xJawn NHL expected goals

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BOS 2 – 3 WSH

Boston Bruins at Washington Capitals

Final / OT · Sep 25, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from BOS's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = BOS power play · PK = WSH power play · Leading = BOS ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

BOS attacks◀ all strengths
WSH attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: BOS attacks the left net, WSH the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from BOS's side and mirrored for WSH: “BOS PP” shows BOS's power-play attempts on the left and WSH's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
BOS WSH
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
2 3
Expected goals
3.56 3.85
xG%share of xG
48% 52%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
2 4
Shots on goal
22 35
Attempts
50 64
xG by period · whole game 1st0.6–1.42nd1.0–0.93rd2.0–1.4OT0.0–0.1

The Capitals beat the Bruins 3–2 in overtime at home in a game the chances called about even, BOS 3.6 to WSH 3.8 in expected goals. The Capitals power play made 1.9 xG on 19 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative BOS − WSH xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RDOT+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5BOS AHEAD ▲WSH AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative BOS minus WSH expected goals. Above zero BOS is ahead on chances, below zero WSH is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

BOS
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220David PastrnakF19:31+1.76JJ PeterkaF18:41+1.76Pavel ZachaF16:52+1.75Morgan GeekieF14:55+1.23Hampus LindholmD21:04+0.99Casey MittelstadtF14:20+0.58Mason LohreiD16:56-0.02Connor CliftonD21:02-0.11James HagensF13:55-0.21Marat KhusnutdinovF12:55-0.33Fraser MintenF18:27-0.40Nikita ZadorovD19:11-0.48Will BorgenD21:12-0.49Dans LocmelisF11:38-0.53Tanner JeannotF11:02-0.73Elias LindholmF17:05-1.13Mark KastelicF11:38-1.55Jonathan AspirotD15:19-1.60
WSH
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5222.52.50Dylan StromeF16:58+1.92Pierre-Luc DuboisF16:17+1.89Jakob ChychrunD24:21+1.73Tom WilsonF18:07+1.36Ryan LeonardF14:47+1.01Ethen FrankF11:30+0.60Alex TuchF14:54+0.42Jordan KyrouF16:54-0.01Cole HutsonD16:55-0.03Ilya ProtasF14:53-0.04Anthony BeauvillierF12:56-0.43Matt RoyD22:19-0.55Vincent DesharnaisD18:02-0.60Timothy LiljegrenD17:11-0.79Boone JennerF14:12-0.85Aliaksei ProtasF15:17-0.85Martin FehérváryD16:55-1.05Justin SourdifF13:01-1.16

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

BOS
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Pavel ZachaMorgan GeekieCasey Mittelstadt11:08+0.54L2Elias LindholmDavid PastrnakJJ Peterka11:05+0.33L3Marat KhusnutdinovFraser MintenJames Hagens10:59-0.29L4Tanner JeannotMark KastelicDans Locmelis9:00-0.53DEFENCE PAIRSD1Connor CliftonNikita Zadorov18:02-0.27D2Hampus LindholmWill Borgen15:43+0.30D3Jonathan AspirotMason Lohrei11:46-0.711ST2ND3RDOT01.51.5
WSH
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Tom WilsonAlex TuchPierre-Luc Dubois10:28+0.19L2Jordan KyrouAliaksei ProtasIlya Protas9:17-0.12L3Boone JennerAnthony BeauvillierJustin Sourdif8:22-0.40L4Dylan StromeEthen FrankRyan Leonard7:56+0.23DEFENCE PAIRSD1Matt RoyJakob Chychrun15:22-0.09D2Timothy LiljegrenMartin Fehérváry12:44-0.86D3Vincent DesharnaisCole Hutson12:18-0.451ST2ND3RDOT01.51.5

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
BOS won the chances WSH won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
SwaymanZachaGeekieMittelstadtLindholmPastrnakPeterkaKhusnutdinovMintenHagensJeannotKastelicLocmelisCliftonZadorovLindholmBorgenAspirotLohreiThompsonWilsonTuchDuboisKyrouProtasProtasJennerBeauvillierSourdifStromeFrankLeonardRoyChychrunLiljegrenFehérváryDesharnaisHutsonGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are BOS's skaters, columns WSH's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
BOSMorgan Geekie 3rd3:40 0.23
BOSDavid Pastrnak 3rd5:56 PP 0.14
WSHDylan Strome 1st18:04 PP 0.40
WSHTom Wilson 2nd1:39 PP 0.27
WSHJordan Kyrou OT0:11 PP 0.07