xJawn NHL expected goals

← Players · ← 2025-26 season

NSH Steven Stamkos

C · career · 16 seasons · 5v5 value in goals above league average per 60

GAA/60 by season

How to read this chart

One point per season: GAA/60, the accounting sum of that season's 5v5 value — chances created (Off xG-RAPM) + chances suppressed (Def xG-RAPM) + finishing above expectation — in goals above league average per 60 minutes. The chart opens on the 3-season weighted average: each point is the ice-time-weighted average of the player's GAA/60 over that season and the two before it. A single season of RAPM is noisy (year-over-year correlation ≈ 0.5, the defensive half worse), so the smoothed line is the honest read — it answers "is this level real?" rather than "what did one 1,000-minute sample say?". The Single season toggle shows the raw per-season number instead, swings and all.

The grey bands are the league that same season, in the same view: the brighter fill is the middle half of skaters (25th–75th percentile), the faint fill the 5th–95th, the dashed line the league median — all over skaters with at least 300 minutes of 5v5 ice time (window-summed in the 3-season view). Where a point sits inside the bands is its percentile; the label above it makes it exact. Hollow points fall under the floor — they draw (the line is the career) but get no rank.

The vertical axis is GAA/60 — a linear goals-above-league-average scale, so heights add up. It opens on just the orange net line over the bands. Click Off / Def / Fin in the legend to stack that piece in: chances created and finishing (when positive) fill up from the dotted zero line, chances against fill down when a player is bleeding them, and the net line is their sum. Toggle each one independently — the line says how good, the stack says where the value came from.

Season by season

SeasonTeamTOIOffDefFinGAA/60GAA (goals)Percentile
2025-26NSH1,089 +0.13+0.02+0.37 +0.52+9.5 99th
2024-25NSH1,119 -0.12-0.14+0.25 -0.01-0.3 48th
2023-24TBL1,125 -0.05-0.23+0.36 +0.08+1.5 63rd
2022-23TBL1,204 -0.07-0.03+0.37 +0.27+5.5 88th
2021-22TBL1,388 +0.06-0.03+0.33 +0.36+8.4 98th
2020-21TBL755 +0.03+0.05+0.28 +0.36+4.6 99th
2019-20TBL748 +0.00-0.02+0.35 +0.33+4.1 97th
2018-19TBL1,137 -0.02-0.04+0.31 +0.25+4.8 97th
2017-18TBL1,313 +0.05+0.06+0.31 +0.43+9.3 100th
2016-17TBL218 +0.07-0.03+0.35 +0.38+1.4
2015-16TBL1,109 -0.03-0.02+0.30 +0.25+4.7 97th
2014-15TBL1,553 +0.01+0.01+0.38 +0.40+10.3 100th
2013-14TBL612 +0.20+0.03+0.37 +0.60+6.1 99th
2012-13TBL780 +0.03+0.05+0.39 +0.47+6.1 99th
2011-12TBL1,354 +0.00-0.07+0.37 +0.31+6.9 99th
2010-11TBL1,435 +0.02+0.06+0.37 +0.44+10.5 100th

The table is always the raw single-season record — the ledger the 3-season line smooths. TOI is 5v5 minutes. GAA (goals) is the rate × that season's ice time — the season's total value in goals. Percentile is against that season's qualified skaters, single season.

GAA/60 comes from value artifact value__5766c017 (accounting layer, docs/player-value.md): single-season xG-RAPM plus the modeled finishing rating over the player's own 5v5 ice time; the 3-season view is the trailing ice-time-weighted average of those. It is a separate surface from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.