xJawn NHL expected goals

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FLA 1 – 0 CAR

Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes

Final / OT · Sep 29, 2026
2026-27 · regular season

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from FLA's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = FLA power play · PK = CAR power play · Leading = FLA ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

FLA attacks◀ all strengths
CAR attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: FLA attacks the left net, CAR the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2025-26 regular season, 1312 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from FLA's side and mirrored for CAR: “FLA PP” shows FLA's power-play attempts on the left and CAR's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · regular season
FLA CAR
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
1 0
Expected goals
2.12 2.38
xG%share of xG
47% 53%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 2
Shots on goal
20 15
Attempts
51 37
xG by period · whole game 1st0.5–0.22nd1.2–1.23rd0.3–0.8OT0.1–0.2

The Panthers beat the Hurricanes 1–0 in overtime on the road in a game the chances called about even, FLA 2.1 to CAR 2.4 in expected goals. The Hurricanes power play made 1.5 xG on 17 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

cumulative FLA − CAR xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RDOT+0.5−0.5+1−1FLA AHEAD ▲CAR AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative FLA minus CAR expected goals. Above zero FLA is ahead on chances, below zero CAR is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Skaters

on-ice xG · sorted by net · one game
How to read this

Every skater, sorted by net on-ice expected goals: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time.

FLA
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Sam ReinhartF20:57+0.68Brady TkachukF16:33+0.64Seth JonesD28:59+0.57Matthew TkachukF19:01+0.53Aleksander BarkovF20:32+0.49Carter VerhaegheF18:58+0.44Dmitry KulikovD11:46+0.43Radko GudasD10:45+0.28Sandis VilmanisF11:23+0.19Sam BennettF19:08+0.07Bokondji ImamaF6:03+0.00Niko MikkolaD21:32-0.18Lars EllerF11:34-0.19Garnet HathawayF9:37-0.21Aaron EkbladD20:17-0.57Eetu LuostarinenF13:58-0.60Anton LundellF19:02-0.69Gustav ForslingD22:40-1.36
CAR
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Sebastian AhoF20:56+1.24Nikolaj EhlersF19:24+1.16Jackson BlakeF21:38+1.13Andrei SvechnikovF16:21+0.86Shayne GostisbehereD19:09+0.54Taylor HallF15:27+0.22K'Andre MillerD25:15+0.20Nicolas DeslauriersF5:01+0.01Logan StankovenF19:54-0.04William CarrierF6:46-0.18Sean WalkerD19:10-0.20Eric RobinsonF13:00-0.22Jalen ChatfieldD19:12-0.34Mark JankowskiF13:13-0.35Jordan MartinookF13:50-0.37Jordan StaalF17:17-0.51Jaccob SlavinD22:32-0.52Charles Alexis LegaultD12:40-0.75

Lines & pairs

most-used 5v5 units · when they played · on-ice xG
How to read this

The forward lines and defence pairs that actually played together most at 5v5, each with when it was on the ice across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against/for while the whole unit was out.

FLA
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Aleksander BarkovSam ReinhartBrady Tkachuk12:52+0.51L2Carter VerhaegheSam BennettMatthew Tkachuk9:10+0.13L3Eetu LuostarinenAnton LundellSandis Vilmanis5:56+0.23L4Lars EllerGarnet HathawayBokondji Imama5:13+0.00DEFENCE PAIRSD1Seth JonesNiko Mikkola17:21+0.26D2Aaron EkbladGustav Forsling16:07-0.82D3Dmitry KulikovRadko Gudas9:34+0.281ST2ND3RDOT011
CAR
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FORWARD LINESL1Taylor HallLogan StankovenJackson Blake10:42+0.50L2Jordan StaalJordan MartinookNikolaj Ehlers7:40-0.15L3Sebastian AhoEric RobinsonAndrei Svechnikov7:14-0.04L4Nicolas DeslauriersMark JankowskiWilliam Carrier4:13+0.01DEFENCE PAIRSD1Jaccob SlavinJalen Chatfield18:04-0.34D2Sean WalkerK'Andre Miller16:42-0.20D3Shayne GostisbehereCharles Alexis Legault9:26-0.571ST2ND3RDOT011

Matchups

5v5 · every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
FLA won the chances CAR won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
MarkstromBarkovReinhartTkachukVerhaegheBennettTkachukLuostarinenLundellVilmanisEllerHathawayImamaJonesMikkolaEkbladForslingKulikovGudasBussiHallStankovenBlakeStaalMartinookEhlersAhoRobinsonSvechnikovDeslauriersJankowskiCarrierSlavinChatfieldWalkerMillerGostisbehereAlexis LegaultGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3
How to read this

Rows are FLA's skaters, columns CAR's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.

Goals

xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
FLAGustav Forsling OT4:55 0.02