xJawn NHL expected goals

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PIT 3 – 1 BUF

Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres

Final · Sep 26, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from PIT's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = PIT power play · PK = BUF power play · Leading = PIT ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

PIT attacks◀ all strengths
BUF attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: PIT attacks the left net, BUF the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from PIT's side and mirrored for BUF: “PIT PP” shows PIT's power-play attempts on the left and BUF's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
PIT BUF
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
2 1
Expected goals
3.74 2.08
xG%share of xG
64% 36%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
3 1
Shots on goal
23 24
Attempts
49 51
xG by period · whole game 1st1.6–0.62nd1.1–0.93rd1.1–0.6

The Penguins beat the Sabres 3–1 on the road, and the chances agreed: PIT out-created BUF 3.7–2.1 in expected goals. At 5v5: PIT 3.2, BUF 1.5.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative PIT − BUF xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5+2−2PIT AHEAD ▲BUF AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative PIT minus BUF expected goals. Above zero PIT is ahead on chances, below zero BUF is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

PIT
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Evgeni MalkinF17:45+1.76Hendrix LapierreF18:48+1.61Kris LetangD17:05+1.60Ville KoivunenF15:38+1.43Egor ChinakhovF16:42+1.42Tommy NovakF16:29+0.74Trevor van RiemsdykD18:44+0.71Erik KarlssonD18:46+0.69Declan CarlileD22:24+0.60Bryan RustF8:04+0.35Tristan BrozF10:07+0.03Rutger McGroartyF11:20-0.01Rickard RakellF14:59-0.04Sidney CrosbyF16:03-0.15Nick RobertsonF15:34-0.33Kaedan KorczakD20:45-0.39Samuel GirardD20:44-0.41Filip HallanderF14:17-0.72
BUF
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Josh NorrisF14:38+0.35Josh DoanF17:00+0.24Noah OstlundF16:10+0.02Owen PowerD22:11+0.00Jack QuinnF16:57-0.14Konsta HeleniusF14:34-0.17Tyson KozakF10:39-0.25Sam CarrickF13:07-0.27Zach MetsaD16:48-0.42Peyton KrebsF15:57-0.43Tage ThompsonF19:23-0.57Beck MalenstynF12:08-0.59Rasmus DahlinD24:44-0.60Zach BensonF17:43-0.80Louis CrevierD16:54-0.87Matt GrzelcykD16:48-0.99Conor TimminsD16:37-0.99Ryan McLeodF16:18-1.31

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

PIT
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Evgeni MalkinTommy NovakEgor Chinakhov10:58+0.63L2Sidney CrosbyRickard RakellNick Robertson9:57+0.01L3Bryan RustHendrix LapierreVille Koivunen4:38+0.50L4Filip HallanderTristan BrozRutger McGroarty3:56-0.13DEFENCE PAIRSD1Samuel GirardKaedan Korczak19:38-0.39D2Erik KarlssonDeclan Carlile15:34+0.64D3Kris LetangTrevor van Riemsdyk13:07+0.881ST2ND3RD01.51.5
BUF
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Sam CarrickBeck MalenstynTyson Kozak9:54-0.13L2Tage ThompsonNoah OstlundZach Benson8:40-0.71L3Ryan McLeodPeyton KrebsKonsta Helenius7:44-0.28L4Josh NorrisJack QuinnJosh Doan6:50+0.12DEFENCE PAIRSD1Rasmus DahlinLouis Crevier14:25-0.60D2Owen PowerZach Metsa12:53-0.44D3Matt GrzelcykConor Timmins12:48-1.101ST2ND3RD01.51.5

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
PIT won the chances BUF won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
SilovsMalkinNovakChinakhovCrosbyRakellRobertsonRustLapierreKoivunenHallanderBrozMcGroartyGirardKorczakKarlssonCarlileLetangvan RiemsdykLuukkonenEllisCarrickMalenstynKozakThompsonOstlundBensonMcLeodKrebsHeleniusNorrisQuinnDoanDahlinCrevierPowerMetsaGrzelcykTimminsGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are PIT's skaters, columns BUF's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
PITSidney Crosby 1st9:00 0.07
PITVille Koivunen 1st10:56 0.53
PITNick Robertson 3rd18:55 EN 0.70
BUFRyan McLeod 3rd11:30 PP 0.04