Playoffs 82% on 2026-11-14DAL82%MIN — Playoffs 99% on 2026-11-14MIN99%COL — Playoffs 99% on 2026-11-14COL99%

Pacific

0%25%50%75%100%Nov 10Nov 14VAN — Playoffs 0% on 2026-11-14VAN0%CGY — Playoffs 1% on 2026-11-14CGY1%SJS — Playoffs 1% on 2026-11-14SJS1%SEA — Playoffs 8% on 2026-11-14SEA8%LAK — Playoffs 36% on 2026-11-14LAK36%ANA — Playoffs 65% on 2026-11-14ANA65%EDM — Playoffs 99% on 2026-11-14EDM99%VGK — Playoffs >99% on 2026-11-14VGK>99%

Atlantic · Eastern

Team GP Pts Final pts Playoffs Division Round 2 Conf. final Final Cup
TBL Tampa Bay Lightning 19 28 112.9100–125 97.8% 61.6% 61.9% 39.2% 18.4% 10.0%
BOS Boston Bruins 19 27 103.790–117 80.0% 13.5% 36.4% 16.3% 6.0% 2.5%
OTT Ottawa Senators 20 26 101.789–114 73.2% 8.8% 32.7% 14.6% 5.5% 2.4%
MTL Montréal Canadiens 19 28 101.488–115 70.0% 8.1% 25.0% 9.6% 3.2% 1.1%
FLA Florida Panthers 20 24 98.685–111 58.5% 4.2% 24.2% 10.9% 4.1% 1.8%
BUF Buffalo Sabres 19 20 98.285–111 56.1% 3.9% 25.8% 12.6% 5.2% 2.4%
DET Detroit Red Wings 20 17 80.968–94 2.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
TOR Toronto Maple Leafs 21 18 80.167–93 1.9% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Metropolitan · Eastern

Team GP Pts Final pts Playoffs Division Round 2 Conf. final Final Cup
CAR Carolina Hurricanes 20 32 121.3109–133 99.9% 90.4% 76.8% 57.7% 40.7% 27.3%
NJD New Jersey Devils 20 28 104.492–117 84.6% 5.4% 41.3% 13.6% 6.2% 2.5%
WSH Washington Capitals 17 20 101.888–115 76.2% 3.1% 38.0% 13.3% 6.2% 2.8%
NYR New York Rangers 21 25 96.483–109 51.6% 0.9% 20.7% 6.7% 2.6% 1.0%
PIT Pittsburgh Penguins 19 16 90.177–103 20.6% 0.1% 7.9% 2.6% 1.0% 0.4%
CBJ Columbus Blue Jackets 17 14 87.874–101 13.6% 0.0% 4.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
NYI New York Islanders 18 20 85.372–99 8.5% 0.0% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
PHI Philadelphia Flyers 21 16 83.971–97 5.3% 0.0% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%

Central · Western

Team GP Pts Final pts Playoffs Division Round 2 Conf. final Final Cup
COL Colorado Avalanche 20 25 113.2101–125 99.0% 47.4% 71.7% 48.1% 31.1% 17.4%
MIN Minnesota Wild 21 32 112.5100–125 98.6% 41.9% 58.7% 27.0% 14.5% 6.3%
DAL Dallas Stars 18 22 101.888–115 82.1% 5.3% 34.5% 15.3% 6.9% 2.5%
NSH Nashville Predators 20 27 100.287–113 75.8% 3.3% 23.3% 8.0% 2.9% 0.7%
STL St. Louis Blues 19 20 96.183–109 58.9% 1.3% 21.6% 8.7% 3.6% 1.2%
WPG Winnipeg Jets 20 21 94.281–107 47.5% 0.7% 15.1% 5.9% 2.1% 0.6%
UTA Utah Mammoth 20 22 90.477–103 28.4% 0.2% 7.5% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
CHI Chicago Blackhawks 19 11 59.446–72 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pacific · Western

Team GP Pts Final pts Playoffs Division Round 2 Conf. final Final Cup
VGK Vegas Golden Knights 21 29 112.4100–124 99.7% 59.8% 69.6% 43.5% 22.0% 10.6%
EDM Edmonton Oilers 20 31 109.697–122 99.3% 38.7% 63.3% 29.9% 12.9% 5.2%
ANA Anaheim Ducks 19 21 92.479–106 65.1% 1.2% 20.7% 6.7% 1.8% 0.5%
LAK Los Angeles Kings 17 12 87.874–101 36.0% 0.3% 12.4% 4.3% 1.4% 0.4%
SEA Seattle Kraken 17 19 79.166–93 7.9% 0.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
SJS San Jose Sharks 21 18 72.159–85 1.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CGY Calgary Flames 19 17 70.157–83 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VAN Vancouver Canucks 21 7 49.737–62 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
How this is made

Every remaining game is priced the way the lab prices it: both teams' current strength, built from the players each team dressed last game, each side's real rest and games in the last six days from the schedule, home ice and the league's current scoring level give each side's expected goals, and the game is played out as a regulation score; a tie goes to overtime or a shootout at the league's rates. Wins are worth 2 points and overtime or shootout losses 1, added to the real standings. The top three in each division and two wild cards per conference make the playoffs, ties broken by points, then regulation wins, then regulation and overtime wins, then goal differential (head-to-head is skipped). Playoff games are played at even rest with no shootout, best of seven, home ice to the better regular season.

How good each team is stays fixed for the whole simulated season; tomorrow's run starts from tomorrow's numbers. But that strength is not known exactly, so each block of simulated seasons first draws every team's strength from its own uncertainty: a team the model is less sure of gets a wider spread of finishes. The spread is that uncertainty plus the luck of the roughly 65 games each team has left. A trade, a call-up or a long injury moves a team's strength the morning after it shows up in a lineup. As of 2026-11-14 · ratings as of 2026-11-13 · 20,000 simulated seasons · schedule as published before the season (1344 games).