xJawn NHL expected goals

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WSH 5 – 1 PHI

Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers

Final · Sep 26, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from WSH's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = WSH power play · PK = PHI power play · Leading = WSH ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

WSH attacks◀ all strengths
PHI attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: WSH attacks the left net, PHI the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from WSH's side and mirrored for PHI: “WSH PP” shows WSH's power-play attempts on the left and PHI's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
WSH PHI
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
5 1
Expected goals
3.08 4.30
xG%share of xG
42% 58%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
5 0
Shots on goal
24 37
Attempts
46 83
xG by period · whole game 1st0.2–1.92nd1.1–1.53rd1.8–0.8

The Capitals beat the Flyers 5–1 on the road despite being out-created 4.3–3.1 in expected goals. That is a finishing-and-goaltending win. The Flyers power play made 1.3 xG on 14 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative WSH − PHI xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+1−1+2−2WSH AHEAD ▲PHI AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative WSH minus PHI expected goals. Above zero WSH is ahead on chances, below zero PHI is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

WSH
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Andrew CristallF16:04+1.44Lynden LakovicF15:34+1.11Spencer SmallmanF19:02+0.82Ethen FrankF17:47+0.59Cam AllenD21:39+0.17Alexander SuzdalevF9:26+0.09Terik ParascakF13:14-0.18Ivan MiroshnichenkoF15:27-0.36Petr SikoraF14:47-0.53Jonathan McDonaldD18:06-0.56Louie BelpedioD19:54-0.67Ryan ChesleyD21:37-0.70Maxim SchaferF10:54-0.74Leon MuggliD18:09-0.78Theodor NiederbachF14:26-0.93Eriks MateikoF14:34-1.16David GucciardiD16:19-1.16Tyler KopffF15:01-1.33
PHI
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Owen TippettF17:12+1.53Porter MartoneF15:24+1.17Travis KonecnyF14:50+1.14Garrett WilsonF10:37+1.09Sean CouturierF14:17+0.94Noel AcciariF12:51+0.86Jamie DrysdaleD22:37+0.62Trevor ZegrasF18:15+0.61Travis SanheimD22:27+0.53Cam YorkD19:56+0.45Rasmus RistolainenD18:09+0.03David JiricekD15:20+0.01Matvei MichkovF18:04-0.12Alex BumpF14:45-0.15Tyson FoersterF17:55-0.15Noah CatesF14:47-0.38Christian DvorakF12:34-0.57Nick SeelerD13:52-0.84

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

WSH
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Spencer SmallmanEthen FrankAndrew Cristall12:57+1.05L2Theodor NiederbachIvan MiroshnichenkoTerik Parascak10:01-0.37L3Eriks MateikoTyler KopffMaxim Schafer8:53-0.56L4Alexander SuzdalevPetr SikoraLynden Lakovic6:13+0.06DEFENCE PAIRSD1Ryan ChesleyLeon Muggli15:21-0.58D2Cam AllenJonathan McDonald12:22-0.55D3Louie BelpedioDavid Gucciardi12:16-0.831ST2ND3RD01.751.75
PHI
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Owen TippettTrevor ZegrasPorter Martone9:32+0.71L2Travis KonecnyNoah CatesTyson Foerster8:31+0.17L3Christian DvorakAlex BumpMatvei Michkov8:05-0.64L4Garrett WilsonSean CouturierNoel Acciari8:04+0.98DEFENCE PAIRSD1Cam YorkJamie Drysdale15:09+0.50D2Rasmus RistolainenTravis Sanheim13:57+0.80D3Nick SeelerDavid Jiricek8:29-0.621ST2ND3RD01.251.25

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
WSH won the chances PHI won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
LindgrenPetersenSmallmanFrankCristallNiederbachMiroshnichenkoParascakMateikoKopffSchaferSuzdalevSikoraLakovicChesleyMuggliAllenMcDonaldBelpedioGucciardiKolosovTippettZegrasMartoneKonecnyCatesFoersterDvorakBumpMichkovWilsonCouturierAcciariYorkDrysdaleRistolainenSanheimSeelerJiricekGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are WSH's skaters, columns PHI's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
WSHAndrew Cristall 2nd4:32 0.36
WSHMaxim Schafer 2nd7:36 0.06
WSHEthen Frank 2nd12:24 PP 0.16
WSHTheodor Niederbach 3rd1:07 0.04
WSHLynden Lakovic 3rd16:06 0.31
PHIJamie Drysdale 2nd0:31 0.06