xJawn NHL expected goals

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TOR 4 2 OTT

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators

Final · Sep 23, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from TOR's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = TOR power play · PK = OTT power play · Leading = TOR ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

TOR attacks◀ all strengths
OTT attacksall strengths ▶
× goal on net missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: TOR attacks the left net, OTT the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from TOR's side and mirrored for OTT: “TOR PP” shows TOR's power-play attempts on the left and OTT's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
TOR OTT
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
3 2
Expected goals
3.07 1.37
xG%share of xG
69% 31%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
3 0
Shots on goal
23 21
Attempts
43 40
xG by period · whole game 1st0.80.62nd1.10.43rd1.20.4

The Maple Leafs beat the Senators 4–2 on the road, and the chances agreed: TOR out-created OTT 3.1–1.4 in expected goals. The Maple Leafs power play made 1.3 xG on 11 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative TOR − OTT xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5+2−2TOR AHEAD ▲OTT AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative TOR minus OTT expected goals. Above zero TOR is ahead on chances, below zero OTT is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

TOR
against for own net ice time
0.50.5110Tinus Luc KoblarF10:41+1.00Vinni LettieriF13:04+0.78Brendan BrissonF9:56+0.67Miroslav HolinkaF10:32+0.54Emil AndraeD12:35+0.48Henrik RybinskiF9:24+0.46Nick BlankenburgD9:04+0.33Ryan TverbergF9:54+0.27Luke HaymesF8:55+0.19Jacob QuillanF11:14+0.12Ben DanfordD14:39+0.09Philippe MyersD13:49+0.04Teddy BluegerF10:33-0.03Steven LorentzF10:27-0.04Brandon DuhaimeF8:59-0.07Landon SimF5:50-0.13Marshall RifaiD13:49-0.15Blake SmithD12:35-0.30
OTT
against for own net ice time
0.50.5110Stephen HallidayF10:17+0.42Tomas HamaraD12:49+0.21Nick CousinsF10:03+0.18Fabian ZetterlundF10:34+0.16Blake MontgomeryF8:19+0.03Tyler BoucherF8:17+0.02Hoyt StanleyD13:18+0.00Matthew AndonovskiD10:02+0.00Ryan SuzukiF6:44+0.00Xavier BourgaultF8:46-0.02Sammy BlaisF6:57-0.18Claude GirouxF12:36-0.27Dylan CozensF12:02-0.40William EklundF12:50-0.40Ben HuttonD14:18-0.49Djibril ToureD12:57-0.57Ridly GreigF12:01-0.68Cameron CrottyD12:59-0.93

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

TOR
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Vinni LettieriBrendan BrissonTinus Luc Koblar7:31+0.50L2Ryan TverbergJacob QuillanLuke Haymes7:19+0.33L3Teddy BluegerSteven LorentzBrandon Duhaime6:20-0.03L4Henrik RybinskiLandon SimMiroslav Holinka3:55-0.13DEFENCE PAIRSD1Blake SmithBen Danford9:28-0.12D2Philippe MyersEmil Andrae7:07+0.12D3Marshall RifaiNick Blankenburg6:31-0.181ST2ND3RD00.750.75
OTT
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Fabian ZetterlundDylan CozensWilliam Eklund8:07+0.13L2Claude GirouxNick CousinsStephen Halliday6:08+0.27L3Ryan SuzukiXavier BourgaultBlake Montgomery5:12+0.00L4Sammy BlaisRidly GreigTyler Boucher4:41-0.07DEFENCE PAIRSD1Hoyt StanleyMatthew Andonovski7:37+0.04D2Tomas HamaraDjibril Toure7:32+0.10D3Ben HuttonCameron Crotty7:21-0.571ST2ND3RD00.750.75

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
TOR won the chances OTT won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
StolarzLettieriBrissonLuc KoblarTverbergQuillanHaymesBluegerLorentzDuhaimeRybinskiSimHolinkaSmithDanfordMyersAndraeRifaiBlankenburgUllmarkZetterlundCozensEklundGirouxCousinsHallidaySuzukiBourgaultMontgomeryBlaisGreigBoucherStanleyAndonovskiHamaraToureHuttonCrottyGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are TOR's skaters, columns OTT's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not. Hover (or tap) any cell for the time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
TORHenrik Rybinski 2nd3:51 PP 0.04
TORSteven Lorentz 3rd10:01 0.16
TORRyan Tverberg 3rd15:43 0.10
TORTeddy Blueger 3rd19:52 EN 0.49
OTTDylan Cozens 2nd6:18 0.17
OTTHoyt Stanley 3rd10:42 0.14