xJawn NHL expected goals

← Preseason

Save a card: Summary · Full card · Game flow · MIN skaters · DAL skaters · MIN lines · DAL lines · Matchups
Today's puzzle Remember Some Guys — name the skater from the shape of his career. Three clues, one guess a day. Play →

MIN 0 – 2 DAL

Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars

Final · Sep 23, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from MIN's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = MIN power play · PK = DAL power play · Leading = MIN ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

MIN attacks◀ all strengths
DAL attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: MIN attacks the left net, DAL the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from MIN's side and mirrored for DAL: “MIN PP” shows MIN's power-play attempts on the left and DAL's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
MIN DAL
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
0 2
Expected goals
1.26 2.38
xG%share of xG
35% 65%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
0 1
Shots on goal
24 24
Attempts
45 45
xG by period · whole game 1st0.2–0.72nd0.4–1.03rd0.6–0.7

The Stars beat the Wild 2–0 at home, and the chances agreed: DAL out-created MIN 2.4–1.3 in expected goals. At 5v5: MIN 1.0, DAL 1.8.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative MIN − DAL xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5MIN AHEAD ▲DAL AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative MIN minus DAL expected goals. Above zero MIN is ahead on chances, below zero DAL is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
DALMatthew Seminoff 2nd15:33 0.22
DALEsa Lindell 3rd10:39 0.05
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

MIN
against for own net ice time
0.50.5110Tyler PitlickF14:03+0.41Charlie StramelF20:59+0.39Mason ShawF11:32+0.23Daemon HuntD21:31+0.19David SpacekD24:02+0.15Justin KirklandF13:33-0.15Hunter HaightF16:40-0.20Dylan GambrellF17:54-0.28Nico SturmF17:52-0.36Jagger JoshuaF10:54-0.38Carson LambosD17:47-0.39Kayden LemireF11:36-0.42Caedan BankierF11:34-0.42Riley HeidtF13:01-0.48Viking Gustafsson NybergD17:51-0.60Matt KierstedD16:32-0.71Rieger LorenzF13:55-0.79Ben DexheimerD18:53-0.85
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Tyler PitlickF11:53+0.46Charlie StramelF12:05+0.42Mason ShawF11:32+0.23Daemon HuntD12:53+0.19David SpacekD15:00+0.10Justin KirklandF10:15-0.11Carson LambosD14:07-0.33Caedan BankierF9:56-0.38Jagger JoshuaF10:24-0.38Hunter HaightF10:08-0.38Nico SturmF8:51-0.42Kayden LemireF11:06-0.42Dylan GambrellF8:55-0.42Riley HeidtF11:14-0.43Matt KierstedD13:22-0.47Viking Gustafsson NybergD15:00-0.51Rieger LorenzF9:50-0.52Ben DexheimerD14:24-0.55
0.250.250.50.50Hunter HaightF2:21+0.25Nico SturmF2:16+0.25Dylan GambrellF2:15+0.25David SpacekD2:15+0.25Charlie StramelF2:11+0.25Daemon HuntD1:38+0.21Carson LambosD0:11+0.00Viking Gustafsson NybergD0:07+0.00Riley HeidtF1:47-0.04Tyler PitlickF1:43-0.04Justin KirklandF1:40-0.04Caedan BankierF1:36-0.04
0.250.250.50.50Justin KirklandF1:38+0.00Caedan BankierF0:02+0.00Carson LambosD3:02-0.05Hunter HaightF2:01-0.07Dylan GambrellF3:02-0.07Viking Gustafsson NybergD2:44-0.10Daemon HuntD3:18-0.18Nico SturmF3:02-0.20David SpacekD3:52-0.20Charlie StramelF3:39-0.24Matt KierstedD2:13-0.24Ben DexheimerD3:12-0.26Rieger LorenzF4:05-0.27
DAL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Kyle CapobiancoD16:42+0.89Michael SgarbossaF18:27+0.73Trey TaylorD13:24+0.65Jamie BennF18:20+0.62Sam SteelF18:01+0.58Arttu HyryF18:24+0.58Ellis RickwoodF12:16+0.49Miro HeiskanenD24:11+0.43Emil HemmingF15:03+0.41Esa LindellD19:41+0.27Dylan HryckowianF13:43+0.15Matthew SeminoffF11:13+0.11Artem ShlaineF13:29+0.06Radek FaksaF13:38-0.02Joel KivirantaF12:54-0.02Oskar BäckF13:56-0.08Lian BichselD21:11-0.10Tyler MyersD19:58-0.21
0.50.5110Trey TaylorD10:31+0.74Kyle CapobiancoD11:31+0.63Michael SgarbossaF10:12+0.51Ellis RickwoodF9:51+0.48Emil HemmingF10:58+0.31Sam SteelF9:54+0.29Jamie BennF10:52+0.29Arttu HyryF9:55+0.29Miro HeiskanenD14:02+0.14Matthew SeminoffF9:39+0.14Lian BichselD17:44+0.11Esa LindellD14:12+0.04Radek FaksaF11:45+0.04Joel KivirantaF11:29+0.04Dylan HryckowianF9:21+0.01Artem ShlaineF9:55+0.01Oskar BäckF11:44-0.03Tyler MyersD17:21-0.13
0.250.250.50.50Arttu HyryF6:11+0.29Michael SgarbossaF6:05+0.29Jamie BennF6:03+0.29Miro HeiskanenD6:03+0.29Sam SteelF5:55+0.29Kyle CapobiancoD3:10+0.22Esa LindellD3:08+0.22Emil HemmingF2:54+0.22Dylan HryckowianF2:43+0.22Ellis RickwoodF0:14+0.17Artem ShlaineF2:44+0.05Radek FaksaF0:13+0.00Oskar BäckF0:12+0.00Joel KivirantaF0:11+0.00Tyler MyersD0:04+0.00
0.250.250.50.50Miro HeiskanenD2:05+0.00Esa LindellD1:54+0.00Arttu HyryF1:08+0.00Sam SteelF1:04+0.00Kyle CapobiancoD0:45-0.00Matthew SeminoffF0:36-0.03Oskar BäckF1:33-0.06Radek FaksaF1:13-0.06Joel KivirantaF0:47-0.06Michael SgarbossaF0:42-0.07Tyler MyersD1:35-0.08Dylan HryckowianF0:28-0.08Trey TaylorD0:42-0.13Ellis RickwoodF0:26-0.20Lian BichselD1:02-0.21

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

MIN
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
DAL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
MIN won the chances DAL won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
PoirierFaksaBäckKivirantaShlaineHemmingHryckowianBennSteelHyrySgarbossaSeminoffRickwoodMyersBichselLindellHeiskanenCapobiancoTaylorGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3WallstedtBankierJoshuaLemireGambrellSturmLorenzPitlickShawStramelKirklandHaightHeidtLambosGustafsson NybergKierstedDexheimerHuntSpacek
How to read this

Rows are MIN's skaters, columns DAL's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.