xJawn NHL expected goals

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DAL Tyler Seguin

C · career · 16 seasons · 5v5 value in goals above league average per 60

GAA/60 by season

How to read this chart

One point per season: GAA/60, the accounting sum of that season's 5v5 value — chances created (Off xG-RAPM) + chances suppressed (Def xG-RAPM) + finishing above expectation — in goals above league average per 60 minutes. The chart opens on the 3-season weighted average: each point is the ice-time-weighted average of the player's GAA/60 over that season and the two before it. A single season of RAPM is noisy (year-over-year correlation ≈ 0.5, the defensive half worse), so the smoothed line is the honest read — it answers "is this level real?" rather than "what did one 1,000-minute sample say?". The Single season toggle shows the raw per-season number instead, swings and all.

The grey bands are the league that same season, in the same view: the brighter fill is the middle half of skaters (25th–75th percentile), the faint fill the 5th–95th, the dashed line the league median — all over skaters with at least 300 minutes of 5v5 ice time (window-summed in the 3-season view). Where a point sits inside the bands is its percentile; the label above it makes it exact. Hollow points fall under the floor — they draw (the line is the career) but get no rank.

The vertical axis is GAA/60 — a linear goals-above-league-average scale, so heights add up. It opens on just the orange net line over the bands. Click Off / Def / Fin in the legend to stack that piece in: chances created and finishing (when positive) fill up from the dotted zero line, chances against fill down when a player is bleeding them, and the net line is their sum. Toggle each one independently — the line says how good, the stack says where the value came from.

Season by season

SeasonTeamTOIOffDefFinGAA/60GAA (goals)Percentile
2025-26DAL360 -0.10-0.10+0.02 -0.18-1.1 20th
2024-25DAL480 +0.20+0.08+0.05 +0.33+2.6 92nd
2023-24DAL1,144 +0.26-0.22+0.04 +0.08+1.6 65th
2022-23DAL1,204 +0.22-0.06+0.04 +0.20+3.9 80th
2021-22DAL1,237 -0.10-0.08+0.03 -0.15-3.1 12th
2020-21DAL42 +0.00+0.02+0.05 +0.08+0.1
2019-20DAL1,224 +0.01-0.02+0.04 +0.03+0.5 60th
2018-19DAL1,488 +0.13+0.00+0.04 +0.17+4.3 90th
2017-18DAL1,215 +0.11-0.05+0.04 +0.10+2.0 79th
2016-17DAL1,177 +0.01-0.10+0.04 -0.05-1.0 36th
2015-16DAL1,076 +0.17-0.07+0.04 +0.13+2.4 85th
2014-15DAL1,020 +0.14-0.13+0.04 +0.05+0.9 69th
2013-14DAL1,213 +0.18+0.11+0.04 +0.33+6.6 94th
2012-13BOS958 +0.34-0.05+0.05 +0.33+5.3 95th
2011-12BOS1,228 +0.09+0.05+0.04 +0.18+3.7 93rd
2010-11BOS911 -0.03-0.01+0.03 -0.01-0.2 51st

The table is always the raw single-season record — the ledger the 3-season line smooths. TOI is 5v5 minutes. GAA (goals) is the rate × that season's ice time — the season's total value in goals. Percentile is against that season's qualified skaters, single season.

GAA/60 comes from value artifact value__5766c017 (accounting layer, docs/player-value.md): single-season xG-RAPM plus the modeled finishing rating over the player's own 5v5 ice time; the 3-season view is the trailing ice-time-weighted average of those. It is a separate surface from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.