xJawn NHL expected goals

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Final · Sep 26, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from NJD's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = NJD power play · PK = NYI power play · Leading = NJD ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

NJD attacks◀ all strengths
NYI attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: NJD attacks the left net, NYI the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 246 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from NJD's side and mirrored for NYI: “NJD PP” shows NJD's power-play attempts on the left and NYI's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
NJD NYI
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
4 1
Expected goals
3.72 2.21
xG%share of xG
63% 37%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
4 1
Shots on goal
26 15
Attempts
61 38
xG by period · whole game 1st1.5–0.52nd1.4–0.33rd0.8–1.4

The Devils beat the Islanders 4–1 on the road, and the chances agreed: NJD out-created NYI 3.7–2.2 in expected goals. At 5v5: NJD 2.8, NYI 1.7.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative NJD − NYI xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+1−1+2−2NJD AHEAD ▲NYI AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative NJD minus NYI expected goals. Above zero NJD is ahead on chances, below zero NYI is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
NJDLuke Evangelista 1st6:13 PP 0.17
NJDArseny Gritsyuk 2nd0:42 0.04
NJDLuke Evangelista 2nd1:01 0.21
NJDDougie Hamilton 2nd14:48 0.17
NYISimon Holmstrom 3rd15:21 0.12
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

NJD
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Jonas SiegenthalerD21:40+1.30Nico HischierF16:11+1.25Luke EvangelistaF14:57+1.11Dougie HamiltonD19:52+0.97Luke HughesD23:31+0.93Cody GlassF12:51+0.61Dawson MercerF14:37+0.51Amadeus LombardiF11:14+0.50Connor BrownF14:05+0.45Timo MeierF13:32+0.41Evan RodriguesF14:15+0.39Jesper BrattF16:12+0.11Jack HughesF17:34+0.05Anthony ManthaF12:33+0.00Arseny GritsyukF14:57-0.02Brenden DillonD17:38-0.11Brett PesceD19:33-0.14Declan ChisholmD16:48-0.54
0.50.5111.51.50Jonas SiegenthalerD18:12+1.26Dougie HamiltonD15:50+1.07Cody GlassF10:12+0.80Connor BrownF11:31+0.63Dawson MercerF12:20+0.59Timo MeierF12:23+0.54Amadeus LombardiF11:04+0.49Luke EvangelistaF12:13+0.48Evan RodriguesF12:13+0.42Luke HughesD17:43+0.40Nico HischierF11:38+0.38Brett PesceD15:23+0.10Arseny GritsyukF11:50+0.06Anthony ManthaF11:56+0.02Brenden DillonD15:51-0.09Jack HughesF13:54-0.51Declan ChisholmD15:24-0.52Jesper BrattF12:48-0.59
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Luke HughesD2:34+0.77Jesper BrattF2:32+0.77Nico HischierF2:32+0.77Jack HughesF2:44+0.63Luke EvangelistaF2:44+0.63Connor BrownF0:10+0.01Jonas SiegenthalerD0:10+0.01Cody GlassF0:10+0.01Amadeus LombardiF0:10+0.01Anthony ManthaF0:32+0.00Arseny GritsyukF0:32+0.00Dougie HamiltonD0:54-0.12Evan RodriguesF0:44-0.14Timo MeierF0:42-0.14
0.250.250Nico HischierF2:01+0.10Evan RodriguesF1:18+0.10Jonas SiegenthalerD3:18+0.02Dougie HamiltonD3:08+0.02Timo MeierF0:27+0.00Brenden DillonD1:42-0.02Declan ChisholmD1:19-0.02Jack HughesF0:51-0.07Jesper BrattF0:47-0.07Arseny GritsyukF2:35-0.07Dawson MercerF2:17-0.07Cody GlassF2:29-0.20Connor BrownF2:24-0.20Brett PesceD4:10-0.24Luke HughesD3:14-0.24
NYI
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Matthew KesselD15:28+0.84Casey CizikasF14:04+0.38Emil HeinemanF17:29+0.35Kyle PalmieriF18:16+0.12Ondrej PalatF14:58+0.04Matias MaccelliF18:02-0.25Jean-Gabriel PageauF15:17-0.41Adam PelechD16:27-0.43Bo HorvatF17:36-0.54Isaiah GeorgeD10:43-0.57Simon HolmstromF22:32-0.59Kashawn AitchesonD16:10-0.60Alexander RomanovD18:18-0.68Victor EklundF15:07-0.75Anthony DuclairF18:25-0.78Calum RitchieF17:08-0.88Scott MayfieldD12:58-1.04Ryan PulockD17:41-1.12
0.50.5111.51.50Matthew KesselD15:21+0.84Jean-Gabriel PageauF12:34+0.36Casey CizikasF13:17+0.25Emil HeinemanF13:42+0.19Adam PelechD13:45+0.16Ondrej PalatF11:35+0.02Simon HolmstromF15:11-0.03Kyle PalmieriF13:38-0.07Matias MaccelliF13:20-0.45Ryan PulockD15:08-0.56Isaiah GeorgeD10:43-0.57Kashawn AitchesonD12:49-0.63Alexander RomanovD17:14-0.64Bo HorvatF12:33-0.73Victor EklundF11:58-0.78Anthony DuclairF15:14-0.81Scott MayfieldD11:58-0.98Calum RitchieF12:25-1.09
0.250.250.50.50Simon HolmstromF4:48+0.21Calum RitchieF4:38+0.21Matias MaccelliF4:37+0.21Bo HorvatF4:34+0.21Kyle PalmieriF4:38+0.18Kashawn AitchesonD3:21+0.03Emil HeinemanF3:13+0.03Anthony DuclairF3:11+0.03Victor EklundF3:09+0.03Ondrej PalatF3:01+0.03Adam PelechD0:16+0.00Jean-Gabriel PageauF0:14+0.00Casey CizikasF0:13+0.00Matthew KesselD0:07+0.00
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Casey CizikasF0:34+0.14Emil HeinemanF0:34+0.14Bo HorvatF0:24-0.01Ondrej PalatF0:22-0.01Scott MayfieldD1:00-0.06Alexander RomanovD0:59-0.06Ryan PulockD2:28-0.59Adam PelechD2:26-0.59Jean-Gabriel PageauF2:29-0.77Simon HolmstromF2:28-0.77

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

NJD
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
NYI
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
NJD won the chances NYI won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
SorokinHorvatHolmstromMaccelliPalmieriPageauHeinemanDuclairRitchieEklundCizikasPalatPulockRomanovPelechKesselMayfieldGeorgeAitchesonGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3FD1D2D3DAllenManthaBrattHughesMeierHischierEvangelistaBrownGlassLombardiRodriguesGritsyukMercerHamiltonSiegenthalerPesceHughesDillonChisholm
How to read this

Rows are NJD's skaters, columns NYI's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.