SJS @ WSH
2026-01-15 · final 3–2 · what happened, next to what the engine said before puck drop
What happened
SJS attacks the left net, WSH the right — every unblocked attempt the game produced: × goals, • on net, ◦ missed (hover a marker for the shooter and its xG). To compare against the pregame call, switch the Surface to the engine's predicted-xG map — the shots land on top of where the engine expected the game to be played.
| SJS | WSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Goals | 2 |
| 2.75 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.76 |
| 2.45 | 5v5 xG | 1.26 |
| 0.30 | Power-play xG | 0.48 |
| 26 | Shots on goal | 23 |
| 53 | Shot attempts | 50 |
Counts come from the shot table behind the maps: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals row can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal.
Goals
| Team | Scorer | Period | Strength | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | Zack Ostapchuk | 2 | 5v5 | 0.28 |
| SJS | Collin Graf | 2 | 5v5 | 0.16 |
| SJS | Pavol Regenda | 2 | 5v5 | 0.19 |
| WSH | Dylan Strome | 2 | PP | 0.05 |
| WSH | Ryan Leonard | 3 | 5v5 | 0.06 |
The prediction, scored
Before puck drop the engine made WSH a 61.8% favorite, expecting a 2.64–3.37 game — SJS won 3–2, so the call missed. Every number in this section was issued before the game and is never re-graded.
| pred. xG | actual xG | pred. 5v5 | actual 5v5 | pred. ST | actual PP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 2.64 | 2.75 | 1.86 | 2.45 | 0.63 | 0.30 |
| WSH | 3.37 | 1.76 | 2.39 | 1.26 | 0.78 | 0.48 |
Predicted 5v5 / special-teams portions come from the map's strength splits (one shared scale per team pins the all-strengths total to its expected goals), so they don't sum exactly — the remainder is 4v4, 3v3, and other mixed states. The actual PP column is power-play xG only, the same bucket the map's special-teams view draws.
The pregame score grid
The likeliest finals the engine saw before the game, with what actually happened marked — ■ SJS · ■ WSH.
| Likeliest finals (SJS–WSH) | probability | |
|---|---|---|
| 2–3 | 5.5% | |
| 2–2 | 4.9% | tied after regulation — OT/SO decides |
| 3–3 | 4.8% | tied after regulation — OT/SO decides |
| 2–4 | 4.6% | |
| 3–2 | 4.3% | what happened |
Scoreline odds treat the two teams' totals as independent — the engine's known simplification (it slightly under-counts regulation ties; the correlation term is registered v1.1 work). The OT/SO layer is a separate fitted model and is already inside the headline win probability.
The pregame read
The engine made WSH a 61.8% favorite — WSH controls 56.0% of the predicted xG. Of SJS's 2.64 expected goals, 1.86 should come at 5v5 and 0.63 on the power play; WSH projects 2.39 at 5v5 and 0.78 on the power play. The logistic challenger put the home side at 62.4%, Elo at 70.1%.
Tale of the tape
How each team fares on its own, season to date: per-game xG rates with league rank (of 32). Rank 1 is best on every row — orange ranks sit in the top third of the league, gray in the bottom third.
| SJS | WSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.70 (24th) | Offense xG for / game |
3.00 (10th) |
| 3.01 (22nd) | Defense xG against / game |
3.08 (27th) |
| 0.64 (22nd) | Power play PP xG / game |
0.66 (18th) |
| 0.75 (27th) | Penalty kill PP xG conceded / game |
0.76 (28th) |
Season-to-date form as of the site's latest build, shown for context — the ratings the engine actually used were its own as-of-game-day state. Replay this matchup in the lab →