xJawn NHL expected goals

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SEA 3 – 4 VAN

Seattle Kraken at Vancouver Canucks

Final · Sep 26, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from SEA's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = SEA power play · PK = VAN power play · Leading = SEA ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

SEA attacks◀ all strengths
VAN attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: SEA attacks the left net, VAN the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from SEA's side and mirrored for VAN: “SEA PP” shows SEA's power-play attempts on the left and VAN's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
SEA VAN
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
3 4
Expected goals
1.87 3.40
xG%share of xG
35% 65%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 1
Shots on goal
28 30
Attempts
42 58
xG by period · whole game 1st0.4–0.62nd0.9–0.83rd0.5–2.0

The Canucks beat the Kraken 4–3 at home, and the chances agreed: VAN out-created SEA 3.4–1.9 in expected goals. The Canucks power play made 1.3 xG on 12 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative SEA − VAN xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5+2−2SEA AHEAD ▲VAN AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative SEA minus VAN expected goals. Above zero SEA is ahead on chances, below zero VAN is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

SEA
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Berkly CattonF12:07+0.74Shane WrightF13:06+0.33Kaapo KakkoF13:08+0.27Brandon MontourD24:17+0.26Ryan WintertonF10:40+0.21Ryker EvansD19:43+0.16Matty BeniersF13:36+0.06Jared McCannF12:57+0.02Vince DunnD20:49-0.11Jacob MelansonF13:46-0.30Jordan EberleF18:33-0.44Bobby McMannF20:27-0.69Cale FleuryD15:57-0.82Chandler StephensonF20:22-0.88Adam LarssonD22:14-0.94Frederick GaudreauF14:33-1.21Oscar Fisker MolgaardF16:21-1.40Ryan LindgrenD17:49-1.83
VAN
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5222.52.50Elias PetterssonF17:51+1.09Jake DeBruskF15:05+1.06Filip HronekD23:39+0.93Brock BoeserF17:15+0.91Marco RossiF15:51+0.90Linus KarlssonF17:30+0.72Max SassonF16:20+0.62Elias PetterssonD16:55+0.30Arshdeep BainsF11:24+0.23Drew O'ConnorF18:40+0.22Tom WillanderD20:01+0.22Paul CotterF10:39+0.16Jonathan LekkerimäkiF12:40+0.15Luke SchennD16:31+0.15Jamie OleksiakD19:57+0.07Brendan GallagherF11:42+0.03Liam OhgrenF16:17+0.02Zeev BuiumD19:23-0.00

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

SEA
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Jordan EberleChandler StephensonBobby McMann15:13-0.01L2Frederick GaudreauJacob MelansonOscar Fisker Molgaard11:39-0.38L3Jared McCannKaapo KakkoMatty Beniers9:06-0.01L4Ryan WintertonShane WrightBerkly Catton8:07+0.39DEFENCE PAIRSD1Brandon MontourRyker Evans19:20+0.00D2Adam LarssonVince Dunn16:18+0.09D3Ryan LindgrenCale Fleury14:34-0.841ST2ND3RD01.251.25
VAN
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Linus KarlssonDrew O'ConnorMax Sasson12:33+0.53L2Brock BoeserMarco RossiLiam Ohgren10:24-0.21L3Jake DeBruskElias PetterssonJonathan Lekkerimäki9:07-0.06L4Brendan GallagherPaul CotterArshdeep Bains8:12+0.24DEFENCE PAIRSD1Jamie OleksiakTom Willander15:35+0.10D2Filip HronekZeev Buium14:08-0.32D3Luke SchennElias Pettersson12:12-0.041ST2ND3RD011

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
SEA won the chances VAN won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
DaccordEberleStephensonMcMannGaudreauMelansonFisker MolgaardMcCannKakkoBeniersWintertonWrightCattonMontourEvansLarssonDunnLindgrenFleuryLankinenKarlssonO'ConnorSassonBoeserRossiOhgrenDeBruskPetterssonLekkerimäkiGallagherCotterBainsOleksiakWillanderHronekBuiumSchennPetterssonGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are SEA's skaters, columns VAN's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
SEABrandon Montour 1st2:13 PP 0.04
SEABobby McMann 1st7:51 0.14
SEABerkly Catton 3rd1:29 0.22
VANBrock Boeser 1st11:15 PP 0.10
VANElias Pettersson 2nd2:31 0.17
VANZeev Buium 3rd11:05 PP 0.13
VANJake DeBrusk 3rd18:22 0.17