Jake Oettinger
G · Dallas Stars
2025-26 · 5v5
on-ice for◀ 5v5 offense
How to read this map
One rink, both ends while Jake Oettinger is on the ice: what the team generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per 60 minutes of ice time (a player's exposure is time, not games). The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league, the league baseline per team-hour at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · • on net · ◦ missed · small • blocked.
The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout. On-ice membership comes from the shift charts; attempts without usable shift coverage are absent from both ends. Blocked-shot membership cannot be cross-checked against the play-by-play, so treat blocked-marker detail as softer than the rest.
Observed production
5v5 · on-icePercentiles rank against the other goalies over the display floor at the selected strength — a non-strength filter (rush, period, …) moves the bars but keeps that strength's spread as the backdrop.
Rolling on-ice xGF%
5v5 · on-iceModel estimates
🔒 full season · not filteredRanked against goalies; the band behind the bar is that cohort's spread (p5–p95, middle half brighter, dashed median), so where the bar lands against its band is the rank — the ordinal beside it makes that exact. Zero is an average goalie on the shots this one actually faced, so the number is already adjusted for how dangerous his workload was. There is no above-replacement view: replacement level for goalies is a separate question and has not been measured, and a zero drawn for it would claim otherwise.
Usage & context
descriptive · not modeledDeployment and discipline reads are skater-only: the RAPM usage fit runs on 5v5 skater stints and the penalty denominator counts skaters, so neither describes a goalie.
Full table · all numbers
| Family | Stat | Value (current slice) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed ◆ filtered | Goals on-ice for / against | 107 / 92 |
| Observed ◆ filtered | xG on-ice for / against | 103.7 / 97.2 |
| Observed ◆ filtered | Shots on-ice for / against | 993 / 1,053 |
| Observed ◆ filtered | Attempts on-ice for / against | 2,074 / 2,317 |
| Observed ◆ filtered | xGF% | 51.6% |
| Modeled 🔒 season | Goals saved — shot-stopping · vs an average goalie | -3.48 39th pctl |
| Modeled 🔒 season | ↳ Goals saved — | 93 |
| Modeled 🔒 season | ↳ Goals saved — | — |
| Context | Time on ice — all situations · min per game | 59:02 (86th pctl) |
Observed values reflect the active rink filters; modeled values are fixed at their full-season fit.
On-ice numbers pair the regular-season shot set with shift-chart membership;
skaters and goalies under the display floors are fit but not shown. Modeled rows come from the
value artifact keyed to RAPM fit rapm__0cd6d075 on nested_structure__nested_structure_xg__d2ec2662
(the joint-xg structural baseline), with ratings from
joint__baseline_xg__f3e3111e (as of 2026-06-14) —
separate surfaces from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.