TOR @ VGK
2026-01-15 · final 5–6 (OT) · what happened, next to what the engine said before puck drop
What happened
TOR attacks the left net, VGK the right — every unblocked attempt the game produced: × goals, • on net, ◦ missed (hover a marker for the shooter and its xG). To compare against the pregame call, switch the Surface to the engine's predicted-xG map — the shots land on top of where the engine expected the game to be played.
| TOR | VGK | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Goals | 6 |
| 2.45 | Expected goals (xG) | 3.70 |
| 1.92 | 5v5 xG | 2.42 |
| 0.30 | Power-play xG | 0.87 |
| 28 | Shots on goal | 33 |
| 55 | Shot attempts | 63 |
Counts come from the shot table behind the maps: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals row can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal.
Goals
| Team | Scorer | Period | Strength | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | Morgan Rielly | 1 | 5v5 | 0.09 |
| TOR | William Nylander | 1 | 5v5 | 0.11 |
| TOR | Auston Matthews | 1 | 5v5 | 0.11 |
| VGK | Pavel Dorofeyev | 1 | PP | 0.08 |
| TOR | John Tavares | 2 | PP | 0.20 |
| VGK | Keegan Kolesar | 2 | 5v5 | 0.49 |
| TOR | Scott Laughton | 3 | 5v5 | 0.20 |
| VGK | Pavel Dorofeyev | 3 | PP | 0.18 |
| VGK | Mark Stone | 3 | 5v5 | 0.56 |
| VGK | Tomas Hertl | 3 | PP | 0.12 |
| VGK | Jack Eichel | 4 | other | 0.36 |
The prediction, scored
Before puck drop the engine made VGK a 65.3% favorite, expecting a 2.33–3.20 game — VGK won 5–6, so the call landed. Every number in this section was issued before the game and is never re-graded.
| pred. xG | actual xG | pred. 5v5 | actual 5v5 | pred. ST | actual PP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 2.33 | 2.45 | 1.68 | 1.92 | 0.47 | 0.30 |
| VGK | 3.20 | 3.70 | 2.21 | 2.42 | 0.78 | 0.87 |
Predicted 5v5 / special-teams portions come from the map's strength splits (one shared scale per team pins the all-strengths total to its expected goals), so they don't sum exactly — the remainder is 4v4, 3v3, and other mixed states. The actual PP column is power-play xG only, the same bucket the map's special-teams view draws.
The pregame score grid
The likeliest finals the engine saw before the game, with what actually happened marked — ■ TOR · ■ VGK.
| Likeliest finals (TOR–VGK) | probability | |
|---|---|---|
| 2–3 | 5.9% | |
| 2–2 | 5.5% | tied after regulation — OT/SO decides |
| 1–3 | 5.0% | |
| 1–2 | 4.7% | |
| 2–4 | 4.7% | |
| 5–5 | 0.6% | what happened — regulation ended tied; VGK won in OT |
Scoreline odds treat the two teams' totals as independent — the engine's known simplification (it slightly under-counts regulation ties; the correlation term is registered v1.1 work). The OT/SO layer is a separate fitted model and is already inside the headline win probability.
The pregame read
The engine made VGK a 65.3% favorite — VGK controls 57.8% of the predicted xG. Of TOR's 2.33 expected goals, 1.68 should come at 5v5 and 0.47 on the power play; VGK projects 2.21 at 5v5 and 0.78 on the power play. The logistic challenger put the home side at 70.4%, Elo at 67.4%.
Tale of the tape
How each team fares on its own, season to date: per-game xG rates with league rank (of 32). Rank 1 is best on every row — orange ranks sit in the top third of the league, gray in the bottom third.
| TOR | VGK | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.62 (27th) | Offense xG for / game |
3.14 (5th) |
| 3.26 (31st) | Defense xG against / game |
2.52 (2nd) |
| 0.56 (30th) | Power play PP xG / game |
0.76 (5th) |
| 0.76 (30th) | Penalty kill PP xG conceded / game |
0.49 (1st) |
Season-to-date form as of the site's latest build, shown for context — the ratings the engine actually used were its own as-of-game-day state. Replay this matchup in the lab →