xJawn NHL expected goals

← Preseason

Save a card: Summary · Full card · Game flow · DAL skaters · MIN skaters · DAL lines · MIN lines · Matchups
Today's puzzle Remember Some Guys — name the skater from the shape of his career. Three clues, one guess a day. Play →

DAL 2 – 1 MIN

Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild

Final · Sep 25, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from DAL's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = DAL power play · PK = MIN power play · Leading = DAL ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

DAL attacks◀ all strengths
MIN attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: DAL attacks the left net, MIN the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from DAL's side and mirrored for MIN: “DAL PP” shows DAL's power-play attempts on the left and MIN's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
DAL MIN
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
2 1
Expected goals
2.02 2.61
xG%share of xG
44% 56%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 1
Shots on goal
18 27
Attempts
45 49
xG by period · whole game 1st0.8–1.02nd0.8–1.03rd0.4–0.7

The Stars beat the Wild 2–1 on the road in a game the chances called about even, DAL 2.0 to MIN 2.6 in expected goals. At 5v5: DAL 1.4, MIN 1.8.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative DAL − MIN xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1DAL AHEAD ▲MIN AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative DAL minus MIN expected goals. Above zero DAL is ahead on chances, below zero MIN is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

DAL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Miro HeiskanenD25:35+0.53Jason RobertsonF19:29+0.38Wyatt JohnstonF20:39+0.24Mikko RantanenF20:35+0.24Roope HintzF17:50+0.13Sam SteelF12:59+0.07Thomas HarleyD21:56+0.06Joel KivirantaF10:54-0.05Jamie BennF12:41-0.14Justin HryckowianF15:03-0.17Arttu HyryF11:47-0.23Tyler SeguinF13:57-0.27Nils LundkvistD16:59-0.28Radek FaksaF11:57-0.39Tyler MyersD14:49-0.50Oskar BäckF11:39-0.62Esa LindellD19:09-0.70Lian BichselD15:10-0.80
MIN
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Bobby BrinkF13:28+0.73Maxim ShabanovF14:14+0.72Kirill KaprizovF17:24+0.70Danila YurovF12:33+0.70Zach BogosianD16:10+0.69Quinn HughesD23:44+0.68Ryan HartmanF16:37+0.60Blake ColemanF17:14+0.52Olli MaattaD20:16+0.34Yakov TreninF12:36+0.16Joel Eriksson EkF19:19+0.16Brock FaberD14:27+0.12Matt BoldyF20:54+0.06Jared SpurgeonD19:34-0.39Nick FolignoF12:03-0.45Michael McCarronF12:39-0.48Marcus FolignoF10:49-0.48Jonas BrodinD19:54-0.72

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

DAL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Mikko RantanenWyatt JohnstonJustin Hryckowian10:34-0.18L2Tyler SeguinRoope HintzJason Robertson9:25-0.09L3Jamie BennSam SteelArttu Hyry8:25-0.09L4Radek FaksaOskar BäckJoel Kiviranta6:50-0.00DEFENCE PAIRSD1Miro HeiskanenThomas Harley13:34+0.35D2Esa LindellNils Lundkvist12:39-0.31D3Tyler MyersLian Bichsel12:13-0.531ST2ND3RD011
MIN
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Ryan HartmanYakov TreninBobby Brink9:23+0.21L2Nick FolignoMarcus FolignoMichael McCarron8:54-0.46L3Blake ColemanJoel Eriksson EkMatt Boldy8:23+0.31L4Kirill KaprizovDanila YurovMaxim Shabanov7:35+0.37DEFENCE PAIRSD1Zach BogosianOlli Maatta12:55+0.51D2Jared SpurgeonJonas Brodin10:08-0.55D3Quinn HughesBrock Faber7:51+0.201ST2ND3RD011

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
DAL won the chances MIN won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
DeSmithRantanenJohnstonHryckowianSeguinHintzRobertsonBennSteelHyryFaksaBäckKivirantaHeiskanenHarleyLindellLundkvistMyersBichselWallstedtHartmanTreninBrinkFolignoFolignoMcCarronColemanEriksson EkBoldyKaprizovYurovShabanovBogosianMaattaSpurgeonBrodinHughesFaberGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are DAL's skaters, columns MIN's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
DALRadek Faksa 1st9:18 0.01
DALThomas Harley 2nd18:38 0.02
MINJoel Eriksson Ek 2nd1:54 0.47