xJawn NHL expected goals

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MTL 4 1 TOR

Montréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs

Final · Sep 19, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from MTL's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = MTL power play · PK = TOR power play · Leading = MTL ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

MTL attacks◀ all strengths
TOR attacksall strengths ▶
× goal on net missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: MTL attacks the left net, TOR the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from MTL's side and mirrored for TOR: “MTL PP” shows MTL's power-play attempts on the left and TOR's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · preseason
MTL TOR
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
3 1
Expected goals
2.59 2.10
xG%share of xG
55% 45%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 1
Shots on goal
28 25
Attempts
55 45
xG by period · whole game 1st1.00.72nd0.71.03rd0.80.4

The Canadiens beat the Maple Leafs 4–1 on the road in a game the chances called about even, MTL 2.6 to TOR 2.1 in expected goals. The Maple Leafs power play made 0.9 xG on 15 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative MTL − TOR xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1MTL AHEAD ▲TOR AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative MTL minus TOR expected goals. Above zero MTL is ahead on chances, below zero TOR is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

MTL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Zachary BolducF16:16+1.07Alexandre TexierF16:02+1.07Kirby DachF16:31+0.95Maksymilian SzuberD13:26+0.61Florian XhekajF11:59+0.41Reilly WalshD13:25+0.33Brett BerardF12:45+0.17Phillip DanaultF18:00+0.12Noah DobsonD22:49+0.09Samuel PoulinF10:02+0.04Alex NewhookF18:46-0.04Filip MesarF9:55-0.13Josh AndersonF17:38-0.15David ReinbacherD22:02-0.20Mike MathesonD23:48-0.23Hunter McKownF10:53-0.26Adam EngstromD19:56-0.31Jake EvansF15:49-0.49
TOR
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Jack RoslovicF19:49+0.62Auston MatthewsF21:20+0.57William NylanderF22:06+0.43John TavaresF21:03+0.24Matthew KniesF20:22+0.13Darren RaddyshD24:05+0.11Gavin McKennaF20:39+0.10Tinus Luc KoblarF11:29+0.01Bo GroulxF14:17-0.17Harry NansiF6:14-0.25Chris TanevD18:23-0.35Marshall RifaiD14:26-0.38Emil AndraeD17:46-0.40Jake McCabeD19:26-0.41Jacob QuillanF12:09-0.44Zack MacEwenF8:10-0.56Steven LorentzF9:16-0.56Ben DanfordD14:04-0.57

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

MTL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Alexandre TexierKirby DachZachary Bolduc14:23+0.97L2Phillip DanaultJosh AndersonFlorian Xhekaj9:53+0.35L3Jake EvansAlex NewhookBrett Berard9:04+0.07L4Samuel PoulinFilip MesarHunter McKown8:00+0.01DEFENCE PAIRSD1Mike MathesonNoah Dobson17:57-0.31D2Adam EngstromDavid Reinbacher17:36-0.12D3Reilly WalshMaksymilian Szuber11:00+0.541ST2ND3RD01.51.5
TOR
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1John TavaresWilliam NylanderGavin McKenna10:41-0.03L2Jack RoslovicAuston MatthewsMatthew Knies10:32+0.10L3Steven LorentzZack MacEwenJacob Quillan5:56-0.40L4Bo GroulxTinus Luc KoblarHarry Nansi3:33-0.16DEFENCE PAIRSD1Chris TanevJake McCabe16:10-0.34D2Marshall RifaiBen Danford10:22-0.35D3Darren RaddyshEmil Andrae10:17-0.081ST2ND3RD011

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
MTLPhillip Danault 2nd0:51 0.11
MTLMaksymilian Szuber 3rd4:46 0.02
MTLPhillip Danault 3rd18:59 EN 0.41
MTLSamuel Poulin 3rd19:37 0.12
TORDarren Raddysh 2nd16:39 PP 0.05