xJawn NHL expected goals

← Players · ← 2025-26 season

WSH Alex Ovechkin

L · career · 16 seasons · 5v5 value in goals above league average per 60

GAA/60 by season

How to read this chart

One point per season: GAA/60, the accounting sum of that season's 5v5 value — chances created (Off xG-RAPM) + chances suppressed (Def xG-RAPM) + finishing above expectation — in goals above league average per 60 minutes. The chart opens on the 3-season weighted average: each point is the ice-time-weighted average of the player's GAA/60 over that season and the two before it. A single season of RAPM is noisy (year-over-year correlation ≈ 0.5, the defensive half worse), so the smoothed line is the honest read — it answers "is this level real?" rather than "what did one 1,000-minute sample say?". The Single season toggle shows the raw per-season number instead, swings and all.

The grey bands are the league that same season, in the same view: the brighter fill is the middle half of skaters (25th–75th percentile), the faint fill the 5th–95th, the dashed line the league median — all over skaters with at least 300 minutes of 5v5 ice time (window-summed in the 3-season view). Where a point sits inside the bands is its percentile; the label above it makes it exact. Hollow points fall under the floor — they draw (the line is the career) but get no rank.

The vertical axis is GAA/60 — a linear goals-above-league-average scale, so heights add up. It opens on just the orange net line over the bands. Click Off / Def / Fin in the legend to stack that piece in: chances created and finishing (when positive) fill up from the dotted zero line, chances against fill down when a player is bleeding them, and the net line is their sum. Toggle each one independently — the line says how good, the stack says where the value came from.

Season by season

SeasonTeamTOIOffDefFinGAA/60GAA (goals)Percentile
2025-26WSH991 +0.07-0.07+0.24 +0.23+3.9 86th
2024-25WSH944 +0.01-0.34+0.23 -0.10-1.6 31st
2023-24WSH1,146 -0.04-0.41+0.17 -0.29-5.5 10th
2022-23WSH1,040 +0.19-0.51+0.28 -0.04-0.7 42nd
2021-22WSH1,200 +0.04-0.09+0.23 +0.17+3.5 87th
2020-21WSH705 -0.00-0.08+0.25 +0.17+2.0 89th
2019-20WSH1,074 +0.04-0.08+0.26 +0.22+3.9 94th
2018-19WSH1,338 +0.01-0.17+0.22 +0.07+1.5 72nd
2017-18WSH1,593 +0.19-0.09+0.28 +0.38+10.2 99th
2016-17WSH1,328 +0.12-0.14+0.21 +0.19+4.1 93rd
2015-16WSH1,356 +0.18+0.04+0.24 +0.46+10.4 100th
2014-15WSH1,446 +0.10-0.08+0.24 +0.26+6.4 97th
2013-14WSH1,122 +0.04-0.26+0.22 +0.01+0.1 55th
2012-13WSH847 +0.19-0.14+0.26 +0.30+4.2 94th
2011-12WSH1,410 +0.05-0.11+0.23 +0.16+3.9 91st
2010-11WSH1,387 +0.15+0.04+0.24 +0.44+10.1 100th

The table is always the raw single-season record — the ledger the 3-season line smooths. TOI is 5v5 minutes. GAA (goals) is the rate × that season's ice time — the season's total value in goals. Percentile is against that season's qualified skaters, single season.

GAA/60 comes from value artifact value__5766c017 (accounting layer, docs/player-value.md): single-season xG-RAPM plus the modeled finishing rating over the player's own 5v5 ice time; the 3-season view is the trailing ice-time-weighted average of those. It is a separate surface from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.