xJawn NHL expected goals

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Barclay Goodrow

C · San Jose Sharks · career →

8 GP · 70 min 5v5
2026-27 · 5v5

Small sample. The typical team has played 8 games, so the percentile numbers on the observed rows are hidden until it reaches 10 games. Read the raw counts.

Adjusts with rink filters
on-ice for◀ 5v5 offense
on-ice against5v5 defense ▶
How to read this map

One rink, both ends while Barclay Goodrow is on the ice: what the team generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per 60 minutes of ice time (a player's exposure is time, not games). The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league, the league baseline per team-hour at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · • on net · ◦ missed · small • blocked — and own shots narrows the left end's markers to attempts Barclay Goodrow took.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout. On-ice membership comes from the shift charts; attempts without usable shift coverage are absent from both ends. Blocked-shot membership cannot be cross-checked against the play-by-play, so treat blocked-marker detail as softer than the rest.

Observed production

5v5 · on-ice
for against
axis spans ±382% of the forward cohort average · centre = average · right = more
Goalson-ice
1 13th pctl2 23rd pctl
Shotson-ice
37 37th pctl28 20th pctl
Attemptson-ice
61 20th pctl74 29th pctl
xGon-ice
2.4 20th pctl3.1 31st pctl
xGF%share of on-ice xG
43.0%28th pctl
0% 50% = even split · gray = cohort middle 50% / 90% 100%

Percentiles rank against the other forwards over the display floor at the selected strength — a non-strength filter (rush, period, …) moves the bars but keeps that strength's spread as the backdrop.

Rolling on-ice xGF%

5v5 · on-ice
Per-game chance share while on the ice, smoothed. drag the slider to set the window

Model estimates

🔒 2025-26 · frozen
Last season's ratings and goals accounting (2025-26) — 2026-27 is not rated until it has enough games to refit. The observed rows above are 2026-27.
creating   preventing   creates both  ·  paler = special teams  ·  solid = on-ice RAPM · hatched = skill rating  ·  ▽ = the total
Shooting
Conversionall shooter stages
outside the PP -0.91 goals vs average
-0.9126th pctl
Offense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGF impact
-4.012nd pctl
Defense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGA, flipped
+1.0976th pctl
BlockingBlocking · season-resolved
+0.2499th pctl
Special teams
Power playST RAPM · 3-season window
-0.0258th pctl
Penalty killST RAPM · season-resolved
-0.3112th pctl
Disciplinedrawn − taken
-0.8410th pctl
GAAgoals above average, this season
Offense impact -4.01 goals vs averageDefense impact +1.09 goals vs averageBlocking +0.24 goals vs averageConversion · outside the PP -0.91 goals vs averagePenalty kill -0.31 goals vs averageDiscipline -0.84 goals vs average
-4.766th pctl
grouped by game state · 5v5 → power play → kill
−18.960 = league average+18.96

Ranked against forwards; the band behind each bar is that cohort's spread (p5–p95, middle half brighter, dashed median), so where a bar lands against its band is the rank — the ordinal beside it makes that exact. Zero is whichever baseline the toggle selects — the league-average skater, or replacement level — and every row, its band and its ordinal are all drawn against that one baseline, so the bar and the number can never describe different things. Each row's bar grows from zero, so its end IS its value; the composite is the rows stacked, running both ways from zero, so only it carries a ▽ to mark the net. The rows sum to the total with nothing left over. The per-shot rating is quality only: it says nothing about how many attempts a player generates or faces, which is what the attempts figure is for.

Faceoff skill

Faceoff skillfitted rating · not in GAA/GAR
52.1%41st pctl
A per-draw skill rating from the faceoff model, shown as the win probability against a league-average taker on a neutral dot. It is not priced in goals and is not part of GAA or GAR: the value of a won draw is shared by everyone on the ice, so this stays a rating.
−0.690 = an average taker+0.69

Usage & context

descriptive · not modeled
The job the coach handed Barclay Goodrow, not how well it went. Not a modeled component: each is its own metric (minutes, a rate, a TOI share, or opponents'/teammates' net xG-RAPM), shown with a cohort percentile only where one exists, never added together. Not a grade. The deployment rows are measured over the same 5v5 stints the isolate is fit on (regular season + playoffs); ice time and the penalty rates are all situations, every game — penalties create non-5v5 time, so a 5v5 denominator would inflate every rate.
Time on iceall situations · min per game
11:54per game
Penalties takenminor penalties / 60
0.63per 60 · all situations
Penalties drawnminor penalties / 60
0.63per 60 · all situations
Zone startsOZS% · O-zone start share
18%offensive / (off + def)
Score stateTOI by game state
trail 30%tied 42%lead 28%
often tied
Competition (QoC)opponents' net xG-RAPM
+0.002xG/60
Teammates (QoT)teammates' net xG-RAPM
-0.046xG/60
On-the-flyshare of 5v5 TOI
66%of 5v5 TOI
0cohort average100 pctl

A skater absent from the fit counts as exactly cohort average (0) in QoC/QoT — the same claim ridge shrinkage makes. Penalty rates are descriptive only: taken-rate includes defensively correct penalties, and neither side is opponent- or deployment-adjusted. Nothing here is priced in goals.

Full table · all numbers
FamilyStatValue (current slice)
Observed ◆ filtered Goals on-ice for / against 1 / 2
Observed ◆ filtered xG on-ice for / against 2.4 / 3.1
Observed ◆ filtered Shots on-ice for / against 37 / 28
Observed ◆ filtered Attempts on-ice for / against 61 / 74
Observed ◆ filteredxGF% 43.0%
Modeled 🔒 season Conversion — all shooter stages -0.91 26th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 121 outside the PP 28th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 0 on the PP 6th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — per-shot skill 5th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGF impact -4.01 2nd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGA, flipped +1.09 76th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Blocking — Blocking · season-resolved +0.24 99th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Blocking — 1,080 attempts faced 60th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Blocking — per-shot suppression 97th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Power play — ST RAPM · 3-season window -0.02 58th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Penalty kill — ST RAPM · season-resolved -0.31 12th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Discipline — drawn − taken -0.84 10th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season GAA -4.76 6th pctl
ContextTime on ice — all situations · min per game 11:54 (18th pctl)
ContextPenalties taken — minor penalties / 60 0.63 (48th pctl)
ContextPenalties drawn — minor penalties / 60 0.63 (43rd pctl)
ContextZone starts — OZS% · O-zone start share 18% (2nd pctl)
ContextScore state — TOI by game state trail 30%, tied 42%, lead 28%
ContextCompetition (QoC) — opponents' net xG-RAPM +0.002 (36th pctl)
ContextTeammates (QoT) — teammates' net xG-RAPM -0.046 (25th pctl)
ContextOn-the-fly — share of 5v5 TOI 66%

Observed values reflect the active rink filters; modeled values are fixed at their full-season fit.

On-ice numbers pair the regular-season shot set with shift-chart membership; skaters and goalies under the display floors are fit but not shown. Modeled rows come from the value artifact keyed to RAPM fit rapm__0cd6d075 on nested_structure__nested_structure_xg__d2ec2662 (the joint-xg structural baseline), with ratings from joint__baseline_xg__f3e3111e (as of 2026-06-14) — separate surfaces from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.