xJawn NHL expected goals

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MTL 3 – 4 OTT

Montréal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators

Final · Sep 26, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from MTL's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = MTL power play · PK = OTT power play · Leading = MTL ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

MTL attacks◀ all strengths
OTT attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: MTL attacks the left net, OTT the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from MTL's side and mirrored for OTT: “MTL PP” shows MTL's power-play attempts on the left and OTT's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
MTL OTT
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
3 4
Expected goals
1.67 2.84
xG%share of xG
37% 63%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 0
Shots on goal
23 26
Attempts
36 51
xG by period · whole game 1st0.4–0.62nd0.4–1.23rd0.8–1.1

The Senators beat the Canadiens 4–3 at home, and the chances agreed: OTT out-created MTL 2.8–1.7 in expected goals. The Senators power play made 1.8 xG on 23 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative MTL − OTT xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5+2−2MTL AHEAD ▲OTT AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative MTL minus OTT expected goals. Above zero MTL is ahead on chances, below zero OTT is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

MTL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Sasha PastujovF14:46+0.65Filip MesarF8:01+0.49Jared DavidsonF11:32+0.23Dillan BentleyF7:51+0.22Hunter McKownF16:14+0.04Samuel PoulinF7:12-0.09Brett BerardF14:19-0.13Laurent DauphinF17:00-0.19Reilly WalshD14:10-0.21Alex BelzileF15:36-0.23David ReinbacherD19:09-0.25Owen ProtzD15:21-0.43Adam EngstromD23:54-0.50Jayden StrubleD20:50-0.54Oliver KapanenF20:18-0.61Zachary BolducF19:57-0.75Arber XhekajD18:56-0.81Kirby DachF21:21-0.98
OTT
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Drake BathersonF17:40+1.62William EklundF17:48+1.38Tim StützleF21:18+1.38Dylan CozensF21:06+1.03Carter YakemchukD18:39+0.96Thomas ChabotD25:10+0.52Jake SandersonD13:22+0.33Andre BurakovskyF11:36+0.26Claude GirouxF17:42+0.15Eskild Bakke OlsenF8:53+0.07Fabian ZetterlundF12:42+0.07Hayden HodgsonF9:55+0.07Stephen HallidayF13:12-0.00Michael AmadioF15:07-0.13Jordan SpenceD20:11-0.16Hoyt StanleyD13:48-0.19Nick CousinsF11:29-0.27Tyler KlevenD20:33-0.70

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

MTL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Kirby DachZachary BolducOliver Kapanen11:46+0.02L2Brett BerardSasha PastujovHunter McKown7:14-0.07L3Alex BelzileLaurent DauphinJared Davidson7:11-0.07L4Samuel PoulinFilip MesarDillan Bentley4:50-0.04DEFENCE PAIRSD1Jayden StrubleArber Xhekaj16:24-0.67D2Adam EngstromDavid Reinbacher13:24-0.33D3Reilly WalshOwen Protz11:16-0.201ST2ND3RD01.251.25
OTT
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Claude GirouxMichael AmadioStephen Halliday8:04-0.02L2Fabian ZetterlundTim StützleWilliam Eklund7:37+0.08L3Andre BurakovskyDrake BathersonDylan Cozens6:10+0.02L4Nick CousinsHayden HodgsonEskild Bakke Olsen6:09+0.11DEFENCE PAIRSD1Thomas ChabotJordan Spence14:46+0.24D2Tyler KlevenCarter Yakemchuk11:26-0.06D3Jake SandersonHoyt Stanley7:17-0.121ST2ND3RD00.750.75

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
MTL won the chances OTT won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
DobesDachBolducKapanenBerardPastujovMcKownBelzileDauphinDavidsonPoulinMesarBentleyStrubleXhekajEngstromReinbacherWalshProtzUllmarkGirouxAmadioHallidayZetterlundStützleEklundBurakovskyBathersonCozensCousinsHodgsonBakke OlsenChabotSpenceKlevenYakemchukSandersonStanleyGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are MTL's skaters, columns OTT's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
MTLBrett Berard 1st3:49 0.05
MTLAlex Belzile 3rd5:19 0.17
MTLSasha Pastujov 3rd7:05 0.13
OTTClaude Giroux 1st9:16 PP 0.05
OTTDrake Batherson 2nd10:31 PP 0.13
OTTCarter Yakemchuk 2nd11:12 PP 0.13
OTTWilliam Eklund 3rd10:57 PP 0.19