xJawn NHL expected goals

← Preseason

Minnesota Wild

Central · 1-3

4 GP
2026-27 · preseason

Small sample. The typical team here has played 4 games, so the bars below only rank the 32 teams that have played against each other, and the percentile numbers are hidden until the typical team reaches 10 games. Read the raw counts.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters
shots for◀ 5v5 offense
shots against5v5 defense ▶
How to read this map

One rink, both ends: what MIN generates on the left, what it concedes on the right (on a phone, one end at a time, net at the top: the switch above the map picks it). Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per game. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league, the league baseline at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · • on net · ◦ missed · small • blocked.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout, and the strength buckets segregate them anyway — which is why the empty-net control greys out unless the view can actually contain one. Everything inside the outlined box moves with the filters; everything below it does not.

Observed production

5v5 · preseason to date
for against
axis spans ±146% of league average · centre = average · right = more
Goalsteam
6 38th pctl8 80th pctl
Shotsteam
82 77th pctl59 17th pctl
Attemptsteam
164 64th pctl144 31st pctl
xGteam
7.2 59th pctl5.9 22nd pctl
xGF%share of team xG
55.0%78th pctl
0% 50% = even split · gray = league middle 50% / 90% 100%

Percentiles and the gray spread rank against all 32 teams recomputed under the current filter — every bar and band here moves together, so a slice never ranks against a different slice's league.

Rolling xGF%

5v5 · last 10 games
Per-game chance share, smoothed. drag the slider to set the window
Context

Season context

preseason to date
How the season was played, not how well. Not a modeled component: each is its own metric (a rate, a TOI share, or opponents' net xG-RAPM), shown with a league percentile only where one exists, never added together. Not a grade.
Ice timeshare by strength
5v5 76%PPPK
+0.4PP − PK min/60
Score stateTOI by game state
trail 48%tied 47%
trails a lot
Goalie workloadstarter's share of shots
not available in the pipeline
—
Schedule strengthopponents' net xG-RAPM
not available in the pipeline
—
0league average100 pctl