xJawn NHL expected goals

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Max Domi

C · Toronto Maple Leafs · career →

80 GP · 1,018 min 5v5
2025-26 · 5v5
Adjusts with rink filters
on-ice for◀ 5v5 offense
on-ice against5v5 defense ▶
How to read this map

One rink, both ends while Max Domi is on the ice: what the team generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per 60 minutes of ice time (a player's exposure is time, not games). The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league, the league baseline per team-hour at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · on net · missed · small blocked — and own shots narrows the left end's markers to attempts Max Domi took.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout. On-ice membership comes from the shift charts; attempts without usable shift coverage are absent from both ends. Blocked-shot membership cannot be cross-checked against the play-by-play, so treat blocked-marker detail as softer than the rest.

Observed production

5v5 · on-ice
for against
axis spans ±200% of the forward cohort average · centre = average · right = more
Goalson-ice
35 49th pctl64 99th pctl
Shotson-ice
458 72nd pctl559 96th pctl
Attemptson-ice
914 64th pctl1,126 93rd pctl
xGon-ice
39.6 60th pctl54.5 97th pctl
xGF%share of on-ice xG
42.1%6th pctl
0% 50% = even split · gray = cohort middle 50% / 90% 100%

Percentiles rank against the other forwards over the display floor at the selected strength — a non-strength filter (rush, period, …) moves the bars but keeps that strength's spread as the backdrop.

Rolling on-ice xGF%

5v5 · on-ice
Per-game chance share while on the ice, smoothed. drag the slider to set the window

Model estimates

🔒 full season · not filtered
Season-long ratings — the filters above don't apply here.
creating   preventing   creates both  ·  paler = special teams  ·  solid = on-ice RAPM · hatched = skill rating  ·  ▽ = the total
Shooting
Conversionall shooter stages
outside the PP -0.45 goals vs averagepower play -0.36 goals vs average
-0.8129th pctl
Offense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGF impact
-0.0452nd pctl
Defense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGA, flipped
-5.671st pctl
BlockingBlocking · season-resolved
-0.145th pctl
Special teams
Power playST RAPM · 3-season window
-0.746th pctl
Penalty killST RAPM · season-resolved
+0.0033rd pctl
Disciplinedrawn − taken
-1.454th pctl
GAAgoals above average, this season
Defense impact -5.67 goals vs averageBlocking -0.14 goals vs averageConversion · outside the PP -0.45 goals vs averagePower play -0.74 goals vs averageConversion · power play -0.36 goals vs averageDiscipline -1.45 goals vs average
-8.841st pctl
grouped by game state · 5v5 → power play → kill
−18.600 = league average+18.60

Ranked against forwards; the band behind each bar is that cohort's spread (p5–p95, middle half brighter, dashed median), so where a bar lands against its band is the rank — the ordinal beside it makes that exact. Zero is whichever baseline the toggle selects — the league-average skater, or replacement level — and every row, its band and its ordinal are all drawn against that one baseline, so the bar and the number can never describe different things. Each row's bar grows from zero, so its end IS its value; the composite is the rows stacked, running both ways from zero, so only it carries a to mark the net. The rows sum to the total with nothing left over. The per-shot rating is quality only: it says nothing about how many attempts a player generates or faces, which is what the attempts figure is for.

Usage & context

descriptive · not modeled
The job the coach handed Max Domi, not how well it went. Not a modeled component: each is its own metric (minutes, a rate, a TOI share, or opponents'/teammates' net xG-RAPM), shown with a cohort percentile only where one exists, never added together. Not a grade. The deployment rows are measured over the same 5v5 stints the isolate is fit on (regular season + playoffs); ice time and the penalty rates are all situations, every game — penalties create non-5v5 time, so a 5v5 denominator would inflate every rate.
Time on iceall situations · min per game
14:51per game
Penalties takenminor penalties / 60
1.41per 60 · all situations
Penalties drawnminor penalties / 60
0.91per 60 · all situations
Zone startsOZS% · O-zone start share
51%offensive / (off + def)
Score stateTOI by game state
trail 39%tied 35%lead 26%
trails a lot
Competition (QoC)opponents' net xG-RAPM
+0.022xG/60
Teammates (QoT)teammates' net xG-RAPM
-0.020xG/60
On-the-flyshare of 5v5 TOI
66%of 5v5 TOI
0cohort average100 pctl

A skater absent from the fit counts as exactly cohort average (0) in QoC/QoT — the same claim ridge shrinkage makes. Penalty rates are descriptive only: taken-rate includes defensively correct penalties, and neither side is opponent- or deployment-adjusted. Nothing here is priced in goals.

Full table · all numbers
FamilyStatValue (current slice)
Observed ◆ filtered Goals on-ice for / against 35 / 64
Observed ◆ filtered xG on-ice for / against 39.6 / 54.5
Observed ◆ filtered Shots on-ice for / against 458 / 559
Observed ◆ filtered Attempts on-ice for / against 914 / 1,126
Observed ◆ filteredxGF% 42.1%
Modeled 🔒 season Conversion — all shooter stages -0.81 29th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 179 outside the PP 56th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 50 on the PP 64th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — per-shot skill 40th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGF impact -0.04 52nd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGA, flipped -5.67 1st pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Blocking — Blocking · season-resolved -0.14 5th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Blocking — 1,221 attempts faced 76th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Blocking — per-shot suppression 2nd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Power play — ST RAPM · 3-season window -0.74 6th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Penalty kill — ST RAPM · season-resolved +0.00 33rd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Discipline — drawn − taken -1.45 4th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season GAA -8.84 1st pctl
ContextTime on ice — all situations · min per game 14:51 (48th pctl)
ContextPenalties taken — minor penalties / 60 1.41 (90th pctl)
ContextPenalties drawn — minor penalties / 60 0.91 (63rd pctl)
ContextZone starts — OZS% · O-zone start share 51% (56th pctl)
ContextScore state — TOI by game state trail 39%, tied 35%, lead 26%
ContextCompetition (QoC) — opponents' net xG-RAPM +0.022 (91st pctl)
ContextTeammates (QoT) — teammates' net xG-RAPM -0.020 (43rd pctl)
ContextOn-the-fly — share of 5v5 TOI 66%

Observed values reflect the active rink filters; modeled values are fixed at their full-season fit.

On-ice numbers pair the regular-season shot set with shift-chart membership; skaters and goalies under the display floors are fit but not shown. Modeled rows come from the value artifact keyed to RAPM fit rapm__0cd6d075 on nested_structure__nested_structure_xg__d2ec2662 (the joint-xg structural baseline), with ratings from joint__baseline_xg__f3e3111e (as of 2026-06-14) — separate surfaces from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.