xJawn NHL expected goals

← Preseason

Save a card: Summary · Full card · Game flow · SJS skaters · VGK skaters · SJS lines · VGK lines · Matchups
Today's puzzle Remember Some Guys — name the skater from the shape of his career. Three clues, one guess a day. Play →
Final · Sep 26, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from SJS's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = SJS power play · PK = VGK power play · Leading = SJS ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

SJS attacks◀ all strengths
VGK attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: SJS attacks the left net, VGK the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 246 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from SJS's side and mirrored for VGK: “SJS PP” shows SJS's power-play attempts on the left and VGK's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
SJS VGK
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
4 2
Expected goals
1.38 3.24
xG%share of xG
30% 70%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 1
Shots on goal
16 29
Attempts
36 61
xG by period · whole game 1st0.1–1.22nd0.4–1.53rd0.9–0.5

The Sharks beat the Golden Knights 4–2 on the road despite being out-created 3.2–1.4 in expected goals. That is a finishing-and-goaltending win. SJS scored 4 on 1.4 expected.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative SJS − VGK xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+1−1+2−2+3−3SJS AHEAD ▲VGK AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative SJS minus VGK expected goals. Above zero SJS is ahead on chances, below zero VGK is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
SJSDmitry Orlov 1st19:20 PP 0.01
SJSMacklin Celebrini 2nd6:45 0.06
SJSMason Marchment 3rd9:47 0.02
SJSMichael Misa 3rd14:54 0.06
VGKTomas Hertl 2nd17:24 PP 0.32
VGKNic Dowd 3rd3:18 0.11
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

SJS
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Dmitry OrlovD19:10+0.56Igor ChernyshovF12:11+0.25Michael MisaF9:42+0.16Sam DickinsonD16:44+0.13Tyler ToffoliF9:53+0.11Ivar StenbergF13:37+0.04Will SmithF15:51+0.01Macklin CelebriniF19:03-0.07Alexander WennbergF17:58-0.14Collin GrafF18:13-0.33Mason MarchmentF16:05-0.40Jacob TroubaD18:08-0.75Zack OstapchukF13:50-0.78Nolan AllanD18:18-0.85Barclay GoodrowF15:18-1.10Kiefer SherwoodF13:50-1.38Michael KesselringD22:24-1.63Darnell NurseD20:47-1.63
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Collin GrafF12:25+0.20Michael MisaF7:58+0.15Alexander WennbergF11:24+0.15Dmitry OrlovD15:44+0.14Sam DickinsonD16:17+0.13Tyler ToffoliF8:20+0.11Igor ChernyshovF8:07+0.10Ivar StenbergF11:53+0.04Jacob TroubaD11:11-0.03Nolan AllanD12:45-0.12Barclay GoodrowF10:16-0.24Zack OstapchukF10:43-0.39Mason MarchmentF13:36-0.41Will SmithF12:28-0.41Kiefer SherwoodF10:44-0.41Macklin CelebriniF14:08-0.44Michael KesselringD16:58-0.58Darnell NurseD15:23-0.58
0.250.250.50.50Dmitry OrlovD3:19+0.42Alexander WennbergF3:08+0.42Will SmithF3:08+0.42Macklin CelebriniF3:08+0.42Igor ChernyshovF3:08+0.42Mason MarchmentF1:44+0.01Michael MisaF1:44+0.01Ivar StenbergF1:44+0.01Jacob TroubaD1:34+0.01Tyler ToffoliF1:33+0.01Sam DickinsonD0:10+0.00
0.50.5110Sam DickinsonD0:17+0.00Will SmithF0:15+0.00Dmitry OrlovD0:07+0.00Macklin CelebriniF0:07-0.06Igor ChernyshovF0:56-0.28Zack OstapchukF2:43-0.39Collin GrafF4:07-0.53Alexander WennbergF3:01-0.71Nolan AllanD5:08-0.72Jacob TroubaD4:57-0.72Barclay GoodrowF4:05-0.85Kiefer SherwoodF2:40-0.97Michael KesselringD3:46-1.06Darnell NurseD3:43-1.06
VGK
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Braeden BowmanF14:54+1.32Tomas HertlF17:10+1.20Trevor ConnellyF14:05+1.11Jack EichelF22:37+1.10Rasmus AnderssonD19:30+1.08Victor OlofssonF13:39+0.94Shea TheodoreD22:08+0.83Mitch MarnerF21:33+0.78William KarlssonF18:55+0.61Parker WotherspoonD18:33+0.44Noah HanifinD16:29+0.41Brett HowdenF11:03+0.24Mark StoneF18:54+0.22Nic DowdF11:18+0.09Marc GatcombF10:58+0.04Ivan BarbashevF12:15-0.04Jeremy LauzonD15:06-0.13Brayden McNabbD18:17-0.22
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Noah HanifinD13:19+0.58Parker WotherspoonD15:39+0.44Mitch MarnerF12:33+0.33Jeremy LauzonD13:06+0.29Brett HowdenF11:03+0.24William KarlssonF12:13+0.23Victor OlofssonF10:17+0.20Trevor ConnellyF10:13+0.20Braeden BowmanF10:49+0.19Rasmus AnderssonD15:39+0.16Tomas HertlF9:46+0.16Nic DowdF9:26+0.11Jack EichelF13:10+0.07Marc GatcombF9:18+0.05Ivan BarbashevF12:15-0.04Mark StoneF11:24-0.18Shea TheodoreD15:13-0.21Brayden McNabbD15:07-0.22
0.50.5110Braeden BowmanF3:42+1.13Jack EichelF5:35+1.04Tomas HertlF5:28+1.04Shea TheodoreD5:27+1.04Rasmus AnderssonD3:28+0.92Trevor ConnellyF3:21+0.92Mitch MarnerF5:38+0.86William KarlssonF3:22+0.80Victor OlofssonF3:22+0.74Mark StoneF4:31+0.40Noah HanifinD0:35+0.26Brayden McNabbD0:15+0.00Nic DowdF0:03+0.00Marc GatcombF0:02+0.00Parker WotherspoonD0:01+0.00
0.250.250.50.50Mark StoneF1:14+0.00Brayden McNabbD2:55-0.01Parker WotherspoonD2:53-0.01Marc GatcombF1:38-0.01Jack EichelF1:52-0.01Nic DowdF1:43-0.02Mitch MarnerF1:39-0.41William KarlssonF1:37-0.41Jeremy LauzonD2:00-0.42Noah HanifinD1:57-0.42

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

SJS
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
VGK
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
SJS won the chances VGK won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
HartStoneBarbashevEichelKarlssonMarnerHowdenHertlOlofssonConnellyDowdGatcombBowmanMcNabbTheodoreAnderssonWotherspoonHanifinLauzonGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3AskarovMarchmentSmithCelebriniWennbergGrafStenbergGoodrowSherwoodOstapchukToffoliChernyshovMisaOrlovDickinsonNurseKesselringTroubaAllan
How to read this

Rows are SJS's skaters, columns VGK's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.