xJawn NHL expected goals

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Jonathan Quick

G · New York Rangers

25 GP · 1,170 min 5v5
2025-26 · 5v5
Adjusts with rink filters
on-ice for◀ 5v5 offense
on-ice against5v5 defense ▶
How to read this map

One rink, both ends while Jonathan Quick is on the ice: what the team generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per 60 minutes of ice time (a player's exposure is time, not games). The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league, the league baseline per team-hour at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · • on net · ◦ missed · small • blocked.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout. On-ice membership comes from the shift charts; attempts without usable shift coverage are absent from both ends. Blocked-shot membership cannot be cross-checked against the play-by-play, so treat blocked-marker detail as softer than the rest.

Observed production

5v5 · on-ice
for against
axis spans ±120% of the goalie cohort average · centre = average · right = more
Goalson-ice
39 13th pctl57 31st pctl
Shotson-ice
455 18th pctl527 24th pctl
Attemptson-ice
1,015 24th pctl1,157 27th pctl
xGon-ice
42.1 18th pctl50.1 24th pctl
xGF%share of on-ice xG
45.7%14th pctl
0% 50% = even split · gray = cohort middle 50% / 90% 100%

Percentiles rank against the other goalies over the display floor at the selected strength — a non-strength filter (rush, period, …) moves the bars but keeps that strength's spread as the backdrop.

Rolling on-ice xGF%

5v5 · on-ice
Per-game chance share while on the ice, smoothed. drag the slider to set the window

Model estimates

🔒 full season · not filtered
Season-long ratings — the filters above don't apply here. per-shot logit margin vs cohort average · bar grows from average
Savingjoint fit · per-shot logit
+0.0790th pctl
↳ attempts
41,26699th pctl
↳ saving talent
+0.0790th pctl
shots faced × per-shot logit
−0.21average+0.21

Ranked against goalies; the band behind each bar is that cohort's spread (p5–p95, middle half brighter, dashed median), so where a bar lands against its band is the rank — the ordinal beside it makes that exact. The per-shot rating is quality only: it says nothing about how many attempts a player generates or faces, which is what the attempts sub-row is for.

Usage & context

descriptive · not modeled
How much Jonathan Quick played, not how well. Not a modeled component and not a grade — the modeled read is the Saving row above.
Time on iceall situations · min per game
56:26per game
0cohort average100 pctl

Deployment and discipline reads are skater-only: the RAPM usage fit runs on 5v5 skater stints and the penalty denominator counts skaters, so neither describes a goalie.

Full table · all numbers
FamilyStatValue (current slice)
Observed ◆ filtered Goals on-ice for / against 39 / 57
Observed ◆ filtered xG on-ice for / against 42.1 / 50.1
Observed ◆ filtered Shots on-ice for / against 455 / 527
Observed ◆ filtered Attempts on-ice for / against 1,015 / 1,157
Observed ◆ filteredxGF% 45.7%
Modeled 🔒 season Saving — joint fit · per-shot logit +0.07 90th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ attempts (shots faced) 41,266 99th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ saving talent (per-shot logit) +0.07 90th pctl
ContextTime on ice — all situations · min per game 56:26 (39th pctl)

Observed values reflect the active rink filters; modeled values are fixed at their full-season fit.

On-ice numbers pair the regular-season shot set with shift-chart membership; skaters and goalies under the display floors are fit but not shown. Modeled rows come from the value artifact keyed to RAPM fit rapm__c5b9b663 on flat__joint_structure_xg__4f64c88b (the joint-xg structural baseline), with ratings from joint__baseline_xg__42ccb89b (as of 2026-06-14) — separate surfaces from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.