xJawn NHL expected goals

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NYI Ilya Sorokin

G · 2025-26 · regular season · 55 GP · 2,606 min 5v5 TOI

On-ice xGF% 5v5
46.2%(16th)
On-ice GF / GA 5v5
101 / 101
GA / xGA 5v5
101 / 119.2
Saving 5v5
+18.2
Saving rating modeled
+0.17(99th)

On-ice xG shot map

How to read this map

One rink, both ends while Ilya Sorokin is on the ice: what the team generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per 60 minutes of ice time (a player's exposure is time, not games). The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league, the league baseline per team-hour at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · on net · missed · small blocked.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout. The league-spread histograms and the xGF% percentile rank against the other goalies over the display floor at the selected strength — a non-strength filter (rush, period, …) moves the player's markers but keeps that strength's spread as the backdrop. On-ice membership comes from the shift charts; attempts without usable shift coverage are absent from both ends. Blocked-shot membership cannot be cross-checked against the play-by-play, so treat blocked-marker detail as softer than the rest.

on-ice for◀ 5v5 offense
on-ice against5v5 defense ▶
Goals50.0%101
50.0%101
xG46.2%102.3
53.8%119.2
xG/6046.2%2.36
53.8%2.74
Shots49.0%1,139
51.0%1,187
Attempts48.6%2,405
51.4%2,546

Rolling on-ice xGF%

Strength splits

On-ice rates are per 60 minutes at that strength (real time-on-ice), own perspective — a skater's PP row is their team's power play while they are out there.

StrengthTOI/gmxGFxGAxGF%xGF/60xGA/60GFGA
5v547.4 102.3119.246.2% 2.362.74101101
Power play5.0 34.23.291.4% 7.480.70286
Penalty kill5.0 3.844.57.9% 0.839.70635

Modeled saving

The decontaminated saving rating from the joint shooter/goalie fit: Ilya Sorokin's per-shot logit margin suppressing goals on attempts at their net, multi-season, time-decayed, positive = good — +0.17 (99th percentile, 19,032 shots informing it). Per-shot quality only: it says nothing about how many attempts a player generates or faces.

On-ice numbers pair the regular-season shot set with shift-chart membership; skaters and goalies under the display floors are fit but not shown. Ratings come from joint__baseline_xg__bbd50047 (as of 2026-06-14). Both are separate surfaces from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.