xJawn NHL expected goals

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NYI Jean-Gabriel Pageau

C · career · 14 seasons · 5v5 value in goals above league average per 60

GAA/60 by season

How to read this chart

One point per season: GAA/60, the accounting sum of that season's 5v5 value — chances created (Off xG-RAPM) + chances suppressed (Def xG-RAPM) + finishing above expectation — in goals above league average per 60 minutes. The chart opens on the 3-season weighted average: each point is the ice-time-weighted average of the player's GAA/60 over that season and the two before it. A single season of RAPM is noisy (year-over-year correlation ≈ 0.5, the defensive half worse), so the smoothed line is the honest read — it answers "is this level real?" rather than "what did one 1,000-minute sample say?". The Single season toggle shows the raw per-season number instead, swings and all.

The grey bands are the league that same season, in the same view: the brighter fill is the middle half of skaters (25th–75th percentile), the faint fill the 5th–95th, the dashed line the league median — all over skaters with at least 300 minutes of 5v5 ice time (window-summed in the 3-season view). Where a point sits inside the bands is its percentile; the label above it makes it exact. Hollow points fall under the floor — they draw (the line is the career) but get no rank.

The vertical axis is GAA/60 — a linear goals-above-league-average scale, so heights add up. It opens on just the orange net line over the bands. Click Off / Def / Fin in the legend to stack that piece in: chances created and finishing (when positive) fill up from the dotted zero line, chances against fill down when a player is bleeding them, and the net line is their sum. Toggle each one independently — the line says how good, the stack says where the value came from.

Season by season

SeasonTeamTOIOffDefFinGAA/60GAA (goals)Percentile
2025-26NYI882 -0.06-0.11+0.01 -0.15-2.3 23rd
2024-25NYI1,012 +0.10+0.02+0.01 +0.13+2.3 74th
2023-24NYI1,024 -0.10-0.11+0.01 -0.21-3.5 19th
2022-23NYI926 +0.18+0.04+0.01 +0.24+3.7 85th
2021-22NYI965 -0.05+0.07+0.01 +0.04+0.6 62nd
2020-21NYI934 -0.07-0.00+0.01 -0.05-0.8 32nd
2019-20OTT1,168 +0.03+0.09+0.02 +0.14+2.7 84th
2018-19OTT558 -0.01+0.01+0.01 +0.02+0.2 55th
2017-18OTT1,016 -0.03-0.02+0.01 -0.03-0.6 41st
2016-17OTT1,322 +0.01+0.05+0.02 +0.07+1.6 76th
2015-16OTT1,078 -0.07+0.03+0.01 -0.03-0.5 42nd
2014-15OTT659 +0.03+0.06+0.02 +0.11+1.2 81st
2013-14OTT228 -0.10+0.06+0.02 -0.02-0.1
2012-13OTT195 +0.19-0.03+0.03 +0.19+0.6

The table is always the raw single-season record — the ledger the 3-season line smooths. TOI is 5v5 minutes. GAA (goals) is the rate × that season's ice time — the season's total value in goals. Percentile is against that season's qualified skaters, single season.

GAA/60 comes from value artifact value__5766c017 (accounting layer, docs/player-value.md): single-season xG-RAPM plus the modeled finishing rating over the player's own 5v5 ice time; the 3-season view is the trailing ice-time-weighted average of those. It is a separate surface from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.