xJawn NHL expected goals

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TBL 3 – 2 FLA

Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers

Final / SO · Sep 26, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from TBL's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = TBL power play · PK = FLA power play · Leading = TBL ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

TBL attacks◀ all strengths
FLA attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: TBL attacks the left net, FLA the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from TBL's side and mirrored for FLA: “TBL PP” shows TBL's power-play attempts on the left and FLA's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
TBL FLA
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
2 2
Expected goals
2.00 1.96
xG%share of xG
51% 49%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
2 1
Shots on goal
22 22
Attempts
39 42
xG by period · whole game 1st0.8–0.62nd0.3–0.53rd0.7–0.6OT0.2–0.3

The Lightning beat the Panthers 3–2 in a shootout on the road in a game the chances called about even, TBL 2.0 to FLA 2.0 in expected goals. At 5v5: TBL 1.2, FLA 1.1.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative TBL − FLA xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RDOT+0.5−0.5TBL AHEAD ▲FLA AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative TBL minus FLA expected goals. Above zero TBL is ahead on chances, below zero FLA is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

TBL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5110Jakob PelletierF16:59+0.62Benjamin RautiainenF17:58+0.48Pontus HolmbergF20:09+0.39Noah SteenF16:36+0.38Charle-Edouard D'AstousD13:25+0.34Jeffrey VielF12:22+0.33Sam O'ReillyF20:35+0.22Gage GoncalvesF19:53+0.17Conor GeekieF19:56+0.15Zemgus GirgensonsF14:24+0.14Max CrozierD25:59+0.13Nick AbruzzeseF14:57-0.11Lucas MercuriF10:36-0.14Michael CallahanD22:00-0.22Matt PietroniroD12:45-0.22Jarred TinordiD17:13-0.32Maxim GroshevD21:25-0.37Dylan DukeF12:08-0.82
FLA
against for own net ice time
0.50.5110Hunter St. MartinF13:31+0.78Nathan BastianF16:12+0.67Matvei ShuravinD21:22+0.65Gracyn SawchynF13:54+0.63Mikulas HovorkaD19:22+0.53Cole ReinhardtF13:55+0.51Cole SchwindtF15:04+0.10Kai SchwindtF10:34+0.07Marek AlscherD18:33+0.02John BeecherF18:35-0.12Jack DevineF15:13-0.13Donovan SebrangoD18:04-0.21Sandis VilmanisF20:15-0.32Bokondji ImamaF14:02-0.36Uvis BalinskisD24:46-0.53Sam LaffertyF14:34-0.62Alexander PetrovicD23:10-0.68Garnet HathawayF13:35-0.68

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

TBL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Jakob PelletierGage GoncalvesConor Geekie9:59+0.32L2Sam O'ReillyNoah SteenBenjamin Rautiainen8:32+0.27L3Zemgus GirgensonsJeffrey VielPontus Holmberg7:34+0.06L4Nick AbruzzeseLucas MercuriDylan Duke4:44-0.27DEFENCE PAIRSD1Jarred TinordiMichael Callahan15:12-0.32D2Maxim GroshevMatt Pietroniro10:38-0.28D3Charle-Edouard D'AstousMax Crozier8:12+0.071ST2ND3RDOT00.750.75
FLA
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Bokondji ImamaJohn BeecherJack Devine7:54-0.42L2Garnet HathawaySam LaffertySandis Vilmanis6:32-0.38L3Cole SchwindtKai SchwindtHunter St. Martin6:25+0.19L4Nathan BastianCole ReinhardtGracyn Sawchyn3:55+0.56DEFENCE PAIRSD1Alexander PetrovicUvis Balinskis20:43-0.54D2Mikulas HovorkaMatvei Shuravin17:38+0.53D3Donovan SebrangoMarek Alscher15:59-0.141ST2ND3RDOT01.251.25

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
TBL won the chances FLA won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
HildebyPelletierGoncalvesGeekieO'ReillySteenRautiainenGirgensonsVielHolmbergAbruzzeseMercuriDukeTinordiCallahanGroshevPietroniroD'AstousCrozierSchmidImamaBeecherDevineHathawayLaffertyVilmanisSchwindtSchwindtSt. MartinBastianReinhardtSawchynPetrovicBalinskisHovorkaShuravinSebrangoAlscherGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are TBL's skaters, columns FLA's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
TBLLucas Mercuri 1st8:50 0.18
TBLBenjamin Rautiainen 3rd12:58 PP 0.22
FLASandis Vilmanis 1st17:58 0.06
FLAMatvei Shuravin 2nd2:03 0.02