xJawn NHL expected goals

← Players · ← 2025-26 season

TBL Jake Guentzel

C · career · 10 seasons · 5v5 value in goals above league average per 60

GAA/60 by season

How to read this chart

One point per season: GAA/60, the accounting sum of that season's 5v5 value — chances created (Off xG-RAPM) + chances suppressed (Def xG-RAPM) + finishing above expectation — in goals above league average per 60 minutes. The chart opens on the 3-season weighted average: each point is the ice-time-weighted average of the player's GAA/60 over that season and the two before it. A single season of RAPM is noisy (year-over-year correlation ≈ 0.5, the defensive half worse), so the smoothed line is the honest read — it answers "is this level real?" rather than "what did one 1,000-minute sample say?". The Single season toggle shows the raw per-season number instead, swings and all.

The grey bands are the league that same season, in the same view: the brighter fill is the middle half of skaters (25th–75th percentile), the faint fill the 5th–95th, the dashed line the league median — all over skaters with at least 300 minutes of 5v5 ice time (window-summed in the 3-season view). Where a point sits inside the bands is its percentile; the label above it makes it exact. Hollow points fall under the floor — they draw (the line is the career) but get no rank.

The vertical axis is GAA/60 — a linear goals-above-league-average scale, so heights add up. It opens on just the orange net line over the bands. Click Off / Def / Fin in the legend to stack that piece in: chances created and finishing (when positive) fill up from the dotted zero line, chances against fill down when a player is bleeding them, and the net line is their sum. Toggle each one independently — the line says how good, the stack says where the value came from.

Season by season

SeasonTeamTOIOffDefFinGAA/60GAA (goals)Percentile
2025-26TBL1,200 +0.12-0.01+0.14 +0.26+5.2 88th
2024-25TBL1,282 +0.19+0.02+0.14 +0.35+7.4 93rd
2023-24PIT1,197 +0.40+0.13+0.19 +0.72+14.5 100th
2022-23PIT1,183 +0.31-0.22+0.17 +0.26+5.1 87th
2021-22PIT1,278 +0.26-0.08+0.20 +0.38+8.0 98th
2020-21PIT999 +0.07-0.09+0.13 +0.10+1.7 79th
2019-20PIT677 +0.19-0.00+0.16 +0.35+4.0 98th
2018-19PIT1,333 +0.13+0.01+0.14 +0.28+6.1 97th
2017-18PIT1,316 +0.04-0.17+0.14 +0.00+0.1 51st
2016-17PIT927 +0.11-0.18+0.15 +0.08+1.3 79th

The table is always the raw single-season record — the ledger the 3-season line smooths. TOI is 5v5 minutes. GAA (goals) is the rate × that season's ice time — the season's total value in goals. Percentile is against that season's qualified skaters, single season.

GAA/60 comes from value artifact value__5766c017 (accounting layer, docs/player-value.md): single-season xG-RAPM plus the modeled finishing rating over the player's own 5v5 ice time; the 3-season view is the trailing ice-time-weighted average of those. It is a separate surface from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.