xJawn NHL expected goals

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Owen Michaels

R · Edmonton Oilers

8 GP · 92 min 5v5
2026-27 · 5v5

Small sample. The typical team has played 8 games, so the percentile numbers on the observed rows are hidden until it reaches 10 games. Read the raw counts.

Adjusts with rink filters
on-ice for◀ 5v5 offense
on-ice against5v5 defense ▶
How to read this map

One rink, both ends while Owen Michaels is on the ice: what the team generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per 60 minutes of ice time (a player's exposure is time, not games). The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league, the league baseline per team-hour at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · • on net · ◦ missed · small • blocked — and own shots narrows the left end's markers to attempts Owen Michaels took.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout. On-ice membership comes from the shift charts; attempts without usable shift coverage are absent from both ends. Blocked-shot membership cannot be cross-checked against the play-by-play, so treat blocked-marker detail as softer than the rest.

Observed production

5v5 · on-ice
for against
axis spans ±382% of the forward cohort average · centre = average · right = more
Goalson-ice
4 53rd pctl5 71st pctl
Shotson-ice
23 15th pctl52 80th pctl
Attemptson-ice
49 13th pctl109 78th pctl
xGon-ice
2.3 18th pctl4.5 68th pctl
xGF%share of on-ice xG
34.1%7th pctl
0% 50% = even split · gray = cohort middle 50% / 90% 100%

Percentiles rank against the other forwards over the display floor at the selected strength — a non-strength filter (rush, period, …) moves the bars but keeps that strength's spread as the backdrop.

Rolling on-ice xGF%

5v5 · on-ice
Per-game chance share while on the ice, smoothed. drag the slider to set the window

On-ice numbers pair the regular-season shot set with shift-chart membership; skaters and goalies under the display floors are fit but not shown. Modeled rows come from the value artifact keyed to RAPM fit rapm__0cd6d075 on nested_structure__nested_structure_xg__d2ec2662 (the joint-xg structural baseline), with ratings from joint__baseline_xg__f3e3111e (as of 2026-06-14) — separate surfaces from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.