xJawn NHL expected goals

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OTT 2 – 4 MTL

Ottawa Senators at Montréal Canadiens

Final · Sep 26, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from OTT's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = OTT power play · PK = MTL power play · Leading = OTT ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

OTT attacks◀ all strengths
MTL attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: OTT attacks the left net, MTL the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from OTT's side and mirrored for MTL: “OTT PP” shows OTT's power-play attempts on the left and MTL's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
OTT MTL
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
2 4
Expected goals
2.96 3.13
xG%share of xG
49% 51%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 3
Shots on goal
32 26
Attempts
47 56
xG by period · whole game 1st0.7–1.52nd1.5–0.63rd0.7–1.1

The Canadiens beat the Senators 4–2 at home in a game the chances called about even, OTT 3.0 to MTL 3.1 in expected goals. The Senators power play made 1.4 xG on 17 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative OTT − MTL xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5OTT AHEAD ▲MTL AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative OTT minus MTL expected goals. Above zero OTT is ahead on chances, below zero MTL is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

OTT
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Christian KyrouD18:43+1.10Ridly GreigF23:25+0.93Philip TomasinoF22:58+0.76Kasper HalttunenF20:11+0.74Jaxon CoverF16:18+0.69Oskar PetterssonF10:36+0.29Nikolas MatinpaloD16:33-0.01Ben HuttonD19:40-0.02Adam NemecF1:39-0.12Philippe DaoustF17:33-0.24Xavier BourgaultF20:50-0.26Tyler BoucherF15:41-0.33Cameron CrottyD15:47-0.49Ryan SuzukiF19:05-0.64Scott HarringtonD15:33-0.67Samuel BolducD15:05-0.78Sammy BlaisF17:49-0.79Djibril ToureD10:47-0.90
MTL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Luke MittelstadtD20:07+1.09Alexandre CarrierD19:26+0.88Phillip DanaultF14:02+0.65Juraj SlafkovskýF16:59+0.53Tyler ThorpeF10:22+0.42Cole CaufieldF17:06+0.30Alexandre TexierF12:04+0.21Chris KreiderF15:21+0.20Owen BeckF13:02+0.18Nick SuzukiF18:05+0.17Alex NewhookF15:19+0.14Maksymilian SzuberD15:00+0.11Florian XhekajF13:23+0.09Ethan SamsonD12:34-0.08Jake EvansF13:12-0.37Josh AndersonF12:25-0.68Mike MathesonD26:02-0.78Noah DobsonD26:11-0.91

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

OTT
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Sammy BlaisPhilip TomasinoRidly Greig11:33-0.62L2Ryan SuzukiTyler BoucherKasper Halttunen11:29-0.36L3Philippe DaoustXavier BourgaultJaxon Cover6:31-0.70SPAREOskar Pettersson10:36+0.29SPAREAdam Nemec1:39-0.12DEFENCE PAIRSD1Ben HuttonNikolas Matinpalo8:38+0.05D2Scott HarringtonCameron Crotty7:40-0.48D3Samuel BolducDjibril Toure5:05-0.42SPAREChristian Kyrou18:43+1.101ST2ND3RD01.751.75
MTL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Chris KreiderNick SuzukiCole Caufield13:30+0.45L2Phillip DanaultAlex NewhookJuraj Slafkovský12:17+0.74L3Owen BeckFlorian XhekajTyler Thorpe9:22+0.41L4Josh AndersonJake EvansAlexandre Texier8:01+0.22DEFENCE PAIRSD1Mike MathesonNoah Dobson22:53-0.99D2Alexandre CarrierLuke Mittelstadt16:55+0.82D3Ethan SamsonMaksymilian Szuber12:11-0.021ST2ND3RD02.252.25

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
OTT won the chances MTL won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
ErssonBlaisTomasinoGreigSuzukiBoucherHalttunenDaoustBourgaultCoverPetterssonNemecHuttonMatinpaloHarringtonCrottyBolducToureKyrouFowlerMontembeaultKreiderSuzukiCaufieldDanaultNewhookSlafkovskýBeckXhekajThorpeAndersonEvansTexierMathesonDobsonCarrierMittelstadtSamsonSzuberGL1L2L3FD1D2D3DGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are OTT's skaters, columns MTL's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
OTTPhilip Tomasino 1st11:54 PP 0.16
OTTTyler Boucher 1st19:19 PP 0.08
MTLChris Kreider 1st13:31 0.25
MTLNoah Dobson 2nd0:47 PP 0.04
MTLJuraj Slafkovský 3rd6:13 0.15
MTLPhillip Danault 3rd12:56 0.19