xJawn NHL expected goals

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STL 2 – 3 CHI

St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks

Final · Sep 26, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from STL's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = STL power play · PK = CHI power play · Leading = STL ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

STL attacks◀ all strengths
CHI attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: STL attacks the left net, CHI the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from STL's side and mirrored for CHI: “STL PP” shows STL's power-play attempts on the left and CHI's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
STL CHI
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
2 3
Expected goals
3.40 2.00
xG%share of xG
63% 37%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
2 1
Shots on goal
31 22
Attempts
60 36
xG by period · whole game 1st0.6–0.32nd1.2–1.33rd1.6–0.3

The Blackhawks beat the Blues 3–2 at home despite being out-created 3.4–2.0 in expected goals. That is a finishing-and-goaltending win. The Blues power play made 1.0 xG on 16 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative STL − CHI xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5STL AHEAD ▲CHI AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative STL minus CHI expected goals. Above zero STL is ahead on chances, below zero CHI is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

STL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5222.52.50Philip BrobergD28:28+1.26Dalibor DvorskyF12:06+1.11Jake NeighboursF12:18+1.01Jimmy SnuggerudF19:26+0.87Dylan HollowayF23:13+0.85Mason McTavishF17:26+0.75Jonatan BerggrenF11:23+0.57Robert ThomasF24:47+0.56Colton ParaykoD22:42+0.50Theo LindsteinD16:27+0.49Pavel BuchnevichF15:57+0.33Connor McMichaelF15:24+0.22Cam FowlerD21:02+0.17Logan MaillouxD5:54+0.09Zach DeanF6:43-0.05Brandon CarloD18:24-0.33Alexey ToropchenkoF10:48-0.37Pius SuterF9:25-0.41
CHI
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Tyler BertuzziF19:49+0.58Anton FrondellF22:04+0.43Nick LardisF14:32+0.38Roman KantserovF16:07+0.28Bowen ByramD26:27+0.20Andrew MangiapaneF15:18-0.01Sam RinzelD15:35-0.24Dominic ToninatoF8:25-0.47Cole SmithF10:12-0.58Ryan DonatoF14:31-0.59Dillon BoucherF7:58-0.59Ethan Del MastroD13:56-0.64Ryan GreeneF14:26-0.67Teuvo TeravainenF15:49-0.67Artyom LevshunovD17:53-0.78Ian ColeD17:57-0.88Alex VlasicD21:54-0.88Oliver MooreF15:07-1.01

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

STL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Robert ThomasDylan HollowayJimmy Snuggerud17:37+0.89L2Alexey ToropchenkoPius SuterZach Dean6:04-0.13L3Pavel BuchnevichConnor McMichaelMason McTavish5:49+0.04L4Jonatan BerggrenJake NeighboursDalibor Dvorsky5:36+0.49DEFENCE PAIRSD1Cam FowlerBrandon Carlo8:09-0.29D2Colton ParaykoTheo Lindstein7:52+0.29D3Philip BrobergLogan Mailloux5:13+0.051ST2ND3RD01.751.75
CHI
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Tyler BertuzziAndrew MangiapaneAnton Frondell10:19+0.27L2Ryan DonatoRyan GreeneOliver Moore9:20-0.36L3Teuvo TeravainenNick LardisRoman Kantserov6:34-0.04L4Dominic ToninatoCole SmithDillon Boucher6:00-0.19DEFENCE PAIRSD1Bowen ByramAlex Vlasic15:01-0.30D2Ian ColeSam Rinzel12:05-0.54D3Ethan Del MastroArtyom Levshunov9:22-0.531ST2ND3RD011

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
STL won the chances CHI won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
HoferThomasHollowaySnuggerudToropchenkoSuterDeanBuchnevichMcMichaelMcTavishBerggrenNeighboursDvorskyFowlerCarloParaykoLindsteinBrobergMaillouxKnightBertuzziMangiapaneFrondellDonatoGreeneMooreTeravainenLardisKantserovToninatoSmithBoucherByramVlasicColeRinzelDel MastroLevshunovGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are STL's skaters, columns CHI's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
STLJonatan Berggren 2nd19:04 0.12
STLColton Parayko 3rd18:44 PP 0.05
CHIAnton Frondell 1st6:27 0.19
CHIIan Cole 2nd7:00 SH 0.17
CHIRoman Kantserov 2nd9:31 PP 0.09