xJawn NHL expected goals

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Brock Boeser

R · Vancouver Canucks · career →

10 GP · 136 min 5v5
2026-27 · 5v5

Small sample. The typical team has played 8 games, so the percentile numbers on the observed rows are hidden until it reaches 10 games. Read the raw counts.

Adjusts with rink filters
on-ice for◀ 5v5 offense
on-ice against5v5 defense ▶
How to read this map

One rink, both ends while Brock Boeser is on the ice: what the team generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per 60 minutes of ice time (a player's exposure is time, not games). The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league, the league baseline per team-hour at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · • on net · ◦ missed · small • blocked — and own shots narrows the left end's markers to attempts Brock Boeser took.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout. On-ice membership comes from the shift charts; attempts without usable shift coverage are absent from both ends. Blocked-shot membership cannot be cross-checked against the play-by-play, so treat blocked-marker detail as softer than the rest.

Observed production

5v5 · on-ice
for against
axis spans ±382% of the forward cohort average · centre = average · right = more
Goalson-ice
3 41st pctl6 82nd pctl
Shotson-ice
48 70th pctl72 99th pctl
Attemptson-ice
110 76th pctl134 95th pctl
xGon-ice
4.0 56th pctl7.2 99th pctl
xGF%share of on-ice xG
35.8%9th pctl
0% 50% = even split · gray = cohort middle 50% / 90% 100%

Percentiles rank against the other forwards over the display floor at the selected strength — a non-strength filter (rush, period, …) moves the bars but keeps that strength's spread as the backdrop.

Rolling on-ice xGF%

5v5 · on-ice
Per-game chance share while on the ice, smoothed. drag the slider to set the window

Model estimates

🔒 2025-26 · frozen
Last season's ratings and goals accounting (2025-26) — 2026-27 is not rated until it has enough games to refit. The observed rows above are 2026-27.
creating   preventing   creates both  ·  paler = special teams  ·  solid = on-ice RAPM · hatched = skill rating  ·  ▽ = the total
Shooting
Conversionall shooter stages
outside the PP +1.37 goals vs averagepower play +0.70 goals vs average
+2.0784th pctl
Offense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGF impact
-2.777th pctl
Defense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGA, flipped
-3.625th pctl
Special teams
Power playST RAPM · 3-season window
+0.9290th pctl
Penalty killST RAPM · season-resolved
+0.2681st pctl
Disciplinedrawn − taken
+0.7063rd pctl
GAAgoals above average, this season
Offense impact -2.77 goals vs averageDefense impact -3.62 goals vs averageConversion · outside the PP +1.37 goals vs averagePower play +0.92 goals vs averageConversion · power play +0.70 goals vs averagePenalty kill +0.26 goals vs averageDiscipline +0.70 goals vs average
-2.4720th pctl
grouped by game state · 5v5 → power play → kill
Not shown — Blocking -0.02 — included in the total.
−18.960 = league average+18.96

Ranked against forwards; the band behind each bar is that cohort's spread (p5–p95, middle half brighter, dashed median), so where a bar lands against its band is the rank — the ordinal beside it makes that exact. Zero is whichever baseline the toggle selects — the league-average skater, or replacement level — and every row, its band and its ordinal are all drawn against that one baseline, so the bar and the number can never describe different things. Each row's bar grows from zero, so its end IS its value; the composite is the rows stacked, running both ways from zero, so only it carries a ▽ to mark the net. The rows sum to the total with nothing left over. The per-shot rating is quality only: it says nothing about how many attempts a player generates or faces, which is what the attempts figure is for.

Faceoff skill

Faceoff skillfitted rating · not in GAA/GAR
45.7%9th pctl
A per-draw skill rating from the faceoff model, shown as the win probability against a league-average taker on a neutral dot. It is not priced in goals and is not part of GAA or GAR: the value of a won draw is shared by everyone on the ice, so this stays a rating.
−0.690 = an average taker+0.69

Usage & context

descriptive · not modeled
The job the coach handed Brock Boeser, not how well it went. Not a modeled component: each is its own metric (minutes, a rate, a TOI share, or opponents'/teammates' net xG-RAPM), shown with a cohort percentile only where one exists, never added together. Not a grade. The deployment rows are measured over the same 5v5 stints the isolate is fit on (regular season + playoffs); ice time and the penalty rates are all situations, every game — penalties create non-5v5 time, so a 5v5 denominator would inflate every rate.
Time on iceall situations · min per game
18:28per game
Penalties takenminor penalties / 60
0.97per 60 · all situations
Penalties drawnminor penalties / 60
0.32per 60 · all situations
Zone startsOZS% · O-zone start share
45%offensive / (off + def)
Score stateTOI by game state
trail 54%tied 25%lead 21%
trails a lot
Competition (QoC)opponents' net xG-RAPM
+0.039xG/60
Teammates (QoT)teammates' net xG-RAPM
-0.248xG/60
On-the-flyshare of 5v5 TOI
63%of 5v5 TOI
0cohort average100 pctl

A skater absent from the fit counts as exactly cohort average (0) in QoC/QoT — the same claim ridge shrinkage makes. Penalty rates are descriptive only: taken-rate includes defensively correct penalties, and neither side is opponent- or deployment-adjusted. Nothing here is priced in goals.

Full table · all numbers
FamilyStatValue (current slice)
Observed ◆ filtered Goals on-ice for / against 3 / 6
Observed ◆ filtered xG on-ice for / against 4.0 / 7.2
Observed ◆ filtered Shots on-ice for / against 48 / 72
Observed ◆ filtered Attempts on-ice for / against 110 / 134
Observed ◆ filteredxGF% 35.8%
Modeled 🔒 season Conversion — all shooter stages +2.07 84th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 205 outside the PP 65th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 118 on the PP 92nd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — per-shot skill 95th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGF impact -2.77 7th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGA, flipped -3.62 5th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Power play — ST RAPM · 3-season window +0.92 90th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Penalty kill — ST RAPM · season-resolved +0.26 81st pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Discipline — drawn − taken +0.70 63rd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season GAA -2.47 20th pctl
ContextTime on ice — all situations · min per game 18:28 (82nd pctl)
ContextPenalties taken — minor penalties / 60 0.97 (67th pctl)
ContextPenalties drawn — minor penalties / 60 0.32 (20th pctl)
ContextZone starts — OZS% · O-zone start share 45% (36th pctl)
ContextScore state — TOI by game state trail 54%, tied 25%, lead 21%
ContextCompetition (QoC) — opponents' net xG-RAPM +0.039 (78th pctl)
ContextTeammates (QoT) — teammates' net xG-RAPM -0.248 (0th pctl)
ContextOn-the-fly — share of 5v5 TOI 63%

Observed values reflect the active rink filters; modeled values are fixed at their full-season fit.

On-ice numbers pair the regular-season shot set with shift-chart membership; skaters and goalies under the display floors are fit but not shown. Modeled rows come from the value artifact keyed to RAPM fit rapm__0cd6d075 on nested_structure__nested_structure_xg__d2ec2662 (the joint-xg structural baseline), with ratings from joint__baseline_xg__f3e3111e (as of 2026-06-14) — separate surfaces from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.