xJawn NHL expected goals

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Radko Gudas

D · Florida Panthers · career →

6 GP · 73 min 5v5
2026-27 · 5v5

Small sample. The typical team has played 8 games, so the percentile numbers on the observed rows are hidden until it reaches 10 games. Read the raw counts.

Adjusts with rink filters
on-ice for◀ 5v5 offense
on-ice against5v5 defense ▶
How to read this map

One rink, both ends while Radko Gudas is on the ice: what the team generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per 60 minutes of ice time (a player's exposure is time, not games). The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league, the league baseline per team-hour at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · • on net · ◦ missed · small • blocked — and own shots narrows the left end's markers to attempts Radko Gudas took.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout. On-ice membership comes from the shift charts; attempts without usable shift coverage are absent from both ends. Blocked-shot membership cannot be cross-checked against the play-by-play, so treat blocked-marker detail as softer than the rest.

Observed production

5v5 · on-ice
for against
axis spans ±323% of the defenseman cohort average · centre = average · right = more
Goalson-ice
2 21st pctl0 2nd pctl
Shotson-ice
28 18th pctl28 15th pctl
Attemptson-ice
71 22nd pctl60 15th pctl
xGon-ice
2.6 17th pctl2.7 16th pctl
xGF%share of on-ice xG
49.0%46th pctl
0% 50% = even split · gray = cohort middle 50% / 90% 100%

Percentiles rank against the other defensemen over the display floor at the selected strength — a non-strength filter (rush, period, …) moves the bars but keeps that strength's spread as the backdrop.

Rolling on-ice xGF%

5v5 · on-ice
Per-game chance share while on the ice, smoothed. drag the slider to set the window

Model estimates

🔒 2025-26 · frozen
Last season's ratings and goals accounting (2025-26) — 2026-27 is not rated until it has enough games to refit. The observed rows above are 2026-27.
creating   preventing   creates both  ·  paler = special teams  ·  solid = on-ice RAPM · hatched = skill rating  ·  ▽ = the total
Shooting
Conversionall shooter stages
outside the PP -0.36 goals vs average
-0.3731st pctl
Offense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGF impact
+0.1467th pctl
Defense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGA, flipped
-0.9528th pctl
BlockingBlocking · season-resolved
+0.1882nd pctl
Special teams
Power playST RAPM · 3-season window
-0.0452nd pctl
Penalty killST RAPM · season-resolved
+0.7385th pctl
Disciplinedrawn − taken
-0.8438th pctl
GAAgoals above average, this season
Offense impact +0.14 goals vs averageDefense impact -0.95 goals vs averageBlocking +0.18 goals vs averageConversion · outside the PP -0.36 goals vs averagePenalty kill +0.73 goals vs averageDiscipline -0.84 goals vs average
-1.1651st pctl
grouped by game state · 5v5 → power play → kill
−18.960 = league average+18.96

Ranked against defensemen; the band behind each bar is that cohort's spread (p5–p95, middle half brighter, dashed median), so where a bar lands against its band is the rank — the ordinal beside it makes that exact. Zero is whichever baseline the toggle selects — the league-average skater, or replacement level — and every row, its band and its ordinal are all drawn against that one baseline, so the bar and the number can never describe different things. Each row's bar grows from zero, so its end IS its value; the composite is the rows stacked, running both ways from zero, so only it carries a ▽ to mark the net. The rows sum to the total with nothing left over. The per-shot rating is quality only: it says nothing about how many attempts a player generates or faces, which is what the attempts figure is for.

Usage & context

descriptive · not modeled
The job the coach handed Radko Gudas, not how well it went. Not a modeled component: each is its own metric (minutes, a rate, a TOI share, or opponents'/teammates' net xG-RAPM), shown with a cohort percentile only where one exists, never added together. Not a grade. The deployment rows are measured over the same 5v5 stints the isolate is fit on (regular season + playoffs); ice time and the penalty rates are all situations, every game — penalties create non-5v5 time, so a 5v5 denominator would inflate every rate.
Time on iceall situations · min per game
13:05per game
Penalties takenminor penalties / 60
0.76per 60 · all situations
Penalties drawnminor penalties / 60
0.00per 60 · all situations
Zone startsOZS% · O-zone start share
57%offensive / (off + def)
Score stateTOI by game state
trail 46%tied 53%
often tied
Competition (QoC)opponents' net xG-RAPM
+0.014xG/60
Teammates (QoT)teammates' net xG-RAPM
+0.083xG/60
On-the-flyshare of 5v5 TOI
69%of 5v5 TOI
0cohort average100 pctl

A skater absent from the fit counts as exactly cohort average (0) in QoC/QoT — the same claim ridge shrinkage makes. Penalty rates are descriptive only: taken-rate includes defensively correct penalties, and neither side is opponent- or deployment-adjusted. Nothing here is priced in goals.

Full table · all numbers
FamilyStatValue (current slice)
Observed ◆ filtered Goals on-ice for / against 2 / 0
Observed ◆ filtered xG on-ice for / against 2.6 / 2.7
Observed ◆ filtered Shots on-ice for / against 28 / 28
Observed ◆ filtered Attempts on-ice for / against 71 / 60
Observed ◆ filteredxGF% 49.0%
Modeled 🔒 season Conversion — all shooter stages -0.37 31st pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 167 outside the PP 50th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 2 on the PP 44th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — per-shot skill 71st pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGF impact +0.14 67th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGA, flipped -0.95 28th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Blocking — Blocking · season-resolved +0.18 82nd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Blocking — 975 attempts faced 33rd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Blocking — per-shot suppression 95th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Power play — ST RAPM · 3-season window -0.04 52nd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Penalty kill — ST RAPM · season-resolved +0.73 85th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Discipline — drawn − taken -0.84 38th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season GAA -1.16 51st pctl
ContextTime on ice — all situations · min per game 13:05 (9th pctl)
ContextPenalties taken — minor penalties / 60 0.76 (51st pctl)
ContextPenalties drawn — minor penalties / 60 0.00 (18th pctl)
ContextZone starts — OZS% · O-zone start share 57% (72nd pctl)
ContextScore state — TOI by game state trail 46%, tied 53%, lead 1%
ContextCompetition (QoC) — opponents' net xG-RAPM +0.014 (50th pctl)
ContextTeammates (QoT) — teammates' net xG-RAPM +0.083 (80th pctl)
ContextOn-the-fly — share of 5v5 TOI 69%

Observed values reflect the active rink filters; modeled values are fixed at their full-season fit.

On-ice numbers pair the regular-season shot set with shift-chart membership; skaters and goalies under the display floors are fit but not shown. Modeled rows come from the value artifact keyed to RAPM fit rapm__0cd6d075 on nested_structure__nested_structure_xg__d2ec2662 (the joint-xg structural baseline), with ratings from joint__baseline_xg__f3e3111e (as of 2026-06-14) — separate surfaces from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.