xJawn NHL expected goals

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CHI 2 – 3 MIN

Chicago Blackhawks at Minnesota Wild

Final / OT · Sep 19, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from CHI's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = CHI power play · PK = MIN power play · Leading = CHI ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

CHI attacks◀ all strengths
MIN attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: CHI attacks the left net, MIN the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 246 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from CHI's side and mirrored for MIN: “CHI PP” shows CHI's power-play attempts on the left and MIN's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
CHI MIN
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
2 3
Expected goals
2.09 2.88
xG%share of xG
42% 58%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
3 1
Shots on goal
16 26
Attempts
38 60
xG by period · whole game 1st0.5–1.32nd1.0–0.63rd0.4–0.7OT0.2–0.3

The Wild beat the Blackhawks 3–2 in overtime at home, and the chances agreed: MIN out-created CHI 2.9–2.1 in expected goals. At 5v5: CHI 1.3, MIN 2.3.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative CHI − MIN xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RDOT+0.5−0.5+1−1CHI AHEAD ▲MIN AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative CHI minus MIN expected goals. Above zero CHI is ahead on chances, below zero MIN is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
CHIDominic Toninato 1st12:12 0.21
CHIDillon Boucher 2nd4:19 0.19
MINRieger Lorenz 1st7:56 0.22
MINNico Sturm 3rd14:06 0.11
MINTyler Pitlick OT3:58 0.09
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

CHI
against for own net ice time
0.50.5110Dominic ToninatoF20:17+0.59Kevin KorchinskiD25:25+0.24Dillon BoucherF14:06+0.20Landon SlaggertF16:50+0.19Ethan Del MastroD23:55+0.11Marek VanackerF14:46+0.10Brett SeneyF13:50+0.10Gavin HayesF11:33-0.01Martin MisiakF15:41-0.15Dylan AnhornD17:33-0.33Connor MackeyD16:53-0.44Jiri FelcmanF16:41-0.48Connor MylymokF11:13-0.57Jake FurlongD15:45-0.59Anthony (AJ) SpellacyF18:38-0.63Samuel SavoieF12:24-0.63Sacha BoisvertF18:03-0.65Derrick PouliotD18:21-0.69
0.50.5110Dominic ToninatoF10:54+0.25Dillon BoucherF11:45+0.25Landon SlaggertF11:11+0.12Dylan AnhornD11:16+0.07Ethan Del MastroD17:08-0.09Connor MackeyD11:14-0.15Gavin HayesF7:36-0.19Kevin KorchinskiD15:59-0.23Marek VanackerF10:54-0.23Martin MisiakF11:13-0.29Brett SeneyF10:21-0.32Anthony (AJ) SpellacyF9:52-0.37Jiri FelcmanF11:12-0.45Connor MylymokF11:09-0.57Jake FurlongD15:19-0.59Samuel SavoieF11:26-0.63Sacha BoisvertF12:53-0.67Derrick PouliotD15:18-0.81
0.250.250.50.50Dominic ToninatoF3:08+0.27Kevin KorchinskiD3:02+0.27Sacha BoisvertF2:55+0.27Brett SeneyF2:38+0.27Anthony (AJ) SpellacyF2:42+0.22Jiri FelcmanF2:41+0.17Derrick PouliotD2:53+0.12Marek VanackerF2:52+0.12Gavin HayesF2:51+0.12Martin MisiakF2:48+0.12Jake FurlongD0:26+0.00Landon SlaggertF0:25+0.00Dillon BoucherF0:21+0.00Connor MackeyD0:15+0.00Dylan AnhornD0:03+0.00
0.250.250.50.50Ethan Del MastroD3:59+0.14Kevin KorchinskiD3:56+0.14Landon SlaggertF4:21+0.06Dominic ToninatoF4:51+0.06Sacha BoisvertF0:19+0.00Samuel SavoieF0:13+0.00Dillon BoucherF2:00-0.04Jiri FelcmanF1:30-0.20Anthony (AJ) SpellacyF4:09-0.24Connor MackeyD4:42-0.32Dylan AnhornD4:41-0.32
MIN
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Olli MaattaD21:13+0.66Tyler PitlickF13:30+0.57Jagger JoshuaF12:15+0.49Nico SturmF16:16+0.43Hunter HaightF19:57+0.42Matt KierstedD18:19+0.35Mason ShawF14:04+0.30Daemon HuntD23:51+0.27Caedan BankierF15:56+0.25Carson LambosD17:04+0.22Rieger LorenzF15:33+0.21Dylan GambrellF20:11+0.20Justin KirklandF15:00+0.14Roman SchmidtD14:17+0.14Riley HeidtF13:45+0.04Nick FolignoF16:33+0.04Charlie StramelF15:49-0.09David SpacekD20:37-0.43
0.50.5111.51.50Olli MaattaD16:46+1.01Nico SturmF11:57+0.74Matt KierstedD13:58+0.53Jagger JoshuaF12:15+0.49Rieger LorenzF12:19+0.36Mason ShawF13:30+0.30Justin KirklandF8:12+0.26Dylan GambrellF13:55+0.26Carson LambosD14:52+0.22Tyler PitlickF8:17+0.20Daemon HuntD15:42+0.17Caedan BankierF10:30+0.14Roman SchmidtD13:36+0.14Nick FolignoF9:52+0.13Hunter HaightF12:52+0.11Charlie StramelF8:49+0.08Riley HeidtF8:00-0.04David SpacekD11:34-0.20
0.250.250Tyler PitlickF4:30+0.11Justin KirklandF4:29+0.11Caedan BankierF4:27+0.11David SpacekD4:13+0.11Riley HeidtF3:58+0.11Dylan GambrellF4:43+0.07Daemon HuntD4:28+0.07Hunter HaightF4:10+0.07Nick FolignoF4:05+0.07Charlie StramelF4:04+0.07Olli MaattaD0:08+0.00Nico SturmF0:05+0.00
0.250.250.50.50Carson LambosD1:28+0.00Caedan BankierF0:59+0.00Rieger LorenzF0:58+0.00Roman SchmidtD0:41+0.00Hunter HaightF0:36+0.00Mason ShawF0:34+0.00Matt KierstedD3:14-0.12Nick FolignoF2:11-0.16Nico SturmF2:09-0.16David SpacekD2:53-0.17Daemon HuntD1:34-0.22Justin KirklandF2:19-0.23Charlie StramelF2:08-0.23Olli MaattaD2:16-0.27

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

CHI
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
MIN
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
CHI won the chances MIN won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
PickardGambrellShawHaightBankierLorenzJoshuaFolignoSturmStramelPitlickKirklandHeidtSchmidtLambosMaattaHuntKierstedSpacekGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3SoderblomMisiakFelcmanVanackerSavoieBoisvertMylymokSeney(AJ) SpellacyBoucherToninatoSlaggertHayesDel MastroKorchinskiPouliotFurlongMackeyAnhorn
How to read this

Rows are CHI's skaters, columns MIN's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.