xJawn NHL expected goals

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Final / SO · Sep 22, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from FLA's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = FLA power play · PK = CAR power play · Leading = FLA ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

FLA attacks◀ all strengths
CAR attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: FLA attacks the left net, CAR the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from FLA's side and mirrored for CAR: “FLA PP” shows FLA's power-play attempts on the left and CAR's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
FLA CAR
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
2 2
Expected goals
3.81 2.85
xG%share of xG
57% 43%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
2 2
Shots on goal
33 26
Attempts
62 51
xG by period · whole game 1st0.9–1.32nd1.3–0.53rd1.2–0.8OT0.5–0.2

The Hurricanes beat the Panthers 3–2 in a shootout at home despite being out-created 3.8–2.8 in expected goals. That is a finishing-and-goaltending win. The Panthers power play made 1.3 xG on 15 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative FLA − CAR xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RDOT+0.5−0.5+1−1FLA AHEAD ▲CAR AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative FLA minus CAR expected goals. Above zero FLA is ahead on chances, below zero CAR is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
FLABrady Tkachuk 1st4:31 0.06
FLAAleksander Barkov 1st7:18 0.05
CARBradly Nadeau 1st7:00 0.05
CARJustin Robidas 2nd11:25 0.01
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

FLA
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Matthew TkachukF16:51+1.11Sam BennettF17:19+0.98Aleksander BarkovF18:11+0.96Sam ReinhartF17:34+0.80Brady TkachukF9:40+0.75Dmitry KulikovD14:05+0.56Radko GudasD13:34+0.54Carter VerhaegheF19:20+0.53Eetu LuostarinenF19:51+0.46Seth JonesD23:36+0.27Sandis VilmanisF14:56+0.25Aaron EkbladD22:45+0.12Bokondji ImamaF11:47-0.08Cole SchwindtF11:26-0.13Anton LundellF22:05-0.25Niko MikkolaD21:05-0.27Gustav ForslingD21:14-0.53Cole ReinhardtF13:41-0.57
0.50.5110Dmitry KulikovD13:10+0.56Radko GudasD12:44+0.54Matthew TkachukF9:45+0.40Aleksander BarkovF11:20+0.38Sam ReinhartF11:17+0.36Brady TkachukF7:49+0.35Niko MikkolaD17:33+0.21Seth JonesD14:15+0.16Sam BennettF11:51+0.15Carter VerhaegheF12:10+0.11Bokondji ImamaF11:47-0.08Cole SchwindtF10:43-0.13Eetu LuostarinenF11:00-0.15Anton LundellF12:37-0.19Sandis VilmanisF12:25-0.22Cole ReinhardtF12:33-0.40Aaron EkbladD15:03-0.56Gustav ForslingD17:23-0.56
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Eetu LuostarinenF4:56+0.83Aaron EkbladD4:53+0.83Sam BennettF4:31+0.69Anton LundellF4:17+0.69Matthew TkachukF5:53+0.58Aleksander BarkovF5:39+0.58Carter VerhaegheF6:09+0.44Seth JonesD5:09+0.44Sam ReinhartF5:02+0.44Brady TkachukF1:51+0.40Sandis VilmanisF1:24+0.25Gustav ForslingD0:16+0.17
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Sandis VilmanisF1:07+0.22Dmitry KulikovD0:55+0.00Radko GudasD0:50+0.00Cole SchwindtF0:14+0.00Aleksander BarkovF0:04+0.00Sam ReinhartF0:04+0.00Cole ReinhardtF1:08-0.16Eetu LuostarinenF3:38-0.22Gustav ForslingD2:51-0.27Aaron EkbladD2:11-0.29Niko MikkolaD2:56-0.30Seth JonesD2:28-0.32Anton LundellF4:03-0.72
CAR
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Mike ReillyD24:45+1.16Charlie CerratoF19:22+0.62Joel NystromD19:00+0.29Justin RobidasF19:32+0.27Felix Unger SörumF21:05+0.27Bradly NadeauF25:10+0.09Filip EkbergF8:00+0.06Ivan RyabkinF11:03+0.01Juha JaaskaF15:16-0.12Viktor NeuchevF8:49-0.13Nicolas DeslauriersF11:12-0.19Mark JankowskiF15:44-0.34Bryce MontgomeryD13:33-0.44Ronan SeeleyD15:52-0.47Skyler Brind'AmourF16:46-0.70Josiah SlavinF14:44-0.77Aleksi HeimosalmiD23:25-1.28Pierre-Olivier JosephD23:00-1.44
0.50.5110Mike ReillyD15:43+0.76Joel NystromD14:45+0.60Skyler Brind'AmourF11:49+0.09Charlie CerratoF12:08+0.07Filip EkbergF8:00+0.06Josiah SlavinF10:18+0.03Ivan RyabkinF10:18+0.01Justin RobidasF11:07-0.00Felix Unger SörumF13:26-0.05Bryce MontgomeryD11:19-0.05Bradly NadeauF13:38-0.08Viktor NeuchevF8:40-0.13Ronan SeeleyD13:53-0.13Mark JankowskiF11:24-0.17Juha JaaskaF13:06-0.19Nicolas DeslauriersF11:08-0.19Aleksi HeimosalmiD17:02-0.64Pierre-Olivier JosephD17:41-0.91
0.50.5110Mike ReillyD4:05+0.82Felix Unger SörumF5:34+0.59Bradly NadeauF5:33+0.59Charlie CerratoF5:30+0.59Justin RobidasF5:22+0.59Aleksi HeimosalmiD0:51+0.00Juha JaaskaF0:50+0.00Mark JankowskiF0:43+0.00Skyler Brind'AmourF0:36+0.00Ivan RyabkinF0:35+0.00Nicolas DeslauriersF0:04+0.00Pierre-Olivier JosephD0:04+0.00
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Juha JaaskaF1:20+0.07Ivan RyabkinF0:10+0.00Viktor NeuchevF0:09+0.00Mark JankowskiF2:47-0.17Charlie CerratoF0:57-0.21Joel NystromD3:47-0.31Bradly NadeauF3:26-0.32Justin RobidasF2:21-0.32Ronan SeeleyD1:59-0.34Aleksi HeimosalmiD3:10-0.36Bryce MontgomeryD2:14-0.39Mike ReillyD4:26-0.43Pierre-Olivier JosephD4:27-0.70Skyler Brind'AmourF4:21-0.79Josiah SlavinF4:26-0.79

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

FLA
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
CAR
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
FLA won the chances CAR won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
BussiPrimeauNadeauUnger SörumCerratoDeslauriersJankowskiJaaskaBrind'AmourSlavinRobidasNeuchevRyabkinEkbergJosephHeimosalmiReillyNystromSeeleyMontgomeryGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3MarkstromSchmidImamaReinhardtSchwindtLuostarinenLundellVilmanisVerhaegheBennettTkachukBarkovReinhartTkachukEkbladForslingJonesMikkolaKulikovGudas
How to read this

Rows are FLA's skaters, columns CAR's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.