xJawn NHL expected goals

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CAR 3 6 FLA

Carolina Hurricanes at Florida Panthers

Final · Sep 20, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from CAR's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = CAR power play · PK = FLA power play · Leading = CAR ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

CAR attacks◀ all strengths
FLA attacksall strengths ▶
× goal on net missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: CAR attacks the left net, FLA the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from CAR's side and mirrored for FLA: “CAR PP” shows CAR's power-play attempts on the left and FLA's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
CAR FLA
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
3 5
Expected goals
1.90 2.69
xG%share of xG
41% 59%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
2 1
Shots on goal
24 33
Attempts
41 53
xG by period · whole game 1st0.61.52nd0.90.83rd0.40.4

The Panthers beat the Hurricanes 6–3 at home, and the chances agreed: FLA out-created CAR 2.7–1.9 in expected goals. FLA scored 5 on 2.7 expected, before the empty-netter.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative CAR − FLA xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5CAR AHEAD ▲FLA AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative CAR minus FLA expected goals. Above zero CAR is ahead on chances, below zero FLA is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

CAR
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Felix Unger SorumF15:17+0.57Justin RobidasF15:57+0.41Bradly NadeauF17:03+0.40Charlie CerratoF13:05+0.31Joel NystromD17:48+0.19Juuso VälimäkiD18:32+0.08Mike ReillyD18:04+0.07Dominik BadinkaD16:38-0.19Gleb TrikozovF8:15-0.20Ivan RyabkinF9:34-0.21Josiah SlavinF11:42-0.25Zachary LansardF8:34-0.26Viktor NeuchevF11:22-0.30Juha JaaskaF13:01-0.31Skyler Brind'AmourF14:45-0.42Jesperi KotkaniemiF14:54-0.50Charles Alexis LegaultD16:16-0.91Noel FransénD13:06-0.93
FLA
against for own net ice time
0.50.5110Brady TkachukF12:28+0.82Aleksander BarkovF13:31+0.71Sam ReinhartF14:33+0.64Aaron EkbladD17:15+0.60Seth JonesD17:36+0.46Eetu LuostarinenF13:47+0.33Anton LundellF15:33+0.15Matthew TkachukF13:17+0.12Jack DevineF9:11+0.11Sandis VilmanisF11:24+0.09Niko MikkolaD17:12+0.04Gustav ForslingD15:48+0.03Cole ReinhardtF9:59-0.00Cole SchwindtF10:29-0.10Sam BennettF14:16-0.15Carter VerhaegheF14:13-0.15Dmitry KulikovD15:30-0.44Radko GudasD15:58-0.70

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

CAR
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Bradly NadeauFelix Unger SorumCharlie Cerrato10:04+0.46L2Jesperi KotkaniemiViktor NeuchevJuha Jaaska9:24-0.30L3Skyler Brind'AmourJosiah SlavinJustin Robidas6:36-0.04L4Gleb TrikozovIvan RyabkinZachary Lansard6:16-0.15DEFENCE PAIRSD1Juuso VälimäkiDominik Badinka9:44-0.17D2Mike ReillyJoel Nystrom8:42+0.01D3Charles Alexis LegaultNoel Fransén5:58-0.871ST2ND3RD011
FLA
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Aleksander BarkovSam ReinhartBrady Tkachuk11:04+0.89L2Carter VerhaegheSam BennettMatthew Tkachuk9:20-0.19L3Eetu LuostarinenAnton LundellSandis Vilmanis8:03+0.20L4Cole ReinhardtCole SchwindtJack Devine7:39+0.11DEFENCE PAIRSD1Seth JonesNiko Mikkola15:12-0.01D2Dmitry KulikovRadko Gudas14:48-0.44D3Aaron EkbladGustav Forsling13:57+0.301ST2ND3RD01.251.25

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
CARDominik Badinka 1st6:04 0.02
CARJustin Robidas 2nd9:34 PP 0.16
CARBradly Nadeau 2nd10:45 0.21
FLABrady Tkachuk 1st12:02 PP 0.07
FLAAleksander Barkov 2nd2:30 0.09
FLACole Reinhardt 2nd4:06 0.06
FLACole Reinhardt 2nd12:10 0.03
FLANiko Mikkola 2nd19:07 0.01
FLABrady Tkachuk 3rd17:45 EN 0.53