xJawn NHL expected goals

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TBL Oliver Bjorkstrand

R · career · 11 seasons · 5v5 value in goals above league average per 60

GAA/60 by season

How to read this chart

One point per season: GAA/60, the accounting sum of that season's 5v5 value — chances created (Off xG-RAPM) + chances suppressed (Def xG-RAPM) + finishing above expectation — in goals above league average per 60 minutes. The chart opens on the 3-season weighted average: each point is the ice-time-weighted average of the player's GAA/60 over that season and the two before it. A single season of RAPM is noisy (year-over-year correlation ≈ 0.5, the defensive half worse), so the smoothed line is the honest read — it answers "is this level real?" rather than "what did one 1,000-minute sample say?". The Single season toggle shows the raw per-season number instead, swings and all.

The grey bands are the league that same season, in the same view: the brighter fill is the middle half of skaters (25th–75th percentile), the faint fill the 5th–95th, the dashed line the league median — all over skaters with at least 300 minutes of 5v5 ice time (window-summed in the 3-season view). Where a point sits inside the bands is its percentile; the label above it makes it exact. Hollow points fall under the floor — they draw (the line is the career) but get no rank.

The vertical axis is GAA/60 — a linear goals-above-league-average scale, so heights add up. It opens on just the orange net line over the bands. Click Off / Def / Fin in the legend to stack that piece in: chances created and finishing (when positive) fill up from the dotted zero line, chances against fill down when a player is bleeding them, and the net line is their sum. Toggle each one independently — the line says how good, the stack says where the value came from.

Season by season

SeasonTeamTOIOffDefFinGAA/60GAA (goals)Percentile
2025-26TBL866 -0.07-0.05+0.08 -0.04-0.6 43rd
2024-25SEA966 -0.00+0.16+0.09 +0.25+4.0 87th
2023-24SEA1,066 +0.08+0.09+0.08 +0.25+4.4 86th
2022-23SEA1,247 +0.02-0.13+0.11 -0.00-0.1 50th
2021-22CBJ1,101 +0.03+0.07+0.11 +0.21+3.8 90th
2020-21CBJ832 -0.06-0.02+0.08 -0.00-0.1 49th
2019-20CBJ878 +0.11+0.11+0.13 +0.35+5.1 98th
2018-19CBJ979 -0.03+0.08+0.11 +0.16+2.7 89th
2017-18CBJ1,060 -0.01-0.01+0.09 +0.07+1.2 71st
2016-17CBJ373 -0.05+0.00+0.10 +0.06+0.4 71st
2015-16CBJ161 +0.06-0.03+0.13 +0.16+0.4

The table is always the raw single-season record — the ledger the 3-season line smooths. TOI is 5v5 minutes. GAA (goals) is the rate × that season's ice time — the season's total value in goals. Percentile is against that season's qualified skaters, single season.

GAA/60 comes from value artifact value__5766c017 (accounting layer, docs/player-value.md): single-season xG-RAPM plus the modeled finishing rating over the player's own 5v5 ice time; the 3-season view is the trailing ice-time-weighted average of those. It is a separate surface from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.