xJawn NHL expected goals
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Teams · ratings

Updated after every game. Green is better than today's league average, red is worse, and ± is one standard deviation · as of 2026-11-14.

This season is what each team has done: the record off the games ledger (regular season), goals and expected goals in all situations, and its special teams as goals per 60 minutes of power-play time (for) and penalty-kill time (against). All situations, 5v5, Power play and Penalty kill are its expected goals in each: TOI per game, expected goals for and against, its share (xGF%) and for less against (Net), the Players table's columns at team grain. The forecast is the ratings' read of what the team is, in one currency, goals per 82 games against today's league average: the dressed roster's player forecasts summed at their own deployment, plus the coach term and the franchise conversion state, so GAA is exactly the sum of the six columns after it. Shooting is the roster's finishing (goals scored beyond the expected goals of its attempts); Goaltending is its goalies' saving (goals kept out beyond the expected goals they face). GAR is GAA less the roster's replacement level. The GAA level is calibrated at team grain (report P9): a team's realised goal differential over the rest of the season moves 0.99 goals per goal of it (correlation 0.62), and the ± is the calibrated band on its true rest-of-season rate, game noise excluded — about the same for every team. Every rating is coloured by its side of the league average; the observed counts are not ratings and stay plain. The engine's own rates (xG/60, goals per 100 attempts) are on each team page. Click a header to sort.

State
This season — 2026-27 All situations5v5Power playPenalty kill Forecast — goals / 82 vs league Where the GAA comes from — goals / 82
Team GP W L OTL PTS GF GA PP GF/60 PK GA/60 TOI xGF xGA xGF% Net TOI xGF xGA xGF% Net TOI xGF xGA xGF% Net TOI xGF xGA xGF% Net GAA ± GAR 5v5 off 5v5 def PP PK Shooting Goaltending
CAR Carolina Hurricanes 21 16 3 2 34 87 46 9.94 5.63 60:36 81.8 49.9 62.1% +31.9 48:18 53.1 34.2 60.8% +18.9 5:28 18.9 0.4 97.7% +18.5 5:35 3.0 12.1 20.2% -9.0 +60.7+44.3 27.3— +101.3+84.8 +40.1+36.2 +19.6+16.6 +3.2+1.3 +12.0+13.6 -13.9-17.9 -1.6-6.6
TBL Tampa Bay Lightning 20 13 5 2 28 74 58 6.89 9.30 60:37 71.6 57.6 55.4% +14.0 47:49 46.2 36.2 56.0% +10.0 6:06 14.8 1.2 92.8% +13.6 5:10 1.3 13.2 9.1% -11.9 +56.5+53.7 27.3— +95.7+92.9 +21.8+20.1 +5.1+3.1 -0.1+0.6 +6.1+5.8 +4.1+1.1 +18.6+22.2
MIN Minnesota Wild 22 15 3 4 34 76 48 9.40 7.56 60:33 81.4 63.5 56.2% +17.9 47:15 43.3 42.6 50.4% +0.8 5:48 20.9 1.7 92.3% +19.1 6:29 1.3 17.4 6.8% -16.1 +51.3+48.3 29.1— +93.7+90.7 +3.7+8.6 +14.9+24.0 +3.9+4.5 -1.5-2.2 +5.5+1.5 +24.1+11.8
BOS Boston Bruins 20 13 6 1 27 71 52 7.28 7.45 60:44 62.2 61.0 50.5% +1.2 47:52 43.2 37.6 53.5% +5.6 5:46 12.6 2.2 84.9% +10.4 5:38 0.6 15.2 3.6% -14.6 +43.1+37.6 27.7— +82.0+76.4 +5.6-1.3 +6.6+1.2 -2.5-1.3 +2.3+1.8 +13.3+14.1 +22.5+28.0
OTT Ottawa Senators 21 13 6 2 28 66 61 5.24 7.70 60:49 70.6 61.4 53.5% +9.3 46:12 41.8 37.1 53.0% +4.7 6:33 18.0 1.5 92.3% +16.5 6:19 1.3 16.9 6.9% -15.7 +37.5+32.2 28.2— +78.3+73.0 +4.2+2.4 +13.0+12.5 -1.1-1.3 +6.6+6.8 -3.8-3.6 +14.3+11.4
VGK Vegas Golden Knights 21 13 5 3 29 70 55 9.92 7.42 60:53 72.1 57.2 55.8% +14.9 49:59 45.3 38.5 54.0% +6.8 4:54 16.4 3.1 84.2% +13.3 4:37 3.1 10.6 22.5% -7.5 +34.8+30.9 28.0— +73.8+69.9 +2.7+1.4 +25.2+28.2 +8.6+8.8 +3.9+3.7 +3.3+4.5 -13.2-19.8
EDM Edmonton Oilers 21 15 3 3 33 81 56 14.48 8.45 61:01 63.1 56.5 52.8% +6.6 48:04 34.6 37.8 47.8% -3.2 5:08 18.1 1.1 94.5% +17.0 5:45 1.0 14.5 6.7% -13.5 +33.6+35.5 28.5— +73.4+75.3 -10.6+1.0 +16.4+16.3 +13.9+14.9 +2.1+0.8 +12.8+9.6 -5.5-11.7
DAL Dallas Stars 19 11 6 2 24 53 47 10.29 3.83 61:12 58.1 50.9 53.3% +7.2 47:52 36.2 33.0 52.3% +3.2 4:36 15.6 1.0 93.9% +14.6 6:36 1.5 12.9 10.6% -11.4 +33.5+34.6 27.2— +70.8+71.8 -1.4-3.7 +15.4+15.0 +11.7+10.6 +4.6+3.5 +0.0+2.2 +8.5+11.0
STL St. Louis Blues 20 9 9 2 20 54 59 7.67 5.03 60:22 60.0 58.7 50.6% +1.3 48:42 41.3 37.9 52.2% +3.4 5:28 13.9 1.5 90.1% +12.4 5:22 1.2 13.6 8.2% -12.4 +30.7+28.8 28.3— +70.3+68.4 +3.3+2.0 +2.7+0.0 -4.2-3.9 -0.3+1.2 +8.6+12.1 +22.2+19.6
COL Colorado Avalanche 21 12 6 3 27 85 63 8.70 7.08 60:27 72.2 57.1 55.8% +15.1 48:02 46.5 40.4 53.5% +6.1 6:14 17.5 1.7 91.1% +15.8 5:15 0.8 11.9 6.6% -11.0 +28.0+24.6 26.7— +64.2+60.9 -1.2+0.8 +10.1+10.4 -3.5-3.6 +8.0+7.8 +3.0+0.3 +9.2+6.5
NYR New York Rangers 21 12 8 1 25 64 57 7.39 3.95 60:10 71.0 59.3 54.5% +11.7 48:29 44.3 39.5 52.9% +4.8 5:01 15.9 0.7 95.5% +15.2 5:47 1.0 13.4 7.2% -12.4 +25.4+18.8 29.5— +64.2+57.7 +0.0-6.5 +7.0+7.5 +2.2+1.1 +1.7+1.1 +6.6+9.3 +10.7+9.5
BUF Buffalo Sabres 20 8 8 4 20 55 69 5.12 12.04 61:01 65.4 62.3 51.2% +3.2 47:14 41.2 38.1 51.9% +3.1 5:51 16.4 2.1 88.6% +14.3 5:44 1.5 18.0 7.6% -16.5 +21.4+28.6 27.1— +61.6+68.9 +16.2+16.9 -3.2-1.0 -2.4-4.6 -1.6-0.5 +8.5+13.1 +2.2+2.2
PIT Pittsburgh Penguins 20 7 11 2 16 60 70 6.87 8.90 61:11 62.2 66.5 48.3% -4.3 48:08 44.3 40.3 52.3% +3.9 6:07 12.0 1.3 90.0% +10.7 5:03 1.8 14.2 11.4% -12.4 +13.5+20.9 30.8— +52.2+59.7 +18.1+19.5 -8.0-8.9 -3.1+0.1 +3.2+4.2 +9.6+12.4 -12.1-11.9
FLA Florida Panthers 21 12 7 2 26 69 61 10.14 4.71 60:42 67.8 61.9 52.3% +5.9 44:54 35.8 34.7 50.8% +1.1 7:03 24.2 1.7 93.5% +22.5 7:17 2.1 19.7 9.7% -17.6 +10.0+11.9 27.4— +49.1+50.9 -2.0+1.4 +13.7+18.1 +10.8+8.7 +9.3+11.5 -16.9-20.6 -1.4-3.5
CBJ Columbus Blue Jackets 18 7 11 0 14 43 58 5.92 11.33 60:56 48.3 58.2 45.3% -9.9 49:47 34.8 37.3 48.3% -2.5 5:04 10.5 0.8 92.8% +9.7 4:25 0.7 13.1 5.3% -12.4 +9.6+22.1 27.9— +48.0+60.4 +2.4+3.9 +1.5+6.1 -3.1-3.9 -1.3-1.9 +1.3+3.3 +12.8+18.6
MTL Montréal Canadiens 20 12 4 4 28 66 61 6.54 8.53 60:57 63.3 67.8 48.3% -4.5 46:06 37.5 38.1 49.6% -0.6 5:30 15.7 1.3 92.4% +14.4 7:02 2.3 19.6 10.5% -17.3 +9.4+16.5 28.4— +48.1+55.2 -1.1+1.1 -7.3-4.3 +0.7-0.4 -3.3-4.1 +9.0+8.7 +13.5+17.5
NJD New Jersey Devils 21 15 6 0 30 79 61 7.06 12.11 60:36 76.2 54.1 58.5% +22.1 49:54 48.0 38.2 55.7% +9.8 5:40 19.3 0.9 95.7% +18.5 4:15 0.8 11.0 7.0% -10.2 +7.4+4.5 28.0— +46.5+43.7 +13.7+18.1 +6.5+4.5 +10.8+10.7 +1.3+0.4 -24.3-27.8 -4.5-5.6
NSH Nashville Predators 20 11 4 5 27 60 52 9.25 4.24 61:47 64.2 65.4 49.5% -1.2 48:30 40.1 44.9 47.2% -4.8 5:31 14.7 1.9 88.7% +12.8 5:39 1.2 13.2 8.1% -12.0 +6.2-10.0 28.7— +44.9+28.6 +7.2+1.6 -6.4-3.9 -1.1-1.1 -0.7-2.1 -2.7-1.1 +8.4-4.2
NYI New York Islanders 19 9 6 4 22 59 54 6.28 5.86 61:02 55.4 63.3 46.7% -7.9 48:25 39.3 41.0 48.9% -1.7 5:02 11.8 0.6 95.3% +11.2 5:55 1.6 16.0 8.9% -14.4 +5.8-1.8 29.3— +46.3+38.7 +7.3+1.4 -20.8-19.2 -3.3-3.0 -3.4-5.0 -5.9-8.0 +29.5+29.7
WSH Washington Capitals 18 10 8 0 20 62 65 6.54 8.36 60:16 58.7 65.9 47.1% -7.2 47:06 40.3 38.1 51.4% +2.2 5:36 12.6 1.3 90.5% +11.3 6:23 1.1 17.3 6.1% -16.2 +3.5+4.2 28.0— +43.3+44.1 +25.3+19.6 -13.9-12.7 -1.6-1.0 -6.8-6.6 +15.5+16.5 -11.5-8.0
TOR Toronto Maple Leafs 22 8 12 2 18 69 75 10.12 4.64 60:35 63.2 76.9 45.1% -13.8 48:20 39.8 46.8 46.0% -7.0 4:51 15.4 1.4 91.9% +14.0 5:53 1.5 17.0 8.3% -15.5 +2.6+2.8 28.1— +40.4+40.5 -14.0-11.6 -0.6-5.7 +0.8+0.9 -1.9-2.7 +9.3+9.9 +12.0+14.2
WPG Winnipeg Jets 21 10 8 3 23 65 72 9.57 11.52 60:49 64.7 67.2 49.0% -2.6 48:48 38.1 41.6 47.8% -3.5 5:40 19.2 1.2 94.2% +18.1 4:58 1.4 17.2 7.7% -15.8 -10.6-10.8 30.1— +30.2+30.0 -12.2-13.8 +4.9+2.1 +2.3+0.1 -4.3-3.0 +4.9+3.3 -9.3-2.5
ANA Anaheim Ducks 20 10 9 1 21 73 76 14.35 10.65 60:27 63.7 68.0 48.4% -4.3 46:29 37.3 42.8 46.6% -5.5 5:51 16.4 0.9 94.9% +15.6 7:03 2.0 20.2 9.1% -18.1 -17.6-9.3 27.7— +21.4+29.7 +5.3+5.5 -13.1-9.1 -1.5-3.0 -1.2-1.2 +10.1+6.9 -19.3-11.3
PHI Philadelphia Flyers 22 6 10 6 18 51 71 7.55 6.54 60:50 56.6 72.5 43.8% -15.9 48:21 36.9 46.2 44.4% -9.3 5:25 14.6 2.2 86.7% +12.3 5:50 1.8 16.8 9.8% -14.9 -18.9-18.3 28.8— +22.7+23.3 -12.7-14.8 +12.3+11.1 -3.6-2.6 +2.2+3.5 -11.9-11.2 -4.8-4.4
LAK Los Angeles Kings 18 5 11 2 12 49 63 8.60 14.29 60:41 53.5 54.4 49.6% -0.9 47:47 33.5 33.4 50.0% +0.0 6:12 15.0 0.7 95.7% +14.3 4:54 1.5 11.2 11.6% -9.7 -23.6-23.1 28.1— +15.8+16.3 -12.2-12.2 +9.2+10.2 -6.4-6.0 +0.7-0.7 -11.9-8.7 +1.2-0.8
DET Detroit Red Wings 21 8 10 3 19 55 62 7.17 10.32 61:01 64.2 66.4 49.2% -2.2 48:24 42.4 41.6 50.5% +0.8 5:59 17.3 1.7 91.0% +15.6 5:15 0.6 16.7 3.6% -16.0 -24.8-35.0 27.1— +13.0+2.8 -6.6-13.7 +4.0+5.3 +1.4+0.9 -6.4-6.8 -18.6-16.2 -0.4-7.5
UTA Utah Mammoth 21 10 8 3 23 71 73 14.25 12.55 60:45 72.2 62.0 53.8% +10.2 48:19 48.8 37.1 56.8% +11.7 5:25 17.6 0.7 96.2% +16.9 5:14 1.0 17.2 5.5% -16.2 -29.3-27.9 28.0— +8.0+9.4 +4.8+3.9 +2.3-2.8 -0.9-1.2 -4.4-3.5 -17.2-14.8 -8.3-2.7
CHI Chicago Blackhawks 20 5 13 2 12 46 82 5.42 9.10 60:37 48.2 69.7 40.9% -21.5 48:49 30.9 46.6 39.9% -15.7 4:59 9.9 2.1 82.7% +7.8 5:16 1.7 14.6 10.3% -12.9 -59.8-58.0 27.9— -20.4-18.5 -21.2-14.7 -28.4-36.3 -3.0-2.7 -2.6-3.5 -4.5-5.9 +1.1+6.3
CGY Calgary Flames 20 9 10 1 19 50 68 10.00 6.22 60:15 54.2 64.0 45.8% -9.8 49:27 38.9 42.6 47.8% -3.7 3:54 7.2 1.3 85.1% +6.0 5:47 1.5 13.9 10.0% -12.3 -64.0-72.3 27.6— -27.0-35.4 -15.1-16.8 -20.4-25.8 -7.5-6.5 -1.7-3.6 -9.3-10.4 -3.9-3.8
SEA Seattle Kraken 18 9 8 1 19 57 66 7.24 14.93 60:43 46.3 59.1 43.9% -12.8 49:30 30.6 39.3 43.8% -8.7 5:31 11.1 1.5 87.9% +9.6 4:28 0.1 13.6 0.8% -13.5 -69.2-55.5 30.7— -28.8-15.1 -29.6-21.9 -10.2-11.3 -6.2-5.2 -5.4-5.0 +11.8+10.7 -31.9-24.6
SJS San Jose Sharks 22 9 11 2 20 56 77 6.59 10.44 61:35 62.5 86.4 41.9% -24.0 46:30 37.3 50.5 42.5% -13.2 7:02 16.5 2.7 85.8% +13.8 6:00 2.3 23.8 8.7% -21.5 -74.0-62.0 28.7— -33.9-21.9 -7.7-5.9 -24.9-18.4 -9.0-6.1 -10.5-7.7 -2.5+0.8 -16.1-20.6
VAN Vancouver Canucks 21 3 17 1 7 57 95 7.26 15.78 60:26 48.2 77.8 38.2% -29.6 48:15 31.1 48.9 38.9% -17.8 6:18 13.8 1.3 91.4% +12.5 4:42 0.9 18.2 4.5% -17.3 -132.7-116.8 30.3— -92.1-76.2 -34.1-28.2 -33.1-32.8 -6.4-5.8 -6.5-5.5 +6.2+5.9 -67.1-59.1

Offense vs defense · observed · 2026-27

The League page's own scatter, unchanged: each team at its xGF/60 (right = more offense) vs xGA/60 (up = fewer allowed — the y-axis is inverted) over the newest season with aggregates, all game types. The dashed y = x line is equal offense and defense. The states below are what the engine thinks these same teams are; this is what they did.

State vs state

The offense-vs-defense scatter, drawn on the current states instead of the observed rates, each team with its ± 1 SD whiskers on both axes. Both axes read good-positive, so the strong teams sit top-right and the dashed y = x line is equal offense and defense.