xJawn NHL expected goals
Today's puzzle Remember Some Guys: name the skater from his career Play →

← Players

ANA Ryan Kesler

C · career · 9 seasons · value in goals above league average per 60 minutes of ice

GAA/60 by season

How to read this chart

One point per season: GAA/60, the accounting sum of that season's 5v5 value — chances created (Off xG-RAPM) + chances suppressed (Def xG-RAPM) + finishing above expectation — in goals above league average per 60 minutes of 5v5, power-play and penalty-kill ice. The players table shows the same accounting as a season total, which keeps ice time inside the number; this page divides it out, because comparing a player to himself across seasons should not be driven by how long each season was. The chart opens on the 3-season weighted average: each point is the ice-time-weighted average of the player's GAA/60 over that season and the two before it. A single season of RAPM is noisy (year-over-year correlation ≈ 0.5, the defensive half worse), so the smoothed line is the honest read — it answers "is this level real?" rather than "what did one 1,000-minute sample say?". The Single season toggle shows the raw per-season number instead, swings and all.

The grey bands are the league that same season, in the same view: the brighter fill is the middle half of skaters (25th–75th percentile), the faint fill the 5th–95th, the dashed line the league median — all over skaters with at least 300 minutes of 5v5 ice time (window-summed in the 3-season view). Where a point sits inside the bands is its percentile; the label above it makes it exact. Hollow points fall under the floor — they draw (the line is the career) but get no rank.

The vertical axis is GAA/60 — a linear goals-above-league-average scale, so heights add up. It opens on just the orange net line over the bands. Click Off / Def / Fin in the legend to stack that piece in: chances created and finishing (when positive) fill up from the dotted zero line, chances against fill down when a player is bleeding them, and the net line is their sum. Toggle each one independently — the line says how good, the stack says where the value came from.

Season by season

SeasonTeamTOIOffDefFinGAA/60GAA (goals)Percentile
2018-19ANA714 -0.07-0.05-0.09 -0.37-5.9 1st
2017-18ANA633 +0.02+0.03-0.12 -0.20-2.7 10th
2016-17ANA1,423 +0.12-0.02-0.14 -0.07-2.4 37th
2015-16ANA1,171 +0.05-0.01-0.12 -0.02-0.5 52nd
2014-15ANA1,338 -0.01+0.00-0.13 -0.11-3.3 24th
2013-14VAN1,149 +0.10-0.07-0.14 -0.09-2.5 37th
2012-13VAN279 +0.02-0.14-0.11 -0.17-1.1 20th
2011-12VAN1,103 +0.12+0.02-0.13 -0.01-0.2 53rd
2010-11VAN1,480 +0.09+0.02-0.15 -0.02-0.8 50th

2026-27 is not rated yet. The curve and the table end at 2025-26, the last season the value artifact covers; this season's counting stats are on the season card and the season joins the curve once it has enough games to refit.

The table is always the raw single-season record — the ledger the 3-season line smooths. TOI is 5v5 minutes. GAA (goals) is the rate × that season's ice time — the season's total value in goals. Percentile is against that season's qualified skaters, single season.

GAA/60 comes from value artifact value__f7e0a059 (accounting layer, docs/player-value.md): single-season xG-RAPM plus the modeled finishing rating over the player's own 5v5 ice time; the 3-season view is the trailing ice-time-weighted average of those. It is a separate surface from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.