xJawn NHL expected goals

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Final · Sep 20, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from CAR's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = CAR power play · PK = FLA power play · Leading = CAR ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

CAR attacks◀ all strengths
FLA attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: CAR attacks the left net, FLA the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from CAR's side and mirrored for FLA: “CAR PP” shows CAR's power-play attempts on the left and FLA's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
CAR FLA
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
3 5
Expected goals
1.90 2.69
xG%share of xG
41% 59%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
2 1
Shots on goal
24 33
Attempts
41 53
xG by period · whole game 1st0.6–1.52nd0.9–0.83rd0.4–0.4

The Panthers beat the Hurricanes 6–3 at home, and the chances agreed: FLA out-created CAR 2.7–1.9 in expected goals. FLA scored 5 on 2.7 expected, before the empty-netter.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative CAR − FLA xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5CAR AHEAD ▲FLA AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative CAR minus FLA expected goals. Above zero CAR is ahead on chances, below zero FLA is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
CARDominik Badinka 1st6:04 0.02
CARJustin Robidas 2nd9:34 PP 0.16
CARBradly Nadeau 2nd10:45 0.21
FLABrady Tkachuk 1st12:02 PP 0.07
FLAAleksander Barkov 2nd2:30 0.09
FLACole Reinhardt 2nd4:06 0.06
FLACole Reinhardt 2nd12:10 0.03
FLANiko Mikkola 2nd19:07 0.01
FLABrady Tkachuk 3rd17:45 EN 0.53
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

CAR
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Felix Unger SörumF18:12+0.49Justin RobidasF18:51+0.42Bradly NadeauF19:49+0.32Charlie CerratoF15:47+0.23Mike ReillyD19:25+0.07Joel NystromD20:15+0.00Juuso ValimakiD21:43-0.00Ivan RyabkinF11:39-0.18Juha JaaskaF14:25-0.21Dominik BadinkaD18:32-0.26Gleb TrikozovF9:43-0.27Viktor NeuchevF11:49-0.30Josiah SlavinF13:46-0.35Jesperi KotkaniemiF16:15-0.40Zachary LansardF10:46-0.44Skyler Brind'AmourF17:34-0.53Charles Alexis LegaultD17:06-0.80Noel FransénD16:04-1.00
0.50.5110Justin RobidasF11:26+0.35Mike ReillyD15:22+0.24Joel NystromD16:29+0.17Felix Unger SörumF12:48+0.13Dominik BadinkaD16:59+0.10Charlie CerratoF11:17+0.08Skyler Brind'AmourF13:35+0.05Juuso ValimakiD17:10+0.01Bradly NadeauF12:33-0.07Juha JaaskaF12:21-0.08Josiah SlavinF12:47-0.13Jesperi KotkaniemiF12:30-0.17Ivan RyabkinF10:38-0.18Gleb TrikozovF9:43-0.27Viktor NeuchevF11:49-0.30Charles Alexis LegaultD14:41-0.35Zachary LansardF10:46-0.44Noel FransénD14:11-0.86
0.250.250.50.50Felix Unger SörumF4:28+0.36Bradly NadeauF4:25+0.36Justin RobidasF4:01+0.36Juuso ValimakiD2:39+0.32Charlie CerratoF2:27+0.32Jesperi KotkaniemiF2:43+0.04Noel FransénD1:18+0.00Juha JaaskaF1:05+0.00Skyler Brind'AmourF1:02+0.00Ivan RyabkinF0:52+0.00
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Ivan RyabkinF0:09+0.00Felix Unger SörumF0:02+0.00Juha JaaskaF0:59-0.13Noel FransénD0:10-0.14Bradly NadeauF1:32-0.17Charlie CerratoF1:20-0.17Josiah SlavinF0:59-0.22Jesperi KotkaniemiF0:49-0.27Juuso ValimakiD1:41-0.33Dominik BadinkaD1:33-0.36Mike ReillyD2:41-0.37Joel NystromD1:59-0.37Charles Alexis LegaultD2:25-0.45Justin RobidasF2:05-0.49Skyler Brind'AmourF2:40-0.58
FLA
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Brady TkachukF14:09+0.99Seth JonesD20:53+0.93Sam ReinhartF15:59+0.91Aleksander BarkovF15:17+0.88Aaron EkbladD19:39+0.67Matthew TkachukF14:59+0.48Eetu LuostarinenF16:33+0.32Jack DevineF11:03+0.30Niko MikkolaD19:51+0.23Cole ReinhardtF12:02+0.18Gustav ForslingD17:59+0.10Cole SchwindtF13:20+0.09Sandis VilmanisF14:06+0.09Anton LundellF18:41+0.04Sam BennettF15:08-0.07Carter VerhaegheF15:01-0.07Dmitry KulikovD18:11-0.54Radko GudasD18:34-0.80
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Aaron EkbladD14:13+0.60Niko MikkolaD16:36+0.43Seth JonesD15:02+0.39Jack DevineF11:03+0.30Gustav ForslingD15:20+0.30Cole SchwindtF10:39+0.24Brady TkachukF11:17+0.24Eetu LuostarinenF11:51+0.21Cole ReinhardtF12:02+0.18Sam ReinhartF12:43+0.17Aleksander BarkovF11:53+0.14Sandis VilmanisF11:43+0.09Anton LundellF13:05-0.03Sam BennettF12:12-0.13Carter VerhaegheF12:04-0.13Matthew TkachukF11:55-0.27Dmitry KulikovD16:32-0.38Radko GudasD17:09-0.64
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Aleksander BarkovF3:01+0.75Sam ReinhartF3:01+0.75Matthew TkachukF2:55+0.75Seth JonesD2:49+0.75Brady TkachukF2:39+0.75Aaron EkbladD2:30+0.27Eetu LuostarinenF2:21+0.27Carter VerhaegheF2:16+0.27Sam BennettF2:15+0.27Anton LundellF2:15+0.27Niko MikkolaD0:18+0.00
0.250.250Sandis VilmanisF1:44+0.00Matthew TkachukF0:09+0.00Seth JonesD2:05-0.00Niko MikkolaD2:03-0.00Cole SchwindtF2:41-0.15Eetu LuostarinenF1:56-0.15Dmitry KulikovD1:14-0.16Radko GudasD1:00-0.16Aaron EkbladD2:15-0.19Gustav ForslingD2:01-0.19Anton LundellF2:25-0.20

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

CAR
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FLA
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
CAR won the chances FLA won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
MarkstromVerhaegheBennettTkachukBarkovReinhartTkachukLuostarinenLundellVilmanisReinhardtSchwindtDevineKulikovGudasJonesMikkolaEkbladForslingGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3KochetkovNadeauUnger SörumCerratoKotkaniemiNeuchevJaaskaBrind'AmourSlavinRobidasTrikozovRyabkinLansardValimakiBadinkaAlexis LegaultFransénReillyNystrom
How to read this

Rows are CAR's skaters, columns FLA's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.