Carolina Hurricanes

Metropolitan · 16-3

19 GP
2025-26 · playoffs

Adjusts with rink filters

shots for◀ 5v5 offense

shots against5v5 defense ▶

How to read this map

One rink, both ends: what CAR generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per game. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league, the league baseline at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · • on net · ◦ missed · small • blocked.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout, and the strength buckets segregate them anyway — which is why the empty-net control greys out unless the view can actually contain one. Everything inside the outlined box moves with the filters; everything below it does not.

Observed production

5v5 · playoffs

for against

axis spans ±164% of league average · centre = average · right = more

Goalsteam

46 94th pctl28 84th pctl

Shotsteam

463 100th pctl334 88th pctl

Attemptsteam

1,059 100th pctl762 88th pctl

xGteam

45.9 100th pctl37.4 88th pctl

xGF%share of team xG

55.1%100th pctl

0% 50% = even split · gray = league middle 50% / 90% 100%

Percentiles and the gray spread rank against all 32 teams recomputed under the current filter — every bar and band here moves together, so a slice never ranks against a different slice's league.

Rolling xGF%

5v5 · playoffs

Per-game chance share, smoothed. drag the slider to set the window

Model estimates

🔒 full season · 5v5

Season-long ratings — the filters above don't apply here. goals vs league average · bar grows from average

Shootingour skaters · on our shots

-1.46th pctl

1,059 attempts · 100% by rated shooters

Savingour goalies · on shots faced

+3.194th pctl

Frederik Andersen 620 · Brandon Bussi 142 shots faced

Shooting againsttheir skaters · on shots faced

-1.813th pctl

sign-flipped — positive means they shot worse than average

Saving againsttheir goalies · on our shots

-2.513th pctl

negative means their goalies stopped more than average

−6league average+6

These four are not centred at zero: the league average of each sits well away from it, and the two against columns barely vary between teams, since every team faces roughly average opposition. So the level of a bar is not the signal — its rank is. They are shown because they genuinely move adjusted xGF% below, and folding them into the two own-team rows would have hidden half of that.

Adjusted xGF%skill-weighted chance share

53.8%81st pctl · -1.34 pp

0% 50% = even split · gray = league middle 50% / 90% 100%

How it's built, and what it isn't

unadjusted 55.1% +shooting -0.79+saving against -1.44+shooting against -1.14+saving +2.04 = adjusted 53.8%

How it's builtEvery 5v5 shot is re-scored with σ(logit(xG) + shooter − goalie) and both ends re-summed. Both skill terms land on every shot — one team's for side, the other's against side — so the league share still averages 50%. The two moves are taken in that order and sum exactly to the total; shares don't decompose additively, so a side-by-side split would not close.

What it isn'tA descriptive re-score of shots already taken, not a forecast. Against future goal share the combined adjustment is indistinguishable from plain xGF% (+0.019 r, p = 0.192); only the shooting half shows a small honest lift (+0.026, p = 0.020), and the saving half contributes nothing forward-looking. The premise underneath is itself unestablished — xGF% over GF% is +0.040, p = 0.246. Read it as what this roster's skill was worth on these shots — nothing more.

The four segments are the four rows above, in order. They are four and not two because η puts both rating terms on every shot: the shots we took carry our shooters and the opposing goalie, and the shots we faced carry their shooters and ours. Over a full season the two “against” terms would sit near league average and contribute nothing — but the ratings are not centred at zero this season, so they do move the number, and hiding them inside a single “shots faced” figure would have left half the adjustment unexplained.

Season context

descriptive · not modeled

How the season was played, not how well. Not a modeled component: each is its own metric (a rate, a TOI share, or opponents' net xG-RAPM), shown with a league percentile only where one exists, never added together. Not a grade.

Ice timeshare by strength

5v5 77%PPPK

-0.4PP − PK min/60

Score stateTOI by game state

trail 18%tied 41%lead 41%

leads a lot

Goalie workloadstarter's share of shots

81%of 5v5 shots against

Schedule strengthopponents' net xG-RAPM

not available in the pipeline

—

0league average100 pctl

Full table · all numbers

Family	Stat	Value (current slice)
Observed ◆ filtered	Goals for / against	46 / 28
Observed ◆ filtered	xG for / against	45.9 / 37.4
Observed ◆ filtered	Shots for / against	463 / 334
Observed ◆ filtered	Attempts for / against	1,059 / 762
Modeled 🔒 5v5	Shooting — our skaters · on our shots	-1.4 G 6th pctl
Modeled 🔒 5v5	Saving — our goalies · on shots faced	+3.1 G 94th pctl
Modeled 🔒 5v5	Shooting against — their skaters · on shots faced	-1.8 G 13th pctl
Modeled 🔒 5v5	Saving against — their goalies · on our shots	-2.5 G 13th pctl
Modeled 🔒 5v5	Unadjusted xGF%	55.1%
Modeled 🔒 5v5	↳ shooting shift	-0.79 pp
Modeled 🔒 5v5	↳ saving against shift	-1.44 pp
Modeled 🔒 5v5	↳ shooting against shift	-1.14 pp
Modeled 🔒 5v5	↳ saving shift	+2.04 pp
Modeled 🔒 5v5	Adjusted xGF%	53.8% 81st pctl
Context	Ice time — share by strength	-0.4
Context	Score state — TOI by game state	leads a lot
Context	Goalie workload — starter's share of shots	81%
Context	Schedule strength — opponents' net xG-RAPM	—

Observed values reflect the active rink filters; modeled values are fixed at their full-season 5v5 fit.

Modeled ratings come from joint__baseline_xg__42ccb89b (as of 2026-06-14) — a separate surface from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.