xJawn NHL expected goals

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FLA 2 3 CAR

Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes

Final / SO · Sep 22, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from FLA's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = FLA power play · PK = CAR power play · Leading = FLA ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

FLA attacks◀ all strengths
CAR attacksall strengths ▶
× goal on net missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: FLA attacks the left net, CAR the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from FLA's side and mirrored for CAR: “FLA PP” shows FLA's power-play attempts on the left and CAR's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
FLA CAR
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
2 2
Expected goals
3.81 2.85
xG%share of xG
57% 43%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
2 2
Shots on goal
33 26
Attempts
62 51
xG by period · whole game 1st0.91.32nd1.30.53rd1.20.8OT0.50.2

The Hurricanes beat the Panthers 3–2 in a shootout at home despite being out-created 3.8–2.8 in expected goals. That is a finishing-and-goaltending win. The Panthers power play made 1.3 xG on 15 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative FLA − CAR xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RDOT+0.5−0.5+1−1FLA AHEAD ▲CAR AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative FLA minus CAR expected goals. Above zero FLA is ahead on chances, below zero CAR is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

FLA
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Matthew TkachukF13:47+0.99Aleksander BarkovF15:13+0.97Sam ReinhartF14:17+0.82Brady TkachukF9:40+0.75Dmitry KulikovD12:57+0.56Carter VerhaegheF17:22+0.56Radko GudasD12:59+0.54Sam BennettF15:12+0.48Seth JonesD19:12+0.18Eetu LuostarinenF16:05-0.02Sandis VilmanisF12:43-0.04Bokondji ImamaF10:58-0.08Cole SchwindtF10:30-0.13Niko MikkolaD18:25-0.21Cole ReinhardtF11:40-0.40Aaron EkbladD18:11-0.42Anton LundellF17:10-0.51Gustav ForslingD17:20-0.89
CAR
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Mike ReillyD21:38+1.38Felix Unger SorumF15:36+0.71Justin RobidasF14:25+0.71Charlie CerratoF15:15+0.62Joel NystromD16:49+0.46Bradly NadeauF18:46+0.37Filip EkbergF8:00+0.06Ivan RyabkinF9:59+0.01Juha JaaskaF13:54-0.12Viktor NeuchevF8:46-0.13Mark JankowskiF13:08-0.17Nicolas DeslauriersF11:12-0.19Skyler Brind'AmourF13:50-0.52Bryce MontgomeryD12:52-0.56Ronan SeeleyD15:07-0.59Josiah SlavinF12:15-0.60Aleksi HeimosalmiD18:16-0.83Pierre-Olivier JosephD19:36-1.44

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

FLA
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Bokondji ImamaCole ReinhardtCole Schwindt8:59-0.10L2Eetu LuostarinenAnton LundellSandis Vilmanis8:40-0.00L3Aleksander BarkovSam ReinhartBrady Tkachuk8:14+0.79L4Carter VerhaegheSam BennettMatthew Tkachuk7:51+0.39DEFENCE PAIRSD1Seth JonesNiko Mikkola13:31-0.26D2Aaron EkbladGustav Forsling12:31-0.92D3Dmitry KulikovRadko Gudas11:48+0.541ST2ND3RDOT01.51.5
CAR
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Bradly NadeauFelix Unger SorumCharlie Cerrato13:26+0.83L2Nicolas DeslauriersMark JankowskiJuha Jaaska9:55-0.15L3Skyler Brind'AmourJosiah SlavinJustin Robidas8:24+0.00L4Viktor NeuchevIvan RyabkinFilip Ekberg7:38+0.06DEFENCE PAIRSD1Pierre-Olivier JosephAleksi Heimosalmi15:04-0.95D2Mike ReillyJoel Nystrom14:31+0.48D3Ronan SeeleyBryce Montgomery9:59-0.261ST2ND3RDOT01.51.5

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater · hover a cell
FLA won the chances CAR won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more on together, dead even never on together
ImamaReinhardtSchwindtLuostarinenLundellVilmanisBarkovReinhartTkachukVerhaegheBennettTkachukJonesMikkolaEkbladForslingKulikovGudasNadeauUnger SorumCerratoDeslauriersJankowskiJaaskaBrind'AmourSlavinRobidasNeuchevRyabkinEkbergJosephHeimosalmiReillyNystromSeeleyMontgomeryL1L2L3L4D1D2D3L1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are FLA's skaters, columns CAR's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open one means they never met at five-on-five.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not. Hover (or tap) any cell for the time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
FLABrady Tkachuk 1st4:31 0.06
FLAAleksander Barkov 1st7:18 0.05
CARBradly Nadeau 1st7:00 0.05
CARJustin Robidas 2nd11:25 0.01