xJawn NHL expected goals

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Daniil Tarasov

G · Florida Panthers

33 GP · 1,514 min 5v5
2025-26 · 5v5
Adjusts with rink filters
on-ice for◀ 5v5 offense
on-ice against5v5 defense ▶
How to read this map

One rink, both ends while Daniil Tarasov is on the ice: what the team generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per 60 minutes of ice time (a player's exposure is time, not games). The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league, the league baseline per team-hour at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · on net · missed · small blocked.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout. On-ice membership comes from the shift charts; attempts without usable shift coverage are absent from both ends. Blocked-shot membership cannot be cross-checked against the play-by-play, so treat blocked-marker detail as softer than the rest.

Observed production

5v5 · on-ice
for against
axis spans ±120% of the goalie cohort average · centre = average · right = more
Goalson-ice
70 49th pctl71 54th pctl
Shotson-ice
643 39th pctl716 49th pctl
Attemptson-ice
1,438 42nd pctl1,440 44th pctl
xGon-ice
60.6 38th pctl65.1 48th pctl
xGF%share of on-ice xG
48.2%35th pctl
0% 50% = even split · gray = cohort middle 50% / 90% 100%

Percentiles rank against the other goalies over the display floor at the selected strength — a non-strength filter (rush, period, …) moves the bars but keeps that strength's spread as the backdrop.

Rolling on-ice xGF%

5v5 · on-ice
Per-game chance share while on the ice, smoothed. drag the slider to set the window

Model estimates

🔒 full season · not filtered
Season-long ratings — the filters above don't apply here.
Goals savedshot-stopping · vs an average goalie
-3.1041st pctl
Shot-stopping only. Puck-handling, rebound control beyond what the shot model sees, and penalties are not in this number — it is not a complete account of a goalie, and it is not comparable to a skater's GAA.
−29.050 = league average+29.05

Ranked against goalies; the band behind the bar is that cohort's spread (p5–p95, middle half brighter, dashed median), so where the bar lands against its band is the rank — the ordinal beside it makes that exact. Zero is an average goalie on the shots this one actually faced, so the number is already adjusted for how dangerous his workload was. There is no above-replacement view: replacement level for goalies is a separate question and has not been measured, and a zero drawn for it would claim otherwise.

Usage & context

descriptive · not modeled
How much Daniil Tarasov played, not how well. Not a modeled component and not a grade — the modeled read is the Saving row above.
Time on iceall situations · min per game
57:37per game
0cohort average100 pctl

Deployment and discipline reads are skater-only: the RAPM usage fit runs on 5v5 skater stints and the penalty denominator counts skaters, so neither describes a goalie.

Full table · all numbers
FamilyStatValue (current slice)
Observed ◆ filtered Goals on-ice for / against 70 / 71
Observed ◆ filtered xG on-ice for / against 60.6 / 65.1
Observed ◆ filtered Shots on-ice for / against 643 / 716
Observed ◆ filtered Attempts on-ice for / against 1,438 / 1,440
Observed ◆ filteredxGF% 48.2%
Modeled 🔒 season Goals saved — shot-stopping · vs an average goalie -3.10 41st pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Goals saved — 51
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Goals saved —
ContextTime on ice — all situations · min per game 57:37 (61st pctl)

Observed values reflect the active rink filters; modeled values are fixed at their full-season fit.

On-ice numbers pair the regular-season shot set with shift-chart membership; skaters and goalies under the display floors are fit but not shown. Modeled rows come from the value artifact keyed to RAPM fit rapm__0cd6d075 on nested_structure__nested_structure_xg__d2ec2662 (the joint-xg structural baseline), with ratings from joint__baseline_xg__f3e3111e (as of 2026-06-14) — separate surfaces from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.