xJawn NHL expected goals

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NYR Mika Zibanejad

C · career · 15 seasons · 5v5 value in goals above league average per 60

GAA/60 by season

How to read this chart

One point per season: GAA/60, the accounting sum of that season's 5v5 value — chances created (Off xG-RAPM) + chances suppressed (Def xG-RAPM) + finishing above expectation — in goals above league average per 60 minutes. The chart opens on the 3-season weighted average: each point is the ice-time-weighted average of the player's GAA/60 over that season and the two before it. A single season of RAPM is noisy (year-over-year correlation ≈ 0.5, the defensive half worse), so the smoothed line is the honest read — it answers "is this level real?" rather than "what did one 1,000-minute sample say?". The Single season toggle shows the raw per-season number instead, swings and all.

The grey bands are the league that same season, in the same view: the brighter fill is the middle half of skaters (25th–75th percentile), the faint fill the 5th–95th, the dashed line the league median — all over skaters with at least 300 minutes of 5v5 ice time (window-summed in the 3-season view). Where a point sits inside the bands is its percentile; the label above it makes it exact. Hollow points fall under the floor — they draw (the line is the career) but get no rank.

The vertical axis is GAA/60 — a linear goals-above-league-average scale, so heights add up. It opens on just the orange net line over the bands. Click Off / Def / Fin in the legend to stack that piece in: chances created and finishing (when positive) fill up from the dotted zero line, chances against fill down when a player is bleeding them, and the net line is their sum. Toggle each one independently — the line says how good, the stack says where the value came from.

Season by season

SeasonTeamTOIOffDefFinGAA/60GAA (goals)Percentile
2025-26NYR1,172 -0.09-0.05+0.13 -0.02-0.4 46th
2024-25NYR1,043 -0.06-0.01+0.10 +0.03+0.5 56th
2023-24NYR1,286 -0.08+0.07+0.10 +0.08+1.7 64th
2022-23NYR1,179 -0.08-0.03+0.12 +0.01+0.3 54th
2021-22NYR1,398 +0.03-0.00+0.11 +0.14+3.2 82nd
2020-21NYR721 -0.06-0.05+0.11 +0.01+0.1 54th
2019-20NYR823 -0.02-0.15+0.16 -0.01-0.1 50th
2018-19NYR1,182 -0.00+0.07+0.11 +0.18+3.6 92nd
2017-18NYR930 +0.13+0.06+0.14 +0.33+5.2 98th
2016-17NYR888 +0.05+0.01+0.13 +0.20+2.9 93rd
2015-16OTT1,022 +0.16-0.13+0.14 +0.17+3.0 92nd
2014-15OTT1,074 +0.01-0.02+0.11 +0.10+1.9 81st
2013-14OTT781 +0.07-0.04+0.13 +0.16+2.0 80th
2012-13OTT565 -0.13+0.11+0.11 +0.09+0.9 69th
2011-12OTT100 -0.04+0.01+0.09 +0.06+0.1

The table is always the raw single-season record — the ledger the 3-season line smooths. TOI is 5v5 minutes. GAA (goals) is the rate × that season's ice time — the season's total value in goals. Percentile is against that season's qualified skaters, single season.

GAA/60 comes from value artifact value__5766c017 (accounting layer, docs/player-value.md): single-season xG-RAPM plus the modeled finishing rating over the player's own 5v5 ice time; the 3-season view is the trailing ice-time-weighted average of those. It is a separate surface from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.