xJawn NHL expected goals

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WSH 2 – 3 BOS

Washington Capitals at Boston Bruins

Final / SO · Sep 20, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from WSH's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = WSH power play · PK = BOS power play · Leading = WSH ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

WSH attacks◀ all strengths
BOS attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: WSH attacks the left net, BOS the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 246 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from WSH's side and mirrored for BOS: “WSH PP” shows WSH's power-play attempts on the left and BOS's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
WSH BOS
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
2 2
Expected goals
5.27 3.79
xG%share of xG
58% 42%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
5 2
Shots on goal
32 30
Attempts
75 58
xG by period · whole game 1st1.9–0.72nd0.3–1.83rd1.7–1.3OT1.4–0.0

The Bruins beat the Capitals 3–2 in a shootout at home despite being out-created 5.3–3.8 in expected goals. That is a finishing-and-goaltending win. The Capitals power play made 3.8 xG on 36 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative WSH − BOS xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RDOT+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5+2−2WSH AHEAD ▲BOS AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative WSH minus BOS expected goals. Above zero WSH is ahead on chances, below zero BOS is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
WSHJonny Brodzinski 1st8:48 0.13
WSHIvan Miroshnichenko 3rd5:34 0.17
BOSJake Schmaltz 2nd15:32 PP 0.16
BOSCharlie McAvoy 3rd18:17 PP 0.03
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

WSH
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5222.52.5333.53.50Jakob ChychrunD27:27+2.42Tom WilsonF23:17+1.78Pierre-Luc DuboisF18:18+1.51Jonny BrodzinskiF12:43+1.49Ivan MiroshnichenkoF13:52+1.41Boone JennerF18:56+1.24Alex TuchF20:10+1.11Justin SourdifF22:34+0.88Anthony BeauvillierF16:34+0.82Cole HutsonD22:49+0.49Petr SikoraF8:30+0.03Lynden LakovicF10:34+0.01Bogdan TrineyevF13:03-0.54Josh DunneF9:49-0.75Matt RoyD21:10-0.78Dylan McIlrathD13:41-0.78Justin HollD15:18-1.05Vincent DesharnaisD18:19-1.35
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Boone JennerF9:21+0.20Petr SikoraF7:55+0.07Lynden LakovicF9:59+0.05Alex TuchF8:45-0.06Anthony BeauvillierF8:12-0.12Jonny BrodzinskiF8:35-0.17Matt RoyD11:27-0.20Jakob ChychrunD14:54-0.21Justin SourdifF10:51-0.23Tom WilsonF11:34-0.32Justin HollD10:22-0.39Josh DunneF8:42-0.41Dylan McIlrathD10:26-0.44Cole HutsonD14:31-0.44Bogdan TrineyevF10:47-0.46Ivan MiroshnichenkoF8:58-0.49Vincent DesharnaisD11:56-0.57Pierre-Luc DuboisF9:20-0.76
0.50.5111.51.5222.52.5330Jakob ChychrunD6:10+2.73Pierre-Luc DuboisF6:39+2.41Tom WilsonF7:58+2.38Ivan MiroshnichenkoF4:54+1.91Alex TuchF6:19+1.83Jonny BrodzinskiF4:01+1.66Justin SourdifF3:14+1.30Boone JennerF4:18+1.30Anthony BeauvillierF4:24+1.12Cole HutsonD4:56+1.00Vincent DesharnaisD0:06+0.05Josh DunneF0:06+0.05Matt RoyD0:18-0.02Dylan McIlrathD0:09-0.02
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Jonny BrodzinskiF0:07-0.00Bogdan TrineyevF1:41-0.08Cole HutsonD0:21-0.09Pierre-Luc DuboisF0:07-0.17Boone JennerF4:51-0.26Jakob ChychrunD2:01-0.28Dylan McIlrathD2:48-0.32Anthony BeauvillierF2:03-0.38Justin SourdifF5:33-0.38Josh DunneF1:01-0.38Alex TuchF2:08-0.48Tom WilsonF2:06-0.49Justin HollD4:36-0.66Vincent DesharnaisD5:14-0.82Matt RoyD6:12-0.95
BOS
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5222.52.5330James HagensF20:04+1.70Marat KhusnutdinovF18:17+1.34Fraser MintenF21:40+1.15Alex SteevesF18:14+0.96Matthew PoitrasF16:42+0.68Lukas ReichelF12:47+0.67Attilio BiascaF11:07+0.66Joey AbateF9:24+0.45Henri JokiharjuD20:42+0.11Jordan HarrisD16:25-0.12Charlie McAvoyD28:35-0.39Mason LohreiD20:06-0.45Mark KastelicF15:06-0.64Frederic BrunetD21:45-0.82Jake SchmaltzF9:46-1.04Riley DuranF11:24-1.05Sean KuralyF15:36-1.13Jonathan AspirotD17:01-2.97
0.50.5111.51.50Henri JokiharjuD12:58+0.87Fraser MintenF9:09+0.58Attilio BiascaF7:12+0.57Jordan HarrisD13:45+0.54Matthew PoitrasF10:05+0.54Lukas ReichelF8:24+0.54Mark KastelicF10:32+0.48Marat KhusnutdinovF9:12+0.41James HagensF10:04+0.38Frederic BrunetD14:12+0.32Joey AbateF8:48+0.29Mason LohreiD9:54+0.16Sean KuralyF11:28+0.13Charlie McAvoyD13:43+0.01Alex SteevesF10:27-0.08Jonathan AspirotD10:38-0.21Jake SchmaltzF7:10-0.25Riley DuranF8:54-0.31
0.50.5111.51.50Charlie McAvoyD6:31+1.34James HagensF6:36+1.18Alex SteevesF6:21+1.18Fraser MintenF6:16+1.18Marat KhusnutdinovF6:13+1.18Matthew PoitrasF3:51+0.34Riley DuranF0:17+0.20Mason LohreiD3:51+0.17Joey AbateF0:13+0.16Jake SchmaltzF0:12+0.16Frederic BrunetD0:05+0.16Henri JokiharjuD4:04+0.13Lukas ReichelF3:34+0.13Attilio BiascaF3:55+0.09Jordan HarrisD0:06+0.00
0.50.5111.51.5222.52.50James HagensF0:10+0.02Alex SteevesF0:45-0.14Marat KhusnutdinovF2:11-0.26Mason LohreiD4:05-0.43Fraser MintenF2:19-0.43Jordan HarrisD0:17-0.66Henri JokiharjuD2:06-0.84Jake SchmaltzF2:01-0.95Riley DuranF1:50-0.95Mark KastelicF4:34-1.12Sean KuralyF3:53-1.25Frederic BrunetD4:35-1.41Charlie McAvoyD5:25-1.56Jonathan AspirotD6:05-2.56

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

WSH
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
BOS
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
WSH won the chances BOS won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
DiPietroKhusnutdinovMintenHagensKuralyKastelicSteevesReichelPoitrasBiascaSchmaltzDuranAbateMcAvoyBrunetJokiharjuHarrisAspirotLohreiGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3ThompsonTrineyevSikoraLakovicJennerBeauvillierSourdifBrodzinskiDunneMiroshnichenkoWilsonTuchDuboisRoyChychrunDesharnaisHutsonHollMcIlrath
How to read this

Rows are WSH's skaters, columns BOS's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.