xJawn NHL expected goals

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EDM 2 – 1 VAN

Edmonton Oilers at Vancouver Canucks

Final · Sep 24, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from EDM's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = EDM power play · PK = VAN power play · Leading = EDM ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

EDM attacks◀ all strengths
VAN attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: EDM attacks the left net, VAN the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 246 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from EDM's side and mirrored for VAN: “EDM PP” shows EDM's power-play attempts on the left and VAN's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
EDM VAN
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
2 1
Expected goals
1.85 2.94
xG%share of xG
39% 61%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 3
Shots on goal
21 26
Attempts
37 57
xG by period · whole game 1st0.3–0.92nd1.0–1.23rd0.5–0.9

The Oilers beat the Canucks 2–1 on the road despite being out-created 2.9–1.9 in expected goals. That is a finishing-and-goaltending win. The Canucks power play made 0.9 xG on 13 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative EDM − VAN xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5EDM AHEAD ▲VAN AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative EDM minus VAN expected goals. Above zero EDM is ahead on chances, below zero VAN is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
EDMIsaac Howard 1st3:58 0.07
EDMQuinn Hutson 2nd4:28 0.40
VANLinus Karlsson 2nd6:01 PP 0.33
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

EDM
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5222.52.50Tomas CibulkaD17:00+0.86Quinn HutsonF15:55+0.61Isaac HowardF17:59+0.44Viljami MarjalaF15:24+0.20Eduards TralmaksF11:36+0.11Rudolfs BerzkalnsF11:52-0.06Atro LeppanenD5:26-0.07Damien CarfagnaD25:25-0.14David LewandowskiF12:23-0.20William NichollF7:05-0.29Aku RatyF12:47-0.38Spencer StastneyD25:41-0.51Josh SamanskiF17:45-0.65Connor ClattenburgF15:50-0.70Owen MichaelsF17:48-0.77Riley StillmanD17:51-0.79Max JonesF17:05-0.86Ty EmbersonD26:31-1.65
0.50.5111.51.50Tomas CibulkaD14:43+0.73Quinn HutsonF12:35+0.42Isaac HowardF13:50+0.42Viljami MarjalaF9:56+0.28Eduards TralmaksF9:01+0.00Riley StillmanD12:28-0.03Rudolfs BerzkalnsF11:10-0.06Atro LeppanenD5:26-0.07Aku RatyF9:17-0.18David LewandowskiF11:39-0.20Damien CarfagnaD19:01-0.20William NichollF7:05-0.29Josh SamanskiF13:27-0.30Spencer StastneyD20:54-0.54Owen MichaelsF12:33-0.56Max JonesF12:13-0.57Connor ClattenburgF13:39-0.59Ty EmbersonD19:26-0.98
0.250.250Quinn HutsonF3:20+0.19Isaac HowardF2:49+0.11Viljami MarjalaF2:48+0.11Damien CarfagnaD2:48+0.11Eduards TralmaksF2:35+0.11Ty EmbersonD0:42+0.08Owen MichaelsF0:37+0.08Tomas CibulkaD0:18+0.08Connor ClattenburgF0:16+0.08Max JonesF0:58+0.00Spencer StastneyD0:51+0.00David LewandowskiF0:44+0.00Rudolfs BerzkalnsF0:42+0.00Josh SamanskiF0:27+0.00Riley StillmanD0:05+0.00
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Tomas CibulkaD1:14+0.06Spencer StastneyD2:00-0.03Damien CarfagnaD1:39-0.11Connor ClattenburgF1:06-0.18Viljami MarjalaF1:19-0.24Aku RatyF2:51-0.25Owen MichaelsF3:20-0.28Max JonesF2:21-0.29Josh SamanskiF2:17-0.35Ty EmbersonD4:43-0.74Riley StillmanD4:30-0.75
VAN
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Zeev BuiumD25:05+1.22Linus KarlssonF18:00+0.98Jake DeBruskF17:00+0.91Elias PetterssonF20:48+0.89Jonathan LekkerimakiF11:45+0.83Liam OhgrenF20:24+0.82Marco RossiF19:23+0.49Filip ChytilF4:54+0.39Luke SchennD14:50+0.23Filip HronekD24:22+0.21Guillaume BriseboisD14:38+0.06Victor ManciniD17:37+0.06Braeden CootesF11:14+0.05Brendan GallagherF12:03-0.06Brock BoeserF19:03-0.11Paul CotterF12:03-0.16Jamie OleksiakD17:02-0.39Drew O'ConnorF15:21-0.60
0.50.5110Jake DeBruskF12:58+0.73Elias PetterssonF15:12+0.72Zeev BuiumD18:02+0.63Linus KarlssonF13:50+0.46Jonathan LekkerimakiF8:18+0.31Luke SchennD12:58+0.30Filip ChytilF3:50+0.24Marco RossiF13:44+0.23Liam OhgrenF13:49+0.21Guillaume BriseboisD11:55+0.17Filip HronekD17:38+0.14Victor ManciniD16:14+0.06Brendan GallagherF10:34+0.02Paul CotterF10:25-0.05Jamie OleksiakD14:44-0.31Braeden CootesF8:19-0.32Brock BoeserF13:50-0.32Drew O'ConnorF11:50-0.45
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Zeev BuiumD4:22+0.65Liam OhgrenF3:25+0.61Jonathan LekkerimakiF3:27+0.52Linus KarlssonF3:24+0.52Braeden CootesF2:31+0.37Brock BoeserF3:19+0.26Marco RossiF3:19+0.26Filip HronekD2:34+0.25Jake DeBruskF3:20+0.17Elias PetterssonF3:17+0.17Filip ChytilF1:04+0.15Drew O'ConnorF0:06+0.09Victor ManciniD0:02+0.00
0.250.250Liam OhgrenF1:33+0.00Elias PetterssonF0:48+0.00Victor ManciniD0:30+0.00Braeden CootesF0:24+0.00Jamie OleksiakD2:15-0.08Luke SchennD1:52-0.08Brendan GallagherF1:29-0.08Guillaume BriseboisD1:48-0.11Paul CotterF1:38-0.11Filip HronekD1:33-0.11Drew O'ConnorF2:10-0.19

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

EDM
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
VAN
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
EDM won the chances VAN won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
TolopiloDriedgerBoeserRossiOhgrenDeBruskPetterssonKarlssonGallagherCotterCootesChytilO'ConnorLekkerimakiHronekBuiumBriseboisManciniSchennOleksiakGL1L2L3L4D1D2DGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3JarryHowardSamanskiHutsonJonesClattenburgMichaelsRatyTralmaksMarjalaNichollLewandowskiBerzkalnsStastneyCarfagnaStillmanEmbersonCibulkaLeppanen
How to read this

Rows are EDM's skaters, columns VAN's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.