xJawn NHL expected goals

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Final / OT · Sep 19, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from TOR's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = TOR power play · PK = MTL power play · Leading = TOR ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

TOR attacks◀ all strengths
MTL attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: TOR attacks the left net, MTL the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 246 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from TOR's side and mirrored for MTL: “TOR PP” shows TOR's power-play attempts on the left and MTL's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
TOR MTL
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
3 4
Expected goals
2.60 4.21
xG%share of xG
38% 62%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
3 4
Shots on goal
21 30
Attempts
37 72
xG by period · whole game 1st0.2–1.52nd1.5–1.03rd0.6–0.7OT0.2–1.0

The Canadiens beat the Maple Leafs 4–3 in overtime at home, and the chances agreed: MTL out-created TOR 4.2–2.6 in expected goals. The Maple Leafs power play made 1.3 xG on 14 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative TOR − MTL xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RDOT+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5+2−2TOR AHEAD ▲MTL AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative TOR minus MTL expected goals. Above zero TOR is ahead on chances, below zero MTL is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
TORHenrik Rybinski 2nd3:56 PP 0.28
TORColton Sissons 2nd8:32 PP 0.11
TORMarc Johnstone 2nd16:21 0.22
MTLJuraj Slafkovský 1st4:27 0.04
MTLIvan Demidov 1st12:04 PP 0.09
MTLLane Hutson 3rd2:43 0.09
MTLCole Caufield OT4:22 0.16
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

TOR
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Henrik RybinskiF11:14+0.49Brendan BrissonF15:10+0.36Marc JohnstoneF5:43+0.35Vinni LettieriF21:14+0.29Michael PezzettaF4:50+0.29Ryan TverbergF13:38+0.16Dakota MermisD21:08+0.02Teddy BluegerF16:19-0.14Brandon DuhaimeF18:40-0.24Easton CowanF21:51-0.28Logan ShawF14:13-0.28Troy StecherD21:24-0.30Oliver Ekman-LarssonD23:53-0.57Nick PaulF22:58-0.82Nick BlankenburgD24:47-0.84Noah ChadwickD14:12-1.18Cole McWardD15:36-1.23Colton SissonsF23:09-1.35
0.50.5110Marc JohnstoneF5:29+0.49Troy StecherD18:00+0.48Dakota MermisD18:00+0.45Michael PezzettaF4:50+0.29Henrik RybinskiF8:43+0.04Teddy BluegerF15:38+0.01Brendan BrissonF12:17-0.14Brandon DuhaimeF14:52-0.21Vinni LettieriF14:56-0.27Nick BlankenburgD16:38-0.29Oliver Ekman-LarssonD14:48-0.32Ryan TverbergF10:56-0.38Logan ShawF9:28-0.40Colton SissonsF13:28-0.53Nick PaulF14:49-0.81Easton CowanF15:57-0.84Cole McWardD14:02-1.03Noah ChadwickD13:23-1.12
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Oliver Ekman-LarssonD5:08+0.62Vinni LettieriF5:08+0.62Easton CowanF5:07+0.62Nick PaulF5:04+0.62Nick BlankenburgD2:38+0.60Colton SissonsF4:27+0.58Ryan TverbergF2:03+0.54Brendan BrissonF1:54+0.51Henrik RybinskiF1:52+0.51Logan ShawF2:54+0.33Dakota MermisD0:10+0.31Brandon DuhaimeF0:53+0.13Teddy BluegerF0:06+0.04Troy StecherD0:06+0.04
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Logan ShawF0:42+0.00Noah ChadwickD0:23-0.05Oliver Ekman-LarssonD1:18-0.08Brandon DuhaimeF1:17-0.08Marc JohnstoneF0:12-0.14Cole McWardD0:30-0.19Nick BlankenburgD1:42-0.31Dakota MermisD1:12-0.49Colton SissonsF1:50-0.55Troy StecherD1:28-0.58Nick PaulF1:49-0.63
MTL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5222.52.50Juraj SlafkovskýF16:37+2.28Ivan DemidovF18:59+2.20Lane HutsonD24:50+1.04Sasha PastujovF11:57+0.75Jared DavidsonF12:39+0.74Nick SuzukiF20:10+0.67Cole CaufieldF16:53+0.58Alexandre CarrierD22:23+0.53Ethan SamsonD15:39+0.42Luke MittelstadtD18:59+0.15Oliver KapanenF18:58+0.10Owen BeckF14:23+0.07Alex BelzileF11:04-0.04Jayden StrubleD20:51-0.15Tyler ThorpeF11:34-0.21Chris KreiderF17:05-0.24Arber XhekajD21:31-0.40Lucas CondottaF11:16-0.83
0.50.5110Jared DavidsonF9:57+0.73Owen BeckF11:11+0.72Juraj SlafkovskýF12:29+0.70Ivan DemidovF14:34+0.67Luke MittelstadtD13:54+0.66Sasha PastujovF10:46+0.63Oliver KapanenF14:34+0.55Ethan SamsonD14:52+0.42Alexandre CarrierD15:11+0.35Jayden StrubleD15:59+0.15Arber XhekajD15:12+0.15Lane HutsonD19:23+0.09Cole CaufieldF12:48-0.15Alex BelzileF9:16-0.16Nick SuzukiF14:34-0.19Chris KreiderF13:00-0.23Lucas CondottaF7:36-0.25Tyler ThorpeF10:44-0.26
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Nick SuzukiF1:42+0.69Lane HutsonD1:42+0.69Juraj SlafkovskýF1:42+0.69Ivan DemidovF1:42+0.69Cole CaufieldF1:35+0.55Chris KreiderF1:19+0.26Alex BelzileF1:14+0.12Oliver KapanenF1:13+0.12Sasha PastujovF1:11+0.12Luke MittelstadtD1:02+0.12Arber XhekajD0:32+0.05Jayden StrubleD0:23+0.05Owen BeckF0:22+0.05Jared DavidsonF0:21+0.05Tyler ThorpeF0:20+0.05
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Alex BelzileF0:34+0.00Lane HutsonD0:06-0.04Jared DavidsonF1:53-0.05Nick SuzukiF0:41-0.06Chris KreiderF2:01-0.27Jayden StrubleD3:21-0.37Lucas CondottaF3:40-0.57Arber XhekajD4:41-0.60Oliver KapanenF2:36-0.62Luke MittelstadtD3:08-0.63Owen BeckF2:22-0.71Alexandre CarrierD4:33-0.89

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

TOR
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
MTL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
TOR won the chances MTL won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
FowlerDobesKapanenSlafkovskýDemidovKreiderSuzukiCaufieldPastujovBeckDavidsonBelzileCondottaThorpeCarrierHutsonStrubleXhekajMittelstadtSamsonGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3HlavajAkhtyamovSissonsPaulCowanBluegerDuhaimeLettieriShawBrissonTverbergPezzettaRybinskiJohnstoneMermisStecherEkman-LarssonBlankenburgMcWardChadwick
How to read this

Rows are TOR's skaters, columns MTL's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.