xJawn NHL expected goals

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Ben Meyers

C · Seattle Kraken · career →

52 GP · 529 min 5v5
2025-26 · 5v5
Adjusts with rink filters
on-ice for◀ 5v5 offense
on-ice against5v5 defense ▶
How to read this map

One rink, both ends while Ben Meyers is on the ice: what the team generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per 60 minutes of ice time (a player's exposure is time, not games). The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league, the league baseline per team-hour at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · on net · missed · small blocked — and own shots narrows the left end's markers to attempts Ben Meyers took.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout. On-ice membership comes from the shift charts; attempts without usable shift coverage are absent from both ends. Blocked-shot membership cannot be cross-checked against the play-by-play, so treat blocked-marker detail as softer than the rest.

Observed production

5v5 · on-ice
for against
axis spans ±200% of the forward cohort average · centre = average · right = more
Goalson-ice
22 26th pctl34 48th pctl
Shotson-ice
205 15th pctl257 22nd pctl
Attemptson-ice
440 14th pctl526 17th pctl
xGon-ice
22.1 23rd pctl22.1 18th pctl
xGF%share of on-ice xG
50.0%53rd pctl
0% 50% = even split · gray = cohort middle 50% / 90% 100%

Percentiles rank against the other forwards over the display floor at the selected strength — a non-strength filter (rush, period, …) moves the bars but keeps that strength's spread as the backdrop.

Rolling on-ice xGF%

5v5 · on-ice
Per-game chance share while on the ice, smoothed. drag the slider to set the window

Model estimates

🔒 full season · not filtered
Season-long ratings — the filters above don't apply here.
creating   preventing   creates both  ·  paler = special teams  ·  solid = on-ice RAPM · hatched = skill rating  ·  ▽ = the total
Shooting
Conversionall shooter stages
outside the PP -0.82 goals vs average
-0.8228th pctl
Offense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGF impact
+1.7676th pctl
Defense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGA, flipped
-0.3044th pctl
BlockingBlocking · season-resolved
-0.0233rd pctl
Special teams
Power playST RAPM · 3-season window
-0.0743rd pctl
Penalty killST RAPM · season-resolved
-0.0423rd pctl
Disciplinedrawn − taken
+0.5859th pctl
GAAgoals above average, this season
Offense impact +1.76 goals vs averageDefense impact -0.30 goals vs averageConversion · outside the PP -0.82 goals vs averageDiscipline +0.58 goals vs average
+1.0961st pctl
grouped by game state · 5v5 → power play → kill
−18.600 = league average+18.60

Ranked against forwards; the band behind each bar is that cohort's spread (p5–p95, middle half brighter, dashed median), so where a bar lands against its band is the rank — the ordinal beside it makes that exact. Zero is whichever baseline the toggle selects — the league-average skater, or replacement level — and every row, its band and its ordinal are all drawn against that one baseline, so the bar and the number can never describe different things. Each row's bar grows from zero, so its end IS its value; the composite is the rows stacked, running both ways from zero, so only it carries a to mark the net. The rows sum to the total with nothing left over. The per-shot rating is quality only: it says nothing about how many attempts a player generates or faces, which is what the attempts figure is for.

Usage & context

descriptive · not modeled
The job the coach handed Ben Meyers, not how well it went. Not a modeled component: each is its own metric (minutes, a rate, a TOI share, or opponents'/teammates' net xG-RAPM), shown with a cohort percentile only where one exists, never added together. Not a grade. The deployment rows are measured over the same 5v5 stints the isolate is fit on (regular season + playoffs); ice time and the penalty rates are all situations, every game — penalties create non-5v5 time, so a 5v5 denominator would inflate every rate.
Time on iceall situations · min per game
11:55per game
Penalties takenminor penalties / 60
0.48per 60 · all situations
Penalties drawnminor penalties / 60
0.77per 60 · all situations
Zone startsOZS% · O-zone start share
20%offensive / (off + def)
Score stateTOI by game state
trail 34%tied 40%lead 26%
often tied
Competition (QoC)opponents' net xG-RAPM
-0.011xG/60
Teammates (QoT)teammates' net xG-RAPM
-0.122xG/60
On-the-flyshare of 5v5 TOI
66%of 5v5 TOI
0cohort average100 pctl

A skater absent from the fit counts as exactly cohort average (0) in QoC/QoT — the same claim ridge shrinkage makes. Penalty rates are descriptive only: taken-rate includes defensively correct penalties, and neither side is opponent- or deployment-adjusted. Nothing here is priced in goals.

Full table · all numbers
FamilyStatValue (current slice)
Observed ◆ filtered Goals on-ice for / against 22 / 34
Observed ◆ filtered xG on-ice for / against 22.1 / 22.1
Observed ◆ filtered Shots on-ice for / against 205 / 257
Observed ◆ filtered Attempts on-ice for / against 440 / 526
Observed ◆ filteredxGF% 50.0%
Modeled 🔒 season Conversion — all shooter stages -0.82 28th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 115 outside the PP 25th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 0 on the PP 5th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — per-shot skill 19th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGF impact +1.76 76th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGA, flipped -0.30 44th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Blocking — Blocking · season-resolved -0.02 33rd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Blocking — 685 attempts faced 24th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Blocking — per-shot suppression 10th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Power play — ST RAPM · 3-season window -0.07 43rd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Penalty kill — ST RAPM · season-resolved -0.04 23rd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Discipline — drawn − taken +0.58 59th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season GAA +1.09 61st pctl
ContextTime on ice — all situations · min per game 11:55 (19th pctl)
ContextPenalties taken — minor penalties / 60 0.48 (30th pctl)
ContextPenalties drawn — minor penalties / 60 0.77 (51st pctl)
ContextZone starts — OZS% · O-zone start share 20% (1st pctl)
ContextScore state — TOI by game state trail 34%, tied 40%, lead 26%
ContextCompetition (QoC) — opponents' net xG-RAPM -0.011 (14th pctl)
ContextTeammates (QoT) — teammates' net xG-RAPM -0.122 (3rd pctl)
ContextOn-the-fly — share of 5v5 TOI 66%

Observed values reflect the active rink filters; modeled values are fixed at their full-season fit.

On-ice numbers pair the regular-season shot set with shift-chart membership; skaters and goalies under the display floors are fit but not shown. Modeled rows come from the value artifact keyed to RAPM fit rapm__0cd6d075 on nested_structure__nested_structure_xg__d2ec2662 (the joint-xg structural baseline), with ratings from joint__baseline_xg__f3e3111e (as of 2026-06-14) — separate surfaces from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.