xJawn NHL expected goals

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CHI 2 – 5 VGK

Chicago Blackhawks at Vegas Golden Knights

Final · Sep 29, 2026
2026-27 · regular season

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from CHI's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = CHI power play · PK = VGK power play · Leading = CHI ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

CHI attacks◀ all strengths
VGK attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: CHI attacks the left net, VGK the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from CHI's side and mirrored for VGK: “CHI PP” shows CHI's power-play attempts on the left and VGK's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · regular season
CHI VGK
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
2 4
Expected goals
2.00 3.50
xG%share of xG
36% 64%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 3
Shots on goal
26 36
Attempts
48 62
xG by period · whole game 1st0.6–1.52nd0.6–1.53rd0.8–0.5

The Golden Knights beat the Blackhawks 5–2 at home, and the chances agreed: VGK out-created CHI 3.5–2.0 in expected goals. The Golden Knights power play made 0.8 xG on 7 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative CHI − VGK xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+1−1+2−2CHI AHEAD ▲VGK AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative CHI minus VGK expected goals. Above zero CHI is ahead on chances, below zero VGK is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

CHI
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Tyler BertuzziF16:51+0.40Patrick KaneF21:36+0.03Andrew MangiapaneF5:23-0.07Oliver MooreF13:57-0.08Roman KantserovF17:07-0.11Frank NazarF18:01-0.18Sam RinzelD18:16-0.21Bowen ByramD25:08-0.23Wyatt KaiserD20:37-0.27Jordan GreenwayF14:08-0.38Ryan GreeneF14:43-0.40Artyom LevshunovD19:14-0.44Cole SmithF15:16-0.58Ryan DonatoF12:50-0.67Nick LardisF11:44-0.73Anton FrondellF17:40-0.86Alex VlasicD20:01-0.95Ian ColeD12:40-0.99
VGK
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Tomas HertlF15:45+1.22Victor OlofssonF13:57+1.16Shea TheodoreD21:22+1.10Trevor ConnellyF11:22+1.01Brayden McNabbD18:45+0.69Brett HowdenF17:16+0.69Mitch MarnerF21:21+0.60Jack EichelF18:00+0.59William KarlssonF17:26+0.57Mark StoneF17:11+0.50Noah HanifinD18:51+0.30Jeremy LauzonD17:20+0.20Ivan BarbashevF14:27+0.13Rasmus AnderssonD18:46+0.11Parker WotherspoonD20:08-0.15Braeden BowmanF10:58-0.29Marc GatcombF10:31-0.32Nic DowdF12:37-0.53

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

CHI
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Jordan GreenwayCole SmithRyan Greene10:33-0.09L2Patrick KaneOliver MooreRoman Kantserov9:03-0.26L3Ryan DonatoFrank NazarNick Lardis8:49-0.37L4Tyler BertuzziAndrew MangiapaneAnton Frondell3:43-0.12DEFENCE PAIRSD1Wyatt KaiserArtyom Levshunov16:06-0.39D2Bowen ByramAlex Vlasic13:58-0.55D3Ian ColeSam Rinzel8:48-0.521ST2ND3RD01.251.25
VGK
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1William KarlssonMitch MarnerBrett Howden12:21+0.34L2Mark StoneIvan BarbashevJack Eichel11:14+0.27L3Tomas HertlVictor OlofssonTrevor Connelly8:37+0.80L4Nic DowdMarc GatcombBraeden Bowman6:34-0.51DEFENCE PAIRSD1Noah HanifinJeremy Lauzon17:10+0.20D2Brayden McNabbShea Theodore15:51+0.75D3Rasmus AnderssonParker Wotherspoon15:46-0.191ST2ND3RD01.251.25

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
CHI won the chances VGK won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
KnightGreenwaySmithGreeneKaneMooreKantserovDonatoNazarLardisBertuzziMangiapaneFrondellKaiserLevshunovByramVlasicColeRinzelHartKarlssonMarnerHowdenStoneBarbashevEichelHertlOlofssonConnellyDowdGatcombBowmanHanifinLauzonMcNabbTheodoreAnderssonWotherspoonGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are CHI's skaters, columns VGK's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
CHIJordan Greenway 2nd12:23 0.07
CHIPatrick Kane 3rd4:04 0.06
VGKVictor Olofsson 1st10:30 PP 0.05
VGKTrevor Connelly 1st15:22 0.16
VGKJack Eichel 2nd15:12 0.28
VGKNoah Hanifin 3rd4:43 0.13
VGKMark Stone 3rd17:27 EN 0.53