xJawn NHL expected goals

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CGY 1 – 4 EDM

Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers

Final · Sep 26, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from CGY's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = CGY power play · PK = EDM power play · Leading = CGY ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

CGY attacks◀ all strengths
EDM attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: CGY attacks the left net, EDM the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from CGY's side and mirrored for EDM: “CGY PP” shows CGY's power-play attempts on the left and EDM's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
CGY EDM
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
1 4
Expected goals
2.58 2.69
xG%share of xG
49% 51%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
0 1
Shots on goal
24 28
Attempts
67 49
xG by period · whole game 1st0.5–0.82nd1.1–1.43rd0.9–0.5

The Oilers beat the Flames 4–1 at home in a game the chances called about even, CGY 2.6 to EDM 2.7 in expected goals. At 5v5: CGY 1.8, EDM 2.3.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative CGY − EDM xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1CGY AHEAD ▲EDM AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative CGY minus EDM expected goals. Above zero CGY is ahead on chances, below zero EDM is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

CGY
against for own net ice time
0.50.5110Joel FarabeeF15:29+0.64Zayne ParekhD21:07+0.29Connor ZaryF16:45+0.20Ryan StromeF16:06+0.20Yegor SharangovichF15:45+0.20Yan KuznetsovD17:42+0.14Samuel HonzekF14:26+0.09Maxim TsyplakovF13:49+0.08Morgan FrostF15:54+0.04Matvei GridinF15:42-0.01Zach WhitecloudD17:45-0.04Adam KlapkaF13:09-0.06Martin PospisilF11:29-0.11Mikael BacklundF16:07-0.24Matt CoronatoF16:46-0.26Kevin BahlD21:00-0.41Jake MiddletonD15:05-0.42Simon NemecD23:31-0.54
EDM
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Evan BouchardD23:22+1.11Leon DraisaitlF18:58+1.00Vasily PodkolzinF15:34+0.68Connor McDavidF19:33+0.66Mattias EkholmD20:16+0.33Ryan Nugent-HopkinsF16:50+0.13Jake WalmanD19:48+0.11Zach HymanF15:33+0.04Shakir MukhamadullinD16:29+0.03Trent FredericF10:21-0.02Kasperi KapanenF15:31-0.12Colton DachF12:41-0.22Isaac HowardF12:39-0.22Mathieu JosephF12:19-0.22Alex FormentonF12:43-0.24Owen MichaelsF10:56-0.29Ryan SheaD18:09-0.57Connor MurphyD21:44-0.94

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

CGY
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Morgan FrostMatt CoronatoMatvei Gridin13:07+0.30L2Ryan StromeYegor SharangovichConnor Zary12:57+0.20L3Mikael BacklundJoel FarabeeSamuel Honzek11:30+0.10L4Martin PospisilAdam KlapkaMaxim Tsyplakov9:55-0.13DEFENCE PAIRSD1Kevin BahlSimon Nemec17:13-0.51D2Jake MiddletonZayne Parekh13:39-0.50D3Zach WhitecloudYan Kuznetsov13:16+0.071ST2ND3RD011
EDM
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Leon DraisaitlConnor McDavidVasily Podkolzin13:02+0.90L2Mathieu JosephAlex FormentonColton Dach9:00+0.07L3Zach HymanRyan Nugent-HopkinsIsaac Howard7:43-0.22L4Kasperi KapanenTrent FredericOwen Michaels5:53-0.14DEFENCE PAIRSD1Connor MurphyJake Walman16:24-0.24D2Mattias EkholmEvan Bouchard16:19+0.77D3Ryan SheaShakir Mukhamadullin12:19-0.031ST2ND3RD01.251.25

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
CGY won the chances EDM won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
WolfFrostCoronatoGridinStromeSharangovichZaryBacklundFarabeeHonzekPospisilKlapkaTsyplakovBahlNemecMiddletonParekhWhitecloudKuznetsovLeviDraisaitlMcDavidPodkolzinJosephFormentonDachHymanNugent-HopkinsHowardKapanenFredericMichaelsMurphyWalmanEkholmBouchardSheaMukhamadullinGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are CGY's skaters, columns EDM's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
CGYMatt Coronato 3rd9:06 PP 0.17
EDMZach Hyman 1st16:46 PP 0.17
EDMConnor McDavid 2nd7:55 0.08
EDMRyan Shea 2nd13:26 0.06
EDMKasperi Kapanen 3rd10:52 0.25