xJawn NHL expected goals

← Preseason

Save a card: Summary · Full card · Game flow · MIN skaters · DAL skaters · MIN lines · DAL lines · Matchups

MIN 0 2 DAL

Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars

Final · Sep 23, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from MIN's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = MIN power play · PK = DAL power play · Leading = MIN ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

MIN attacks◀ all strengths
DAL attacksall strengths ▶
× goal on net missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: MIN attacks the left net, DAL the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from MIN's side and mirrored for DAL: “MIN PP” shows MIN's power-play attempts on the left and DAL's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
MIN DAL
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
0 2
Expected goals
1.50 2.38
xG%share of xG
39% 61%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 1
Shots on goal
24 24
Attempts
45 45
xG by period · whole game 1st0.20.72nd0.41.03rd0.80.7

The Stars beat the Wild 2–0 at home, and the chances agreed: DAL out-created MIN 2.4–1.5 in expected goals. At 5v5: MIN 1.0, DAL 1.7.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative MIN − DAL xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5MIN AHEAD ▲DAL AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative MIN minus DAL expected goals. Above zero MIN is ahead on chances, below zero DAL is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

MIN
against for own net ice time
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Tyler PitlickF10:04+0.40Mason ShawF6:51+0.32Charlie StramelF13:56+0.14David SpacekD15:12-0.13Daemon HuntD13:42-0.15Justin KirklandF9:48-0.16Jagger JoshuaF7:41-0.21Caedan BankierF7:13-0.26Kayden LemireF7:52-0.37Matt KierstedD10:44-0.40Dylan GambrellF10:37-0.40Carson LambosD12:32-0.42Hunter HaightF10:48-0.47Nico SturmF11:56-0.50Ben DexheimerD11:45-0.53Riley HeidtF10:11-0.55Viking Gustafsson NybergD13:25-0.58Rieger LorenzF9:58-0.64
DAL
against for own net ice time
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Michael SgarbossaF12:11+0.82Ellis RickwoodF7:59+0.59Miro HeiskanenD17:06+0.58Kyle CapobiancoD11:36+0.56Trey TaylorD8:16+0.54Emil HemmingF9:41+0.47Sam SteelF13:37+0.42Arttu HyryF13:51+0.42Jamie BennF13:42+0.42Esa LindellD14:34+0.38Dylan HryckowianF8:53+0.22Matthew SeminoffF6:51+0.16Radek FaksaF9:27+0.07Joel KivirantaF8:44+0.07Lian BichselD12:49+0.01Artem ShlaineF8:30+0.00Oskar BäckF9:39-0.05Tyler MyersD13:19-0.13

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

MIN
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Caedan BankierJagger JoshuaKayden Lemire4:43-0.01L2Dylan GambrellNico SturmRieger Lorenz4:40-0.37L3Justin KirklandHunter HaightRiley Heidt4:23-0.23L4Tyler PitlickMason ShawCharlie Stramel4:22+0.25DEFENCE PAIRSD1Carson LambosViking Gustafsson Nyberg11:31-0.56D2Daemon HuntDavid Spacek11:30-0.13D3Matt KierstedBen Dexheimer9:57-0.511ST2ND3RD00.750.75
DAL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Jamie BennSam SteelArttu Hyry11:40+0.42L2Artem ShlaineEmil HemmingDylan Hryckowian7:50+0.00L3Radek FaksaOskar BäckJoel Kiviranta7:20+0.07L4Michael SgarbossaMatthew SeminoffEllis Rickwood4:37+0.23DEFENCE PAIRSD1Tyler MyersLian Bichsel11:16-0.02D2Esa LindellMiro Heiskanen8:37+0.26D3Kyle CapobiancoTrey Taylor4:48+0.541ST2ND3RD00.750.75

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
MIN won the chances DAL won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
WallstedtBankierJoshuaLemireGambrellSturmLorenzKirklandHaightHeidtPitlickShawStramelLambosGustafsson NybergHuntSpacekKierstedDexheimerPoirierBennSteelHyryShlaineHemmingHryckowianFaksaBäckKivirantaSgarbossaSeminoffRickwoodMyersBichselLindellHeiskanenCapobiancoTaylorGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are MIN's skaters, columns DAL's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not. Hover (or tap) any cell for the time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
DALMatthew Seminoff 2nd15:33 0.22
DALEsa Lindell 3rd10:39 0.05