xJawn NHL expected goals

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Landon Slaggert

L · Chicago Blackhawks · career →

53 GP · 502 min 5v5
2025-26 · 5v5
Adjusts with rink filters
on-ice for◀ 5v5 offense
on-ice against5v5 defense ▶
How to read this map

One rink, both ends while Landon Slaggert is on the ice: what the team generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per 60 minutes of ice time (a player's exposure is time, not games). The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league, the league baseline per team-hour at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · on net · missed · small blocked — and own shots narrows the left end's markers to attempts Landon Slaggert took.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout. On-ice membership comes from the shift charts; attempts without usable shift coverage are absent from both ends. Blocked-shot membership cannot be cross-checked against the play-by-play, so treat blocked-marker detail as softer than the rest.

Observed production

5v5 · on-ice
for against
axis spans ±200% of the forward cohort average · centre = average · right = more
Goalson-ice
13 9th pctl15 7th pctl
Shotson-ice
154 7th pctl207 13th pctl
Attemptson-ice
347 8th pctl459 12th pctl
xGon-ice
14.3 8th pctl20.9 16th pctl
xGF%share of on-ice xG
40.6%3rd pctl
0% 50% = even split · gray = cohort middle 50% / 90% 100%

Percentiles rank against the other forwards over the display floor at the selected strength — a non-strength filter (rush, period, …) moves the bars but keeps that strength's spread as the backdrop.

Rolling on-ice xGF%

5v5 · on-ice
Per-game chance share while on the ice, smoothed. drag the slider to set the window

Model estimates

🔒 full season · not filtered
Season-long ratings — the filters above don't apply here. goals/60 vs cohort average · bar grows from average
Shootingfinishing · goals/60
-0.096th pctl
↳ attempts
17010th pctl
↳ shooting talent
-0.184th pctl
own attempts × per-shot logit
OffenseRAPM · team xGF/60 impact
-0.1811th pctl
DefenseRAPM · team xGA/60 impact (sign-flipped)
-0.0340th pctl
GAA/60goals above average / 60 · comprehensive
Shooting -0.09 goals/60Offense -0.18 goals/60Defense -0.03 goals/60
-0.315th pctl
the three rows above, stacked — shooting + offense + defense
−0.46average+0.46

Ranked against forwards; the band behind each bar is that cohort's spread (p5–p95, middle half brighter, dashed median), so where a bar lands against its band is the rank — the ordinal beside it makes that exact. The per-shot rating is quality only: it says nothing about how many attempts a player generates or faces, which is what the attempts sub-row is for.

Usage & context

descriptive · not modeled
The job the coach handed Landon Slaggert, not how well it went. Not a modeled component: each is its own metric (minutes, a rate, a TOI share, or opponents'/teammates' net xG-RAPM), shown with a cohort percentile only where one exists, never added together. Not a grade. The deployment rows are measured over the same 5v5 stints the isolate is fit on (regular season + playoffs); ice time and the penalty rates are all situations, every game — penalties create non-5v5 time, so a 5v5 denominator would inflate every rate.
Time on iceall situations · min per game
10:32per game
Penalties takenminor penalties / 60
0.43per 60 · all situations
Penalties drawnminor penalties / 60
0.97per 60 · all situations
Zone startsOZS% · O-zone start share
42%offensive / (off + def)
Score stateTOI by game state
trail 37%tied 38%lead 25%
often tied
Competition (QoC)opponents' net xG-RAPM
-0.003xG/60
Teammates (QoT)teammates' net xG-RAPM
-0.088xG/60
On-the-flyshare of 5v5 TOI
67%of 5v5 TOI
0cohort average100 pctl

A skater absent from the fit counts as exactly cohort average (0) in QoC/QoT — the same claim ridge shrinkage makes. Penalty rates are descriptive only: taken-rate includes defensively correct penalties, and neither side is opponent- or deployment-adjusted. Nothing here is priced in goals.

Full table · all numbers
FamilyStatValue (current slice)
Observed ◆ filtered Goals on-ice for / against 13 / 15
Observed ◆ filtered xG on-ice for / against 14.3 / 20.9
Observed ◆ filtered Shots on-ice for / against 154 / 207
Observed ◆ filtered Attempts on-ice for / against 347 / 459
Observed ◆ filteredxGF% 40.6%
Modeled 🔒 season Shooting — finishing · goals/60 -0.09 6th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ attempts (own attempts) 170 10th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ shooting talent (per-shot logit) -0.18 4th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Offense — RAPM · team xGF/60 impact -0.18 11th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Defense — RAPM · team xGA/60 impact (sign-flipped) -0.03 40th pctl
Modeled 🔒 seasonGAA/60 -0.31 5th pctl
ContextTime on ice — all situations · min per game 10:32 (8th pctl)
ContextPenalties taken — minor penalties / 60 0.43 (22nd pctl)
ContextPenalties drawn — minor penalties / 60 0.97 (69th pctl)
ContextZone starts — OZS% · O-zone start share 42% (25th pctl)
ContextScore state — TOI by game state trail 37%, tied 38%, lead 25%
ContextCompetition (QoC) — opponents' net xG-RAPM -0.003 (28th pctl)
ContextTeammates (QoT) — teammates' net xG-RAPM -0.088 (12th pctl)
ContextOn-the-fly — share of 5v5 TOI 67%

Observed values reflect the active rink filters; modeled values are fixed at their full-season fit.

On-ice numbers pair the regular-season shot set with shift-chart membership; skaters and goalies under the display floors are fit but not shown. Modeled rows come from the value artifact keyed to RAPM fit rapm__c5b9b663 on flat__joint_structure_xg__4f64c88b (the joint-xg structural baseline), with ratings from joint__baseline_xg__42ccb89b (as of 2026-06-14) — separate surfaces from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.