xJawn NHL expected goals

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Mason Lohrei

D · Boston Bruins · career →

9 GP · 140 min 5v5
2026-27 · 5v5

Small sample. The typical team has played 8 games, so the percentile numbers on the observed rows are hidden until it reaches 10 games. Read the raw counts.

Adjusts with rink filters
on-ice for◀ 5v5 offense
on-ice against5v5 defense ▶
How to read this map

One rink, both ends while Mason Lohrei is on the ice: what the team generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per 60 minutes of ice time (a player's exposure is time, not games). The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league, the league baseline per team-hour at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · • on net · ◦ missed · small • blocked — and own shots narrows the left end's markers to attempts Mason Lohrei took.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout. On-ice membership comes from the shift charts; attempts without usable shift coverage are absent from both ends. Blocked-shot membership cannot be cross-checked against the play-by-play, so treat blocked-marker detail as softer than the rest.

Observed production

5v5 · on-ice
for against
axis spans ±323% of the defenseman cohort average · centre = average · right = more
Goalson-ice
5 57th pctl0 2nd pctl
Shotson-ice
65 76th pctl59 71st pctl
Attemptson-ice
134 73rd pctl140 80th pctl
xGon-ice
6.8 82nd pctl6.2 77th pctl
xGF%share of on-ice xG
52.3%61st pctl
0% 50% = even split · gray = cohort middle 50% / 90% 100%

Percentiles rank against the other defensemen over the display floor at the selected strength — a non-strength filter (rush, period, …) moves the bars but keeps that strength's spread as the backdrop.

Rolling on-ice xGF%

5v5 · on-ice
Per-game chance share while on the ice, smoothed. drag the slider to set the window

Model estimates

🔒 2025-26 · frozen
Last season's ratings and goals accounting (2025-26) — 2026-27 is not rated until it has enough games to refit. The observed rows above are 2026-27.
creating   preventing   creates both  ·  paler = special teams  ·  solid = on-ice RAPM · hatched = skill rating  ·  ▽ = the total
Shooting
Conversionall shooter stages
outside the PP -0.13 goals vs averagepower play -0.17 goals vs average
-0.3038th pctl
Offense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGF impact
-1.8628th pctl
Defense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGA, flipped
-0.9428th pctl
BlockingBlocking · season-resolved
+0.2186th pctl
Special teams
Power playST RAPM · 3-season window
-0.2918th pctl
Penalty killST RAPM · season-resolved
+0.0145th pctl
Disciplinedrawn − taken
-0.6250th pctl
GAAgoals above average, this season
Offense impact -1.86 goals vs averageDefense impact -0.94 goals vs averageBlocking +0.21 goals vs averageConversion · outside the PP -0.13 goals vs averagePower play -0.29 goals vs averageConversion · power play -0.17 goals vs averageDiscipline -0.62 goals vs average
-3.8031st pctl
grouped by game state · 5v5 → power play → kill
−18.960 = league average+18.96

Ranked against defensemen; the band behind each bar is that cohort's spread (p5–p95, middle half brighter, dashed median), so where a bar lands against its band is the rank — the ordinal beside it makes that exact. Zero is whichever baseline the toggle selects — the league-average skater, or replacement level — and every row, its band and its ordinal are all drawn against that one baseline, so the bar and the number can never describe different things. Each row's bar grows from zero, so its end IS its value; the composite is the rows stacked, running both ways from zero, so only it carries a ▽ to mark the net. The rows sum to the total with nothing left over. The per-shot rating is quality only: it says nothing about how many attempts a player generates or faces, which is what the attempts figure is for.

Usage & context

descriptive · not modeled
The job the coach handed Mason Lohrei, not how well it went. Not a modeled component: each is its own metric (minutes, a rate, a TOI share, or opponents'/teammates' net xG-RAPM), shown with a cohort percentile only where one exists, never added together. Not a grade. The deployment rows are measured over the same 5v5 stints the isolate is fit on (regular season + playoffs); ice time and the penalty rates are all situations, every game — penalties create non-5v5 time, so a 5v5 denominator would inflate every rate.
Time on iceall situations · min per game
18:07per game
Penalties takenminor penalties / 60
0.00per 60 · all situations
Penalties drawnminor penalties / 60
0.73per 60 · all situations
Zone startsOZS% · O-zone start share
56%offensive / (off + def)
Score stateTOI by game state
trail 30%tied 38%lead 32%
balanced
Competition (QoC)opponents' net xG-RAPM
+0.018xG/60
Teammates (QoT)teammates' net xG-RAPM
-0.039xG/60
On-the-flyshare of 5v5 TOI
72%of 5v5 TOI
0cohort average100 pctl

A skater absent from the fit counts as exactly cohort average (0) in QoC/QoT — the same claim ridge shrinkage makes. Penalty rates are descriptive only: taken-rate includes defensively correct penalties, and neither side is opponent- or deployment-adjusted. Nothing here is priced in goals.

Full table · all numbers
FamilyStatValue (current slice)
Observed ◆ filtered Goals on-ice for / against 5 / 0
Observed ◆ filtered xG on-ice for / against 6.8 / 6.2
Observed ◆ filtered Shots on-ice for / against 65 / 59
Observed ◆ filtered Attempts on-ice for / against 134 / 140
Observed ◆ filteredxGF% 52.3%
Modeled 🔒 season Conversion — all shooter stages -0.30 38th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 157 outside the PP 43rd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 38 on the PP 78th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — per-shot skill 88th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGF impact -1.86 28th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGA, flipped -0.94 28th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Blocking — Blocking · season-resolved +0.21 86th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Blocking — 1,199 attempts faced 45th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Blocking — per-shot suppression 97th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Power play — ST RAPM · 3-season window -0.29 18th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Penalty kill — ST RAPM · season-resolved +0.01 45th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Discipline — drawn − taken -0.62 50th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season GAA -3.80 31st pctl
ContextTime on ice — all situations · min per game 18:07 (43rd pctl)
ContextPenalties taken — minor penalties / 60 0.00 (10th pctl)
ContextPenalties drawn — minor penalties / 60 0.73 (69th pctl)
ContextZone starts — OZS% · O-zone start share 56% (71st pctl)
ContextScore state — TOI by game state trail 30%, tied 38%, lead 32%
ContextCompetition (QoC) — opponents' net xG-RAPM +0.018 (55th pctl)
ContextTeammates (QoT) — teammates' net xG-RAPM -0.039 (18th pctl)
ContextOn-the-fly — share of 5v5 TOI 72%

Observed values reflect the active rink filters; modeled values are fixed at their full-season fit.

On-ice numbers pair the regular-season shot set with shift-chart membership; skaters and goalies under the display floors are fit but not shown. Modeled rows come from the value artifact keyed to RAPM fit rapm__0cd6d075 on nested_structure__nested_structure_xg__d2ec2662 (the joint-xg structural baseline), with ratings from joint__baseline_xg__f3e3111e (as of 2026-06-14) — separate surfaces from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.